shinydiscoballs

Kirby is just "pure evil". Good luck to all!

njd1

MEC broadcast yesterday indicated they are not aware of any plans for shutdown of C5, but it's also clear the company isn't telling them everything. Some of that may be legitimate in that UA isn't telling management the entire story and hence they're in the dark as much as we are but management keeping its pilot group in the dark is not without precedent here and elsewhere.

The union said they are encouraged by the commitment to training. If management did not think we would be around long they wouldn't be spending money keeping everyone current and also right-seat training captains to deal with the possibility that they remain in operation but furlough so many people (with FOs generally being at the bottom half of the seniority list) that they can still fly with many / most of the current FOs gone.

I would tend to believe that UAL intends to reduce UAX to a single E145 operator as another poster has suggested, much like GoJet is the 550 operator. That way they can keep the whipsaw going and yet not discard an entire class of assets that still do serve a function in the current, if not the long term future of the UAX network. I would also tend to believe that XJT is worse off than C5 because we're smaller, we have a generally young (and cheap) pilot group, and hence we are a lower-cost operation. But in a fee-for-departure world that may not make much difference. One thing is pretty clear at this point: assuming E145 operations don't cease altogether, they will be a diminishing percentage of UAX operations over the next few years because customers hate the E145 and UAL will never lower fares to compete with the likes of Spirit whose customers would hop on a Dash if it meant getting somewhere for less. That means C5 will be shrinking over time and that does not bode well for advancement here.

When I came back into this industry I did not expect much, and I still don't. I considered sticking around at C5 beyond upgrade, becoming a check airman, etc. But now that upgrades are postponed and management is clearly determined to screw FOs like me currently receiving Dash captain pay (which is essentially the same as Republic 2nd year FO pay, so nothing to write home about in any case) by letting LOA 8 expire, I'll need to GTFO ASAP. Even if no one looks at them for the foreseeable future, my apps are going out.

Whatmeworry

“Does this mean Ann-margret’s is not coming...”

Betasound

It’ll be 7 years at C5 for me in Sept. I sure as hell didn’t think I’d be here this long. Management hasn’t told the union anything because they don’t know. Our management group is not known for being proactive, so this is par for the course (sadly) for Commutair. To me, it’s 50/50 if we shut down at this point. The XJT message is so disheartening on so many levels. Commutair is small and cheap, a plus and a minus. Those 550’s will likely be a boon for UAL and GoJet with all this and a huge dagger to the rest of us. The 145 is hated by passengers ( I still hate deadheading on my own airplane) and if they use less of them, Commutair might be poised to help at least near term. And we could also be totally screwed at this point, which is equally likely.

The company wanting to send WARN notices to all isn’t exactly confidence inspiring. That said, C5 has weathered many storms, but this is a freakin Cat 5 and we’re below sea level. There’s going to be a lot more bad before it gets good.

ive been thinking of jumping ship (I was second stage at B6 before this happened) but only the ACMI cargo guys are hiring really (did 135, no thanks). I’ve had friends contact me about coming to ATI, NAC, Etc. but I don’t know if I want that. Part of me wants to hang on until the end, if it is indeed near. Everyone has their own situation and needs to do whatever they can. Good luck to all of us.

njd1

The 550 is short legged, particularly as compared to the XR, and as a dual class aircraft depends on dual class fares for profitability. Business class travelers aren't coming back as soon as one might think. I know several sales people in other industries who are not only on a company-issued travel ban but their customers have told them to stay home as well. With conventions not allowed either, I just don't see how they're going to fill 550s unless they intentionally operate them at a loss.

My deadheads between EWR and IAD lately have been 175's operated by (guess who) Republic. They've been maybe half full. The one home the other morning was about 25% full. Operating a 175 on a route that is best served by a completely-paid-for E145 is just stupid, particularly when 175s are limited by scope -- those assets are best used elsewhere. And perhaps that's the only saving grace for C5 or C5 in EWR specifically -- loads will be such that 50 seat aircraft make more sense on certain city pairs and we'll be brought in to fly those while Republic takes the more heavily traveled routes.

tallpilot

I agree, the 145/200 and the 550 are both niche aircraft but for different markets. The 145/200 for EAS and other low density/low fare routes and the 550 for low density/high fare routes.

The XR has the advantage of being able to do longer stage length low density routes but for a network carrier those routes might be more economically served from a different hub.

One key question is does the 550 really serve the market well or is it simply a Frankenstein monster cobbled together out of spare parts to comply with scope clauses, much like the 140?

Prima facie, flying paid for airplanes nearly full should be more profitable than flying leased airplanes half full. However the accounting treatment of long term operating leases as well as their effect on the balance sheet change that calculus somewhat. Combine that with multiple contractor arrangements and the layers of financial engineering keep getting deeper. RW also has relatively high minimum block hour requirements in the CPA which is another reason they are flying more than EV and C5.

N6279P

Taking the appropriate steps to make sure the business survives makes him “pure evil”? Ooook.

rickair7777

It is the nature of the regional business. Take note and plan accordingly. When you have options in the future, keep that in mind.

Bahamasflyer

Exactly. That's why I'm full steam ahead working on my degree.

watch

Cares 2.0 may not help if UAL goes to one EMB-145 regional and it is not yours.

Whether Cares 2.0 passes or not, the implication is that between Wisconsin, Commutair, and Expressjet, only one operator will still be flying at all. The other two will shut down and everyone will be on the street, cares 2.0 or no.
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