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Airline Pilot Central Forums (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/)
-   COVID19 (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/covid19/)
-   -   Is COVID-19 really that deadly. (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/covid19/128523-covid-19-really-deadly.html)

majorpilot 03-26-2020 09:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sparta (Post 3012507)
There were roughly 800 positives for Covid-19 between the two cruise ships (712 Diamond Princess and 60+ on the Grand Princess) as per the CDC. Ten of those have so far died. Many more will have complications (lung damage). Most of those on the ship did not catch COVID-19 so they should not be part of the mortality rate. With access to good healthcare roughly 1% of COVID-19 people die. With overwhelmed hospitals and ventilator rationing that number rises to 3-4%. That is why there is an emphasis on flattening the curve. The flu mortality rate varies greatly by season but on average 0.1 % of people who catch the flu die. The CDC is estimating that the death rate from COVID-19 is around 1%. So if you catch COVID-19 it is ten times deadlier than the flu. That is with good hospital care. This is not fake news or media hype.

On a separate note I spent a good deal of the morning searching local drug stores for an oximeter. My wife, a doctor, has COVID-19 and is going on day six of high fever, aches and trouble breathing. She is monitoring her oxygen level so that if/when it gets too low we can get her admitted. She has had the flu and she would want all to know that at least in her case she has never had anything like this. She is worried about dying and wanted me to review our will. We discussed who would raise our children. She is healthy with no underlying medical conditions. Listen to the medical experts and not the news or the politicians. When COVID-19 knocks on your door it will change how you view it.

I am so sorry to hear about your wife. The thoughts and prayers of those of us who still believe in the social contract and our common human condition are with you.

Those on here saying it’s “no big deal” and “get back to work” should look in the mirror and get a grip on their humanity, if they can.

If not, they should march down to the hospital and start volunteering. If it’s no big deal, suck it up cupcake, and help others who cannot help themselves! Oh and don’t forget the sign “I’m declining medical care” around your neck since we won’t waste resources on you. After all, if this is all made up by the media and no worse than a fly, it can’t hurt you right? 0.1% someone said? You can take that risk, right, snowflake?

The reality is that the ones denying science, blaming the media, and thinking it’s no problem will be the most selfish squealing babies when they get a sniffle. Sickening.

BruhPilot 03-26-2020 09:56 AM
[MOD EDIT] You are spreading fear while calm is what we need. Shame on you. Enough real stories are out there for the public to know this virus is real, we don’t need you to pump the virus up.

Regularguy 03-26-2020 10:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by emersonbiguns (Post 3012649)
Tell us what happens when the healthcare system collapses. And we've got an uncontrolled pandemic. And we still have no leadership.

The economy, business and consumer confidence comes roaring back?

Seriously, just give it a couple of weeks and then tell us what you think.

Really!!!!

The health care system isn’t going to collapse and eventually the economy will recover. What will last are people’s memories of the pandemic and its mania.

Stop spreading your mania.

AntiPeter 03-26-2020 10:35 AM
Back to science:

It is estimated over half of the U.K. population has already been infected with COVID-19 and has already developed a herd immunity:

https://theweek.com/speedreads/904584/new-oxford-study-suggests-millions-people-may-have-already-built-coronavirus-immunity

Two weeks ago the study from Imperial College estimated 500,000 UK citizens would die from COVID-19, setting the stage for our current economically destructive policies. As of today the new estimate is less than 20,000 deaths, a reduction of more than 95%:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/n...tist-rn5m6nggk

Sparta 03-26-2020 10:39 AM
You are spreading fear while calm is what we need. Shame on you. Enough real stories are out there for the public to know this virus is real, we don’t need you to pump the virus up.[/QUOTE]

I would not make up a story or wish this on anyone. Shame on you #$@%!

Brahma Fear 03-26-2020 11:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AntiPeter (Post 3012699)
Back to science:

It is estimated over half of the U.K. population has already been infected with COVID-19 and has already developed a herd immunity:

https://theweek.com/speedreads/904584/new-oxford-study-suggests-millions-people-may-have-already-built-coronavirus-immunity

Two weeks ago the study from Imperial College estimated 500,000 UK citizens would die from COVID-19, setting the stage for our current economically destructive policies. As of today the new estimate is less than 20,000 deaths, a reduction of more than 95%:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/n...tist-rn5m6nggk

THIS. I have seen this information from many different and credible sources. There are people on here who seem to want the apocalypse but this is not it.

sourdough44 03-26-2020 11:41 AM
1 Attachment(s)
Here’s a little something to go with your afternoon beer. I screen shot a few headlines that I thought were more suited to the ‘twilight zone’ at the time. Check the date, ask yourself what has become reality. No I don’t have a crystal ball to the future, just saying, predictions run the gamut.

Kenny 03-26-2020 11:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AntiPeter (Post 3012699)
Back to science:

It is estimated over half of the U.K. population has already been infected with COVID-19 and has already developed a herd immunity:

https://theweek.com/speedreads/904584/new-oxford-study-suggests-millions-people-may-have-already-built-coronavirus-immunity

Two weeks ago the study from Imperial College estimated 500,000 UK citizens would die from COVID-19, setting the stage for our current economically destructive policies. As of today the new estimate is less than 20,000 deaths, a reduction of more than 95%:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/n...tist-rn5m6nggk
I think you’ll find that Boris and his band were planning to simply let the virus run riot and were working on the herd immunity concept. After that initial study and number came out, they collectively sh!t themselves and decided to fall in line with the rest of the world, thus the U.K. is on lockdown and the new number.

Bet hey, let’s not let the facts get in the way of a good story. And yes, I watch BBC 1 and BBC News every day.

OVC010CB 03-26-2020 01:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sparta (Post 3012507)
On a separate note I spent a good deal of the morning searching local drug stores for an oximeter. My wife, a doctor, has COVID-19 and is going on day six of high fever, aches and trouble breathing. She is monitoring her oxygen level so that if/when it gets too low we can get her admitted. She has had the flu and she would want all to know that at least in her case she has never had anything like this. She is worried about dying and wanted me to review our will. We discussed who would raise our children. She is healthy with no underlying medical conditions. Listen to the medical experts and not the news or the politicians. When COVID-19 knocks on your door it will change how you view it.
I hope your spouse gets better quickly.

Is she on hypertensive medication? There seems to be some theories that anti hypertensive medications, specifically ACE inhibitors can cause severe lung inflammation and severe cases of COVID.

The Coronavirus Conundrum: ACE2 and Hypertension Edition ? NephJC

tkhayes90 03-26-2020 01:48 PM
march join date, 2 posts.



You are spreading fear while calm is what we need. Shame on you. Enough real stories are out there for the public to know this virus is real, we don’t need you to pump the virus up.[/QUOTE]

SKMarz 03-26-2020 01:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sparta (Post 3012704)
I would not make up a story or wish this on anyone. Shame on you #$@%!
I am sorry you were trolled. I am even sorrier that you and your wife are going through this.

wankel7 03-26-2020 02:07 PM
US - 82k cases 1100 deaths / 4 deaths per mil of pop
Italy - 80k cases 8200 deaths / 136 deaths per mil of poop

spaaks 03-26-2020 06:18 PM
standard fear mongering and media overreaction initially. Missed it by a factor of 25x though? that's negligent

Imperial College scientist who predicted 500K coronavirus deaths in UK adjusts to 20K or fewer




https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...to-20k-or-less

contrails12 03-26-2020 06:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by flightmedic01 (Post 3012620)
Just keep in mind that you don’t want to burn the whole house down trying to kill a spider.
so astute. So at what point is it time to burn the house down? When do we remodel? When’s it time for a fresh coat of paint?

Poss 03-26-2020 06:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spaaks (Post 3013251)
standard fear mongering and media overreaction initially. Missed it by a factor of 25x though? that's negligent

Imperial College scientist who predicted 500K coronavirus deaths in UK adjusts to 20K or fewer




https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...to-20k-or-less

If we are to use that the train of thought, then an estimate of one million revised down from twenty five million would be considered fear mongering. One million deaths...

When an event causes hospitals to be overrun, it's a problem. There will be plenty of time this fall for those responsible for the lack of preparation to spin their actions. Now is not the time.

But hey, it'll all be over by April due to the warm weather right?

Nucflash 03-26-2020 07:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sourdough44 (Post 3012771)
Here’s a little something to go with your afternoon beer. I screen shot a few headlines that I thought were more suited to the ‘twilight zone’ at the time. Check the date, ask yourself what has become reality. No I don’t have a crystal ball to the future, just saying, predictions run the gamut.
No surprise......the Daily Mail is the British equivalent of the New York Post.

flightmedic01 03-26-2020 09:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by contrails12 (Post 3013268)
so astute. So at what point is it time to burn the house down? When do we remodel? When’s it time for a fresh coat of paint?
All I’m saying is that the level of response should match the severity of the problem. According to the CDC, during the 2009-2010 swine flu epidemic, there were 61 million cases in the US, 275,000 hospitalizations, and approximately 12,500 deaths. I don’t recall the entire economy shutting down. The cure must not be worse than the disease.

5and20 03-26-2020 09:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sparta (Post 3011879)
The Diamond Princess and Grand Princess had over 800 positive Covid-19 cases with 10 deaths so far. This is a rate above 1%. The demographics are skewed older but also wealthier with access to good health care (and ventilators). Approximately 15% of the Covid-19 positives require hospitalization and 5% become critical. Most in critical condition will have long term complications if they survive. I will go out on a limb and say human life is more important than the economy or even my job.
Then why do you drive, travel on vacations, take showers, play sports, women having children, all of these activities have 1000s of deaths.

BruhPilot 03-26-2020 09:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by contrails12 (Post 3013268)
so astute. So at what point is it time to burn the house down? When do we remodel? When’s it time for a fresh coat of paint?
The remodel will be stronger government control over everything; the fresh coat of paint will be communism. Unfortunately the contractor is a crook, so we will have wasted our money, and the newly remodeled house will have lost market value and probably fall apart.

majorpilot 03-26-2020 10:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BruhPilot (Post 3013400)
The remodel will be stronger government control over everything; the fresh coat of paint will be communism. Unfortunately the contractor is a crook, so we will have wasted our money, and the newly remodeled house will have lost market value and probably fall apart.

Get out our guns, the commies are coming!

That’s SO 1980. Haven’t you heard? Even the Reds dumped communism, and those same Russians (l mean, literally, like ex-KGB and all) are our bestest friends nowadays, forget those advanced capitalist democracies. It’s right in front of us: yellow draft dodger + red = ORANGE!

And everyone says the “mainstream media” is fear-mongering. All I see there is reasoned analysis and variety of opinions...but who needs THAT?

Commies, huh? So when do we get to shoot ‘em?

ReadOnly7 03-26-2020 11:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by majorpilot (Post 3013410)
Commies, huh? So when do we get to shoot ‘em?
DUH!! When they try to “come and take it”

majorpilot 03-26-2020 11:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReadOnly7 (Post 3013412)
DUH!! When they try to “come and take it”

“It”?! Y’all only have ONE?

emersonbiguns 03-27-2020 05:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BruhPilot (Post 3012661)
[MOD EDIT] You are spreading fear while calm is what we need. Shame on you. Enough real stories are out there for the public to know this virus is real, we don’t need you to pump the virus up.
And you're too chicken$hit to post under your real username, fake n00b.

Quote:
Originally Posted by flightmedic01 (Post 3012620)
Just keep in mind that you don’t want to burn the whole house down trying to kill a spider.
Pest control? False equivalency.

Quote:
Originally Posted by flightmedic01 (Post 3013388)
All I’m saying is that the level of response should match the severity of the problem. According to the CDC, during the 2009-2010 swine flu epidemic, there were 61 million cases in the US, 275,000 hospitalizations, and approximately 12,500 deaths. I don’t recall the entire economy shutting down. The cure must not be worse than the disease.
​​​​Swine flu? False equivalency.

​​​​​​​
Quote:
Originally Posted by 5and20 (Post 3013398)
Then why do you drive, travel on vacations, take showers, play sports, women having children, all of these activities have 1000s of deaths.
​​​​​​​Everyday activities? False equivalency.
​​​​​​​

flightmedic01 03-27-2020 07:09 AM
You keep saying “false equivalency”. No one is saying these viruses are “equivalent” to each other. In fact, each virus is a variant, as they mutate. But there are similarities and we need to respond appropriately based on the facts and not emotion.

AntiPeter 03-27-2020 09:26 AM
It feels like just a few weeks ago when the NY Dept Of Health Director, a NY State Senator and the Mayor of NYC encouraged people to go the theater and act completely normal, implying anyone who didn't do so was racist. When Trump stopped flights from China that was declared racist. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez claimed it was racist when people stopped eating at Asian restaurants. All of that feels like a few weeks ago because it was just a few weeks ago.

It feels like just a few weeks ago when the WHO estimated the death rate of COVID-19 was 3.4%, since then it has been reduced by a magnitude of 6, to approximately 0.5%. That's because it was just a few weeks ago.

Currently, Sweden does not have lockdowns or quarantines. The schools and restaurants are open, and people are living normal lives. Across the bridge in Denmark there are full scale lockdowns and orders to stay in home. The death rate per capita of the two countries is the same.

How can anyone take the epidimologists and politicians seriously at this point? How can you justify the consequences of a voluntary significant recession/economic depression on hysteria and science that has already been proven wrong by several magnitudes? How can you look at Cuomo, de Blasio and the like and not laugh at them?

Yet, Ron Paul is criticized for saying the response to COVID-19 is similar to a hoax. How is it not? A pack of monkeys on stimulants could behave more rationally.

LumberJack 03-27-2020 10:18 AM
Already at capacity, only getting worse.

domino 03-27-2020 10:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LumberJack (Post 3013898)
I shudder to think what the peak is going to look like in 5/6 weeks. Pretty sure no one will flying.

Regularguy 03-27-2020 10:33 AM
If you all are going to share options for the lockdown please check out this video for the Netherlands.

https://youtu.be/ozmh40wwAGc

Regularguy 03-27-2020 10:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by domino (Post 3013912)
I shudder to think what the peak is going to look like in 5/6 weeks. Pretty sure no one will flying.

To bad we can’t bet, because in 5-6 weeks this will probably/highly likely be in our rear view mirrors.

Get a hold of your fears and move on. We will be okay!

Regularguy 03-27-2020 10:45 AM
Is COVID-19 deadly? Yes, but so is the normal flu.

What we are experiencing, beyond the health issues, is a great social upheaval worldwide. No matter what the facts maybe, observe how leaders and people in general are responding.

We are having our phones being used to track movement, threats of arrest, social shaming (also known as turning in your neighbors for failing to meet prescribed behavior and beliefs) governments making promises to protect people, corporations becoming socially responsible and many more I’m sure others can name.

This is a social revolution that will last far beyond the immunity people will develop for the virus.

And please don’t write, “it’s about saving lives!” Because if that were true there’s a whole lot of behaviors and health based subjects which would save more lives than this one virus.

As my Governor has stated, “we now live in a new reality.”

We will survive and get over the virus.

OVC010CB 03-27-2020 11:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LumberJack (Post 3013898)
What do you recommend we do? Lockdowns and quarantines aren’t necessarily effective, as Governor Cuomo now admits:

https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/cuomo-...in-some-cases/

Seems like that is a NYC problem that has nothing to do with the macroeconomy or the aviation industry.

SAABoroowski 03-27-2020 11:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AntiPeter (Post 3013848)
It feels like just a few weeks ago when the NY Dept Of Health Director, a NY State Senator and the Mayor of NYC encouraged people to go the theater and act completely normal, implying anyone who didn't do so was racist. When Trump stopped flights from China that was declared racist. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez claimed it was racist when people stopped eating at Asian restaurants. All of that feels like a few weeks ago because it was just a few weeks ago.

It feels like just a few weeks ago when the WHO estimated the death rate of COVID-19 was 3.4%, since then it has been reduced by a magnitude of 6, to approximately 0.5%. That's because it was just a few weeks ago.

Currently, Sweden does not have lockdowns or quarantines. The schools and restaurants are open, and people are living normal lives. Across the bridge in Denmark there are full scale lockdowns and orders to stay in home. The death rate per capita of the two countries is the same.

How can anyone take the epidimologists and politicians seriously at this point? How can you justify the consequences of a voluntary significant recession/economic depression on hysteria and science that has already been proven wrong by several magnitudes? How can you look at Cuomo, de Blasio and the like and not laugh at them?

Yet, Ron Paul is criticized for saying the response to COVID-19 is similar to a hoax. How is it not? A pack of monkeys on stimulants could behave more rationally.


excellent post.........

LumberJack 03-27-2020 11:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OVC010CB (Post 3013967)
What do you recommend we do? Lockdowns and quarantines aren’t necessarily effective, as Governor Cuomo now admits:

https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/cuomo-...in-some-cases/

Seems like that is a NYC problem that has nothing to do with the macroeconomy or the aviation industry.
Reducing transmission is highly effective, and a lot more effective than any future drug cure.

Numberphile

AntiPeter 03-27-2020 12:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LumberJack (Post 3014015)
Reducing transmission is highly effective, and a lot more effective than any future drug cure.

Numberphile
I invite you to look at Denmark and Sweden. They are both very similiar countries, similar health, age and wealth. Nordic genetics.

Denmark: Lockdowns, most business and schools closed

Sweden: No lockdowns, everything open, government recommending people use common sense

Guess which one has the higher COVID-19 death rate?

Denmark. There has been no proven method for humans to effectively reduce the transmission of the virus.

majorpilot 03-27-2020 12:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AntiPeter (Post 3014061)
I invite you to look at Denmark and Sweden. They are both very similiar countries, similar health, age and wealth. Nordic genetics.

Denmark: Lockdowns, most business and schools closed

Sweden: No lockdowns, everything open, government recommending people use common sense

Guess which one has the higher COVID-19 death rate?

Denmark. There has been no proven method for humans to effectively reduce the transmission of the virus.

Yes, just like the flat earth guy died because the earth he impacted was FLAT. Were it round, he would’ve skimmed along the curve and ricocheted off. <Mic drop!>

crflyer 03-27-2020 12:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AntiPeter (Post 3014061)
I invite you to look at Denmark and Sweden. They are both very similiar countries, similar health, age and wealth. Nordic genetics.

Denmark: Lockdowns, most business and schools closed

Sweden: No lockdowns, everything open, government recommending people use common sense

Guess which one has the higher COVID-19 death rate?

Denmark. There has been no proven method for humans to effectively reduce the transmission of the virus.
If everyone was isolated, it wouldn’t be transmitted. Whether that’s by lockdown (Denmark) or everyone actually keeping to themselves (Sweden). The problem is that too many people don’t care, regardless of the policy where they live.

Also: Sweden has more cases and more deaths...and a higher death/case ratio.

majorpilot 03-27-2020 12:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by crflyer (Post 3014079)
If everyone was isolated, it wouldn’t be transmitted. Whether that’s by lockdown (Denmark) or everyone actually keeping to themselves (Sweden). The problem is that too many people don’t care, regardless of the policy where they live.

Also: Sweden has more cases and more deaths...and a higher death/case ratio.

Nah, it’s better to cherry-pick a data point. Don’t confuse with facts or reasoned analysis. Next thing you’ll be quoting experts and books!

Oh, and is it time for the name-calling now? I’m new to this whole game...but I wanna play!

emersonbiguns 03-27-2020 01:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AntiPeter (Post 3014061)
I invite you to look at Denmark and Sweden. They are both very similiar countries, similar health, age and wealth. Nordic genetics.

Denmark: Lockdowns, most business and schools closed

Sweden: No lockdowns, everything open, government recommending people use common sense

Guess which one has the higher COVID-19 death rate?

Denmark. There has been no proven method for humans to effectively reduce the transmission of the virus.
If you're implying there is a correlation/causation between Sweden's lack of trying to actively reduce the spread of C-19 and their total number of cases/deaths due to C-19 (as compared to Denmark) I'd wager, that given a bit of patience, you'll be able to place Sweden's data on top of Denmark's and you'll see Sweden paying for their delay. Sweden is already mandating social distancing approaches to reduce their spread with a 50 person group max enacted today. They must be succumbing to the hysteria?

OVC010CB 03-27-2020 01:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by crflyer (Post 3014079)
If everyone was isolated, it wouldn’t be transmitted. Whether that’s by lockdown (Denmark) or everyone actually keeping to themselves (Sweden). The problem is that too many people don’t care, regardless of the policy where they live.

Also: Sweden has more cases and more deaths...and a higher death/case ratio.
Sweden has twice the population of Denmark.

emersonbiguns 03-27-2020 01:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OVC010CB (Post 3014116)
Sweden has twice the population of Denmark.
So what's your scientific explanation for Sweden's ability to prevent the spread of Covid-19 by doing less than Denmark?


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