Is COVID-19 really that deadly.
 

No. Nearly the same as the flu.

Italy reported today 99% of their deaths were due to people with pre-existing conditions.
48% of those people had three or more pre-existing conditions.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...MgHij1KiEM11-I

Do you know how many people in the world have "pre existing conditions"? The USA alone is famous for overweight/diabetic/heart problems/etc.

Someone already posted this podcast. This doctor is very well respected. This is NOT like the flu and our country, the world really, is unprepared.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw

how many people do you fly with are overweight or obese and have high blood pressure? Or smokers? How many diabetics in the general population? Something like 40% of the country is on high blood pressure meds.

I heard the linked article dissected today. I tend to believe there is merit in the premise. The authors are well respected.

It’s at least something that should be added to the mix as action is taken.

Here’s the rest of the text of the article in case it says to sign in or subscribe to the WSJ:


If it’s true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.

Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate—2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.

The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills two million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.

Population samples from China, Italy, Iceland and the U.S. provide relevant evidence. On or around Jan. 31, countries sent planes to evacuate citizens from Wuhan, China. When those planes landed, the passengers were tested for Covid-19 and quarantined. After 14 days, the percentage who tested positive was 0.9%. If this was the prevalence in the greater Wuhan area on Jan. 31, then, with a population of about 20 million, greater Wuhan had 178,000 infections, about 30-fold more than the number of reported cases. The fatality rate, then, would be at least 10-fold lower than estimates based on reported cases.

Next, the northeastern Italian town of Vò, near the provincial capital of Padua. On March 6, all 3,300 people of Vò were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%. Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time. That’s more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italy’s case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%.

In Iceland, deCode Genetics is working with the government to perform widespread testing. In a sample of nearly 2,000 entirely asymptomatic people, researchers estimated disease prevalence of just over 1%. Iceland’s first case was reported on Feb. 28, weeks behind the U.S. It’s plausible that the proportion of the U.S. population that has been infected is double, triple or even 10 times as high as the estimates from Iceland. That also implies a dramatically lower fatality rate.

The best (albeit very weak) evidence in the U.S. comes from the National Basketball Association. Between March 11 and 19, a substantial number of NBA players and teams received testing. By March 19, 10 out of 450 rostered players were positive. Since not everyone was tested, that represents a lower bound on the prevalence of 2.2%. The NBA isn’t a representative population, and contact among players might have facilitated transmission. But if we extend that lower-bound assumption to cities with NBA teams (population 45 million), we get at least 990,000 infections in the U.S. The number of cases reported on March 19 in the U.S. was 13,677, more than 72-fold lower. These numbers imply a fatality rate from Covid-19 orders of magnitude smaller than it appears.

How can we reconcile these estimates with the epidemiological models? First, the test used to identify cases doesn’t catch people who were infected and recovered. Second, testing rates were woefully low for a long time and typically reserved for the severely ill. Together, these facts imply that the confirmed cases are likely orders of magnitude less than the true number of infections. Epidemiological modelers haven’t adequately adapted their estimates to account for these factors.
The epidemic started in China sometime in November or December. The first confirmed U.S. cases included a person who traveled from Wuhan on Jan. 15, and it is likely that the virus entered before that: Tens of thousands of people traveled from Wuhan to the U.S. in December. Existing evidence suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.

This does not make Covid-19 a nonissue. The daily reports from Italy and across the U.S. show real struggles and overwhelmed health systems. But a 20,000- or 40,000-death epidemic is a far less severe problem than one that kills two million. Given the enormous consequences of decisions around Covid-19 response, getting clear data to guide decisions now is critical. We don’t know the true infection rate in the U.S. Antibody testing of representative samples to measure disease prevalence (including the recovered) is crucial. Nearly every day a new lab gets approval for antibody testing, so population testing using this technology is now feasible.

If we’re right about the limited scale of the epidemic, then measures focused on older populations and hospitals are sensible. Elective procedures will need to be rescheduled. Hospital resources will need to be reallocated to care for critically ill patients. Triage will need to improve. And policy makers will need to focus on reducing risks for older adults and people with underlying medical conditions.

A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.

Dr. Bendavid and Dr. Bhattacharya are professors of medicine at Stanford. Neeraj Sood contributed to this article.

I heard something like 60% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

I know someone (non airline) that tested positive and within 72 hours after getting a fever he went into critical condition. This happened less than two days ago. Last night he was put on that anti malaria combination and as of tonight he is showing initial signs of recovery. Of course every case is different but I have read more and more stories of the drugs being effective. That would be excellent news if this works on everyone with the Covid-19.

They tend to be senior in their seat as well .... ;)

Great News !! 👍🏻

They don't like the word "obese," they prefer "portly."

Had it in early Feb...tested negative for the flu, but it was the flu I was on my death bed. Actually I'm not sure or my doctor but I had something that lasted to this day...still hacking!

Harvard study finds COVID-19 fatality rate far lower than WHO suggests.

Time to get our citizens back to work folks.
Give it a week or two, stick with the Easter launch and tell the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions they’re quarantined for another 30 days in an abundance of caution. Limit travel overseas.

https://www.westernjournal.com/harva...o31XFdu_uaorBg

The Diamond Princess and Grand Princess had over 800 positive Covid-19 cases with 10 deaths so far. This is a rate above 1%. The demographics are skewed older but also wealthier with access to good health care (and ventilators). Approximately 15% of the Covid-19 positives require hospitalization and 5% become critical. Most in critical condition will have long term complications if they survive. I will go out on a limb and say human life is more important than the economy or even my job.

I agree human life is more important than any job. I don’t think any rational being would argue any different?
That being said there comes an inflection point to where more people will die of economic catastrophe than the virus. Just how long should we wait to start up the economy? Time will tell, but for now let’s wait out the 2 weeks and see if the social distancing method had any impact as well as buy time for our medical facilities to accommodate the influx. After that then I believe that the cure is worse than the disease.

or Senior.

Out of how many total passengers and crew?

This is going to be a year long slog that will require social distancing to lessen and slow the pandemic. We won't be done in two weeks or two months. We will be finished when there is a vaccine or we have herd immunity.

I hear the preference is “person of size.”

Forgot about that one.

https://www.rlsmedia.com/article/coronavirus-kills-united-airlines-ewr-employee-two-others-test-positive?fbclid=IwAR3CVcMFltNN_A09P0owiGup9D-NAcNc0lpylev-seQOfyzPW7HhAQxwPlc

Deadly enough to start dropping rampers.

RE the thread title, “perception is reality”.

At the rate Americans are becoming fat bastards, eventually thin people will be monikered, and labeled “person without size”

What about “Horizontally Enhanced?”

Be nice guys....It takes wide bodies to fly wide bodies

60,000,000 = Total Italian Population
74,386 = Total number of confirmed cases
16,865 = CV19 cases requiring hospitalization
7,503 = CV19 hospitalizations that ended in death

7503/74,386 = 0.1008657543086065‬ mortality rate.

The US CDC has estimated most people infected with COVID-19 are asymptomatic and do not have symptoms. They have also estimated this week the majority of people that are infected with it are never tested and do not seek treatment.

Italy could have millions infected with COVID, we just don’t know.

Assuming the above is correct, your estimate is likely off by several magnitudes.

Germany has done the most testing of any nation and their COVID-19 fatality rate is about 0.3-0.5%. Even with that, people that do not display symptoms are typically not tested.

Lol, single aisle wide bodies in the future...

Not exactly accurate, as the 74386 number is just confirmed cases, not resolved cases with a recovery or death. We wont know how many of that 74386 confirmed (actually 57,521, as the others have resolved) actually survive for another week or two. Italys real numbers for RESOLVED cases are 9362 recovered and and 7503 deaths. That looks way worse than it really is, because they obviously are only testing the most extreme cases.

tl;dr nobody actually knows this number and any claim by anyone to know the death rate of a disease that goes asymtomatic as often as corona does is mere conjecture.

That's wrong. Whatever source you used, it is riddled with errors.

I don't know the numbers on Grand Princess, but there were 3711 passengers and crew on Diamond Princess.
Last count I had, 6 people on Diamond Princess died, but I'll go with 10. Let's divide that number by only Diamond Princess pax and crew, ignoring the thousands aboard Grand Princess.

10/3711 = 0.27% mortality rate. Whatever your source of 1%, it's a made up statistic.
Let's then go with 800 (Diamond Princess cases were lower, with ~half of the positive being asymptomatic):
800/3711 = 21.6% of those exposed caught coronavirus.

No, the numbers indicate that coronavirus isn't much different statistically than the flu. The problem is that there is a wide range of patient reactions to coronavirus, from asymptomatic (for a large minority) all the way to death. However, there are a LOT of annual flu deaths so one has to assume that some become extremely ill when they contract the flu.
Like it or not, using the Diamond Princess as a 100% monitored control group, the death rate there was a bit less than 0.2% and an infection rate of less than 20%.

So, no, coronavirus isn't as bad as the media and a lot of 'experts' make it out to be. But sure, let's all go crazy in media-driven freakout where some become doomsday preppers, hoarding toilet paper, hand sanitizer, food, and a variety of other items which will take more than a year to consume.

There were roughly 800 positives for Covid-19 between the two cruise ships (712 Diamond Princess and 60+ on the Grand Princess) as per the CDC. Ten of those have so far died. Many more will have complications (lung damage). Most of those on the ship did not catch COVID-19 so they should not be part of the mortality rate. With access to good healthcare roughly 1% of COVID-19 people die. With overwhelmed hospitals and ventilator rationing that number rises to 3-4%. That is why there is an emphasis on flattening the curve. The flu mortality rate varies greatly by season but on average 0.1 % of people who catch the flu die. The CDC is estimating that the death rate from COVID-19 is around 1%. So if you catch COVID-19 it is ten times deadlier than the flu. That is with good hospital care. This is not fake news or media hype.

On a separate note I spent a good deal of the morning searching local drug stores for an oximeter. My wife, a doctor, has COVID-19 and is going on day six of high fever, aches and trouble breathing. She is monitoring her oxygen level so that if/when it gets too low we can get her admitted. She has had the flu and she would want all to know that at least in her case she has never had anything like this. She is worried about dying and wanted me to review our will. We discussed who would raise our children. She is healthy with no underlying medical conditions. Listen to the medical experts and not the news or the politicians. When COVID-19 knocks on your door it will change how you view it.

So sorry to hear about your wife.As a medical pro she probably knows the numbers well and so should know her chances of becoming ill enough for hospitalization are pretty low, if she is otherwise healthy, physically and emotionally.

I spent part of yesterday volunteering at our local hospital with an internal medicine doc friend. It’s actually his reassurance I passed along.

Did you find oximeter? We got ours at Amazon some months ago for a sick child
https://www.amazon.com/CHOICEMMED-Bl...s%2C185&sr=8-9

As for estate planning, what state are you in?

They say it eats your lungs away, causing permanent damage. Not that deadly or not, no thanks.

Something I learned from my brother in his responses to some after his little tour in SE Asia....statistics are very absolute when they apply to you.

Though my good wishes won't so much as buy her a cup of coffee....my best wishes and so very sorry she and all who love her are going through this.

Just keep in mind that you don’t want to burn the whole house down trying to kill a spider.

Some do, and will post anecdotal 'data' to prove how their point.

I'll respond to Sparta's post when I can be more civil.
I'm not known to sugar coat things and I don't like when data is ignored to spin a bovine excrement story.

is that you MSNBC/CNN? Quit spreading fake stories about fake illness in your family. If I’m wrong, and you’re being serious shame on me!

Tell us what happens when the healthcare system collapses. And we've got an uncontrolled pandemic. And we still have no leadership.

The economy, business and consumer confidence comes roaring back?

Seriously, just give it a couple of weeks and then tell us what you think.