Originally Posted by WutFace (Post 3036354)

You've been downplaying this from the start. Never underestimate one's ability to refuse to acknowledge they were wrong.

In 2 months, it's already killed over 41,000 Americans, more than the annual fatalities caused by flu. And that's AFTER locking down the whole country. It has a revised R₀ of greater than 5.7, which means it's about 6x more contagious than flu.

I've come to the conclusion that most thick headed individuals will continue to downplay this right up to the point that it hits home for them. A spouse. A parent. A friend. Or even themselves. Until then it's a hoax, or the flu, or a conspiracy to get us to brush our teeth.

Anything but a global killer.

Originally Posted by FTFA

We found R0 is likely to be 5.7 given our current state of knowledge, with a broad 95% CI (3.8–8.9). Among many factors, the lack of awareness of this new pathogen and the Lunar New Year travel and gathering in early and mid-January 2020 might or might not play a role in the high R0.

Originally Posted by BoilerUP (Post 3036672)

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

I believe the 5.7 R0 represents early in the epidemic in Wuhan, not necessarily what was seen in Europe or the US.

Originally Posted by OVC010CB (Post 3036661)

The initial fatality rate estimate for COVID-19 from the WHO was 3.8%. The newest estimate is 0.10-0.36%. 11 to 38 times less than initially feared.

I haven’t read about the newest R0 estimates. Do you have a link? The number I see is 2.6.

As more people become infected and develop antibodies it’s reasonable to assume the R0 decreases as their are less hosts able to transmit the virus.

Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 3036391)

60,000 people died from the flu in 2018 in the US with a vaccine!

Originally Posted by WutFace (Post 3036763)

Regarding the CFR it was never 3.8%, even from the beginning. It varies tremendously depending on age group, and normalized across the population it averages out to about 0.5% CFR. That's never changed.

Regarding the updated R₀, CDC updated it on April 7. Way more contagious than initially predicted.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

So even with a low CFR % of 0.4%, it's so contagious it could infect 200 million Americans. Do the math. That's 800,000 Americans dead.

Originally Posted by AZFlyer (Post 3036825)

Did you remember to normalize for age when doing 'the math'? Doesn't look like it.

Originally Posted by WutFace (Post 3036822)

You want 60k deaths? Just wait 10 more days.
You people are absolutely oblivious to how fast this is killing people.

Originally Posted by WutFace (Post 3036828)

That is the normalized CFR.