flensr

Because of those holidays, when you see big percentage shifts it's better off tracking week over week improvements for this year.

For example, that 42% day we had this Sunday was actually a DECREASE from last Sunday's numbers. That's reasonable considering how schools are starting and other seasonal variations, but it certainly doesn't represent a 9% *increase* like you'd guess when comparing it to last year's numbers.

I've been tracking a 2 week rolling average daily rate increase compared to last year, to help smooth out the effects of the holiday variations. Before the "second wave" we were looking at an average daily improvement of about 0.20% to 0.30%. Since the second wave, we're looking at closer to 0.08% average daily improvement, and much of that improvement in the last month has been due to last year's seasonal drop-off rather than increasing pax counts now. Still, level pax counts at this time of year represent a real improvement since typically we see a pretty dramatic seasonal decrease starting in early August, except of course for the holiday spikes.

pangolin

Not likely.

pangolin

Probably should compare the numbers to last week last year for holiday match up.

RiddleEagle18

Last year this week was Hurricane Dorian also.

Last years numbers will be suppressed.


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pangolin

I expect this Sunday to be very low vs last year.

senecacaptain

9-01: 25.3%

Also, how much total pax is impacted by these hurricanes? I wonder if we are assigning unreasonably high "blame" for low numbers on some hurricanes.

Even if it was 5% we are still at the 30% level for yesterday

In any event, mid-September should start telling us something

Excargodog

It isn’t just the hurricanes...




California is burning...and choking on the smoke.

https://www.newsbreak.com/channels/air-quality

pangolin

Certainly a dip.

bradthepilot

I agree. The hurricanes and week offsets are making it difficult to compare 2020 to 2019. The statistics term is "confounding factor" or "confounding variable". It affects both the dependent (2020) and independent (2019) data sets such that comparing them is flawed.

RiddleEagle18

578,131 (up 38k from last week)
30.6%

This is the first day where last years numbers were down from hurricane Dorian. Almost down 14% over the previous week. (1,889,044 vs 2,188,688)

The gain in total pax count from last week is welcomed though.


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