Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2826508)

Just to clarify but I think you know this. delta predicts up to 7 billion in revenue by 2023. That is a increase of 3.6 billion from current revenue generated by the AMEX program. Those numbers however are not profit. There are large costs associated with the program. Using a typical 15% return the 3.6 billion should up Delta’s profit 540 million dollars a year. That’s a massive increase but does not sound as good as your 7 billion number. Stating they will be making 7 billion is flat out incorrect. Revenue is not profit and the revenue increase from today is 3.6 billion not 7.
The one thing I do know is you are very intelligent. You did not post this by mistake. It was posted intentionally and you knew it was wildly incorrect to claim it was 10 times the improvements we are asking for in the contract. The other strange thing is that if the 10 times the contract cost statement were correct you suggest we will obtain 700 million in contractual improvements. I understand the opener was closer to 2 billion.

Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2826508)

Just to clarify but I think you know this. delta predicts up to 7 billion in revenue by 2023. That is a increase of 3.6 billion from current revenue generated by the AMEX program. Those numbers however are not profit. There are large costs associated with the program. Using a typical 15% return the 3.6 billion should up Delta’s profit 540 million dollars a year. That’s a massive increase but does not sound as good as your 7 billion number. Stating they will be making 7 billion is flat out incorrect. Revenue is not profit and the revenue increase from today is 3.6 billion not 7.
The one thing I do know is you are very intelligent. You did not post this by mistake. It was posted intentionally and you knew it was wildly incorrect to claim it was 10 times the improvements we are asking for in the contract.

Originally Posted by gzsg (Post 2826523)

50% (and I believe it is 70% profit) of $7 Billion is $3.5 Billion in profits annually just from our American Express deal alone.

In my opinion we will see annual profits in excess of $10 Billion by 2023.

Originally Posted by gzsg (Post 2826523)

50% (and I believe it is 70% profit) of $7 Billion is $3.5 Billion in profits annually just from our American Express deal alone.

In my opinion we will see annual profits in excess of $10 Billion by 2023.

Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2826530)

Again you neglect that we currently earn 3.4 billion. They expect to improve that by 3.6 billion to total 7 billion. Several analyst question that number and asked Delta management for details which they declined to provide. Using the most optimistic numbers out there Delta would see a 1.8 billion increase in profit not the 7 billion you claim. Delta management also claimed we would already be making 10 billion a year. They were off a bit.

Originally Posted by Buck Rogers (Post 2826505)

Yes, I would have. I would vote for TA1,(and I suggest almost all the other 2500 guys nearing retirement would too) because with no retro plan formulated, I (they)can't afford the "stand your ground" of turning down TA1 for a better TA2.....at some date in the future.

Viola.....a crappy contract comes to fruition, much to the angst of the more junior pilots, and they're left scratching their heads going, " who woulda thought that was gonna happen"?

A TA that was gonna fail 55%-45% will now pass by about 55%-45% because they can't stand the risk of a long drawn out re-negotiation possibly leading to the scenario I outlined.

Clear now?

Originally Posted by gzsg (Post 2826520)

Sailing

“Joe DeNardi, an analyst with Stifel, long has argued frequent flyer programs are the most profitable piece of every airline, with profit margins approaching 50 percent. Yet few airlines break out detail on their programs, with many viewing them as secret.”

Skift

What say you now Sailing?

I am more optimistic than most. To me all the stars are aligned for the Delta pilots and management to work hand in hand to complete this contract.

The gains to be made far exceed the cost of our well deserved gains.

American, United and Southwest are in complete disarray.

Let’s hope management chooses wisely.

Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2826525)

The strange thing is you only based on your original 7 billion number expect 700 million in contract improvements. 700 million is probably not a contract I would vote to ratify. It’s going to need to be closer to 1 billion.