obx41

Why do you assume those 430 planes are permanently parked?

JamesBond

Mods can. Ax me how I know.

Eldee5

I assumed a 1-2 year recovery time to our current fleet size, from being down 430 planes (V recovery). I’ve seen that 1-2 year figure in a few places, but a total assumption from my part I admit. I was trying to make relatively educated guesses and fall within a ballpark figure(1 standard deviation from the mean or so).

Funk

We may fly a more complete schedule before we have a complete recovery in demand. Why? Broadening city pair connection options and increasing departure and arrival time flexibility has the potential to bring back more total pax, especially the business pax that value completion their time and want to cherry pick the most complete departure times, etc. It is far too early to know how things will play out, nor what the company will attempt to achieve as demand recovers. Will they try to fly a reduced network schedule at higher load factors and reduced fleet size and crew manning, or a lower load factor with more of the fleet and crew force operating? I doubt they even know what they would prefer, nor do I think they want to commit to one path over another just yet. Our sugar daddy has been business travelers paying for premium seats, so maintaining former market share in that segment, or capturing even more in a recovery (via a more complete service offering of city pairs, etc.) might motivate a plan to idle, but not cut the fleet and crew force. Anyone that knows exactly what scenario will play out with economy or what path company leadership wants to take should obviously run for the position of Allmighty.

Eldee5

Those are good arguments. This is a multiple variable differential equation and here we are trying to look at it through a plastic straw.

80ktsClamp

Only a few (some 757, 767, most 90 and I think all 88) are flagged as retired. Most are flagged as temporary parked.

With the furlough prohibition of the bailout, we nearly certainly won’t furlough.

fishforfun

If they would like to edit they are more than welcome. I was doing math without the zeros from the CDC website to lessen button pushes. Whoops. Guess I’ll stick to flying airplanes vs pontificating about a virus.

tripled

Let’s wait another 10 days. We’ve exhausted ourselves in the last 2 weeks with heated political debates and future predictions ranging from “dreadful” to “harmless”. Let’s see how the predictions catch up to reality in the next week or so before making a knee jerk reaction.

BigHitterLlama

My friend on skynet says they’re saying 377 with 242 already parked. Doesn’t know ML v DC.

Hank Kingsley

Hopefully the measures will help. Exponential growth shows 250k by the 31st, and 1 million by 3/11. Be careful out there. One of my kids is quarantined with symptoms.