No one dies in NYC! Everyone that does had COVID! It’s a massacre! The doctors are panicking!!

Projecting Delta’s Loses
 

You know there *is* a middle ground between The Media Made up a Hoax and We’re All Gonna Die, right?

This isn’t a hoax. People are dying from this. The rate at which it’s affecting some parts of the country/world is intense and hasn’t been seen in quite some time, definitely since the age of mass media.

This doesn’t mean that the media isn’t stoking fear and panic. And like any other panic, it feeds on itself until people are afraid to leave the house.

The media is reporting there will be 2M+ U.S. COVID deaths. We will see.

The media isn't saying that. The President himself said if we don't take action, there could be up to 2M deaths.

And to be honest, there needs to be a little "get your **** together because this a really big deal" Even with the stay at home orders and wash your hands PSA, large groups are still congregating in parks or churches and at least 1 out of 4 people on my last trip walked out of the bathroom, some from stalls, without washing their hands.

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Something tells me the rate at which people are dying/could die from one specific cause is not the same as other years and is the somewhat known variable left out of your equation. The experts have said that left unchecked your 3mil number would easily be doubled(IOW heck of a spike to the average rate). To your point however, I'll add roughly 3 million kids die each year worldwide from hunger and there is no sustained coverage about that. Apples and oranges in the media world one could and would say.

A guy by the name of Harry Chaplin tried to point this out 40 years ago. They gave him a Congressional medal of Freedom. That’s all our congress did however.

I just wish we'd go back to the days where news was actually news and not entertainment. I believe the 24 hour news media is the cause of many of the major issues we face today. When news was relayed in a few 30 minute clips throughout the day, they had to report the stuff that REALLY mattered. They didn't spend the entire day (on 4 different news channels) whining about one, out of context, word spoken by a specific person. They even generally had time for a feel good story or two, which today is a rarity. Heck, when people actually see a feel good story, everyone is surprised and turns to each other to say, "see, there is good out there." There's freaking good everywhere, it's just not good for ratings! Sensationalism is the name of the game in this racket that is the 24 hours new....errr...entertainment industry.

If things are put into context then you couldn’t get any clicks.

a person dies every 9.1 minutes in NYC or 155 per day. Now add 42 more per day. But what is typical in the winter? Or spring? Idk.

Context is time consuming though.

But here is an example, NYC hospitals are a war zone right now... but is that abnormal?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUfp6XcX...jpg&name=large

this post says everything about problems today

Wishful thinking will lead us to believe we will have a V shaped recovery. Unfortunately, the science is telling a different story; plan for the W shaped recovery. With strict social distancing and stay at home orders, we are delaying the exposure to as many as possible, but NOT avoiding it altogether. These measures prolong the need for continual distancing, as the virus still remains but few have become immune. When fall rolls around, and we still have no "cure" and lack herd immunity, the risk for another contagion is real and likely will occur again. What does that mean? Policy makers could impose the same measures we see today all over. Or, at the least, businesses & people still do not feel safe travelling. Goodbye economy. I have friends in China, life is NOT back to normal. It's hyper paranoid and frightened about the virus, and you can bet if/when community spread occurs again it'll be pandemonium.

Praying for a cure. Praying that new data reveals this virus has infected+immunized far more than we can see today, lowering the actual R0 and mortality.

Went from record profit sharing to how much percentage of our seniority list will inevitably be furloughed-if this hoax continues past september. Refrigerated trailers as morgue. Global economy at standstill. Airlines repositioning airplanes in the boneyards, some destined to not fly again. Trillion dollar stimulus with talks of more needed. Drug companies scrambling for vaccines or antivirals. Schools closed. Families self isolating. It's just not the same saying your final farewell to love ones on facetime. Not having a funeral. Weird how some folks are not aware they may have underlining issues until they're hospitalized in a tent outside the hospital. The media sure are blowing this out of proportion. If they are, wished they had done it alot earlier. Perhaps we wouldnt be overbidding each other for medical equipment/supplies.

My point was simply that nobody knows what the future looks like a year from now. We’re still not over the hump of this thing, have no idea how quickly we’ll bounce back, if there will be more outbreaks next cold and flu season (most experts assume there will be- W shaped recovery). We do know that this quarter will be a bust, and next quarter will be low. But there are too many variables to accurately guess what things will look like 12-months from now. I get that it gives people a sense of empowerment to try and predict the future, people are looking for some small element of control in an out of control environment. That said, nobody knows what 6 months out looks like, let alone a year from now. Efforts would be better spent planning based on the known variables vs. the unknown IMO. Otherwise as the saying goes, it’s just garbage in/ garbage out.

I think another Great Depression might be a bit extreme, although this is devastating nonetheless. I suspect major corporations will make it through this thing in tact, with some consolidation. The Amazons and Walmart’s of the world at in a great spot. The working middle class and small businesses are being and will continue to be crushed. I think that’s where we’ll see the greatest impact. Entry level retail/service jobs will bounce back once shelter in place orders are lifted. But Many small businesses, self employed workers won’t, and may need to move onto something else.

The travel industry is forever changed. What remains to be seen is how stringent the federal regulations will be once we make it out of this. Analogous to the security post 911 (TSA, airport screening, impenetrable flight deck doors), I wonder what regs HHS/CDC will put in place on the traveling public and travel industry in general? Mandatory temperature checks, Mask and glove wear? Will middle seats be removed from aircraft? There will be some back lash when all is said and done, and right or wrong, I expect there will be some finger pointing at the travel industry (cruises and airlines) for the rapid global spread of this thing.

brilliant!

This would have to apply to buses and trains as well. Even monorails at airports and Disney.

And movie theaters, and concerts, and sporting events, and rallies, and schools, and restaurants, and, and, and...only catacombs and charnel houses will be spared the new "normal"

OK, to go along with your napkin math dismissal of the virus, consider this. Pretty soon 1,000 people a day are gonna be dying of Covid-19. That’s means 12% of your 8,220 deaths/day will be from this virus. I’d say that’s a big deal, worthy of news coverage. Politicians of both parties see this, businesses see this, the stock market sees this and the passengers we don’t fly around anymore see this. We’re well past the stage of this not being a thing.

6 degrees of separation applies to this virus. It'll be interesting when you are in the first degree and know the person on a ventilator. Attitudes will change if it's your wife, son or daughter.

Speaking of the ventilator. I’ve read several articles between yesterday and this morning about testing groups of COVID-19 patients with a combo of the Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin. So far, none of the patients has required intubation, and the effects of the virus have been greatly reduced on average. The people conducting these trials are all epidemiologists. Hope this trend of progress continues.

Spanish Flu had a second wave that was worse than the initial one, we could see that this fall.

People of the west will have to adopt the conscientious behavior of always wearing a mask of some sort when they are ill. This is standard practice in much of the far east but I would see westerners not doing that on an aircraft in fear of not being boarded, It would be a courteous procedure for those that do not have a fever.

Flight Attendants and Gate Agents could have N95 masks issued to them as they are most at risk...the public should understand that this is the new norm.

No pax in the back until the vax.

Ed knows it. Flying isn’t coming back until a vaccine is available and everyone gets it. And it wouldn’t hurt to have “proof of vaccination” before being allowed on an aircraft.

Herd immunity is grossly misunderstood by the non epidemiologist set (that’s us). Some good “epidemiology for dummies” articles out there that make it clear: with a virus this virulent, life won’t return to normal until there s both herd immunity AND a vaccine.

Best guess is a vaccine is at least 12 months away.


(there might be a pharmaceutical prophylactic like Malrone coming through...fingers crossed)

It is important to be reminded of one unfortunate reality: there may never be a vaccine for this.

HIV was discovered in the 80s -- still no vaccine. Just treatments.

There may be approved, effective treatments for Covid in 2020 or there might not.

Given the success of past attempts to make a coronavirus vaccine, you are probably correct, there is no vaccine coming.

Just wait til we see the results of a massive depression. That will result in far more lives lost than the virus, even assuming it doesn't lead to wars which it likely will. At least our sons can share the burden finally with our daughters though, so that will help soften the blow a bit to the men. Not arguing that we should "do nothing" that's a fake choice and a lazy poison the well to frame the debate counterpoint anyway that literally no one is arguing.

But there is a balance and we're headed to an extreme far outside of what is a reasonable response to this.

Good points. There won't be a vaccine for this. There will be somewhat effective treatments.

Delta's losses are going to be staggering. Flying will never return to what it was in Feb 2020 before this started. On the other end of this we will be lucky to be an airline of 7500 pilots. At least one major will liquidate. Maybe things get better by 2025. But then there will be another event...

We can't hide from the fact this is the most damaging event to EVER befall this industry.

I wish I had dollar every time someone said there was never going to be another black swan event. They’re suddenly so quiet.

thank you Professor, now I can put this whole issue to rest

Thank God Fox News is on it !

No Prob T-bo glad I could help:D

Dang, that was quick!! well done.

Timmy memes are always in reserve. :cool:

Yep.

Everything I have come accross says there basically has never been a successful human coronavirus vaccine.

but when we have zero new cases and zero deaths we can drop social distancing. It will be worth it.

I am going to get a leg up on raping, pillaging, and plundering… The end is near!!!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUm-MxUWkAM27kf.jpg

you can see from the model there on April 1st, yesterday, we will have 121,000 hospitalized.

there will be 50,000 alone in ny according to the model on April 1st. There will not be enough beds and ventilator for all of them.

fwiw. The actual number was 31,000 with 18,000 in ny.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUm-dNSW...png&name=large



but let’s liquidate everything based on the models.

Cuomo says we have 6 days until that point now. So the lock down shifted and flattened the curve by 8 days. Imagine if just let this thing run its course and didn’t shut down. I’m not saying this won’t get much worse just that we seemed to have slowed the timeline. I just heard the peak is now forecast for late April, I hope we don’t see the forecast numbers but the data is still coming in.

I have noticed all the posts mocking the term black swan we saw are gone.

Additionally, the term and it's meaning always depended on perspective.

If the discussion was about making up for lost retirement and how much the DC would be worth...all the new guys would scream "black swan", we can't count on that!

If the discussion was about "proactive engagement and strike while you have leverage because you never know what the future will bring" it was like what black swan? I can live under this contract forever.

It was usually the same people, arguing both sides of the "black sean" argument. The only thing that changed their perspective on any given day was which side of the argument put more money in their pocket.

That's just human nature.

I’m sure you had “manufactured panic due to global, marginally-lethal pandemic” on your list of reasons to vote yes to everything.

That’s why the Pentagon is providing 100,000 body bags to FEMA.
That’s why rows of morgue trucks are lined up at New York hospitals.
That’s why there are thousands of extra funeral urns at Chinese morgues.
It’s not the pneumonic plague but I wouldn’t call it manufactured.

As an airline pilot everything should be on your list. Pilots who fail to know this do so at their own risk. I’m glad we had a pragmatic risk adverse policy at our MEC for as long as we did.

Ironically, we are now better off with a MEC who will be more confrontational.