Projecting Delta’s Losses
 

A guess:

1Q2020- $0
2Q2020- $0 (Payroll Grant wipes out losses)
3Q2020- $-4.0Billion (This will be the worse quarter)
4Q2020- $ -2.0 Billion (Revenue begins to pickup/furloughs, minor contract modifications, and paycuts substantially lower costs)

1Q2021- $ -1.3 Billion(Travel returns to 50%, first quarter usually the weakest)
2Q2021- $ 350M Million(Delta returns to profitability)

Covid-19 adds 7.5 Billion in debt to the balance sheet. 10 years ago, Delta had much more debt.. They paid it off over 6 years, and then turned to buybacks and dividends.. We paid it off once, we’ll pay it off again. Long term effect is that it will just delay the return to buybacks and dividends. I think the deal ALPA makes this fall will lead to a small, short contract amendment in 4Q2021. Then back to the table in 2023.

No need to guess, they said it today in the town all. $10B per quarter, and virtually no revenue right now...

With forecasted rates of unemployment of 30%+ along with the tens of thousands of businesses that will fail with a 3-6 month shut down, we're looking at another Great Depression.

Last great depression peaked at 25% and lasted 12 years. Despite throwing government money at the problem, it didn't end for 12 years...when WWII came along, killed over 70 million people, and made the US a powerhouse only because we were the last one standing with an industrial base.

At least a huge portion of the population at the time was still rural, and could grow food. Not so, this time.

The past is not a road map to the future. But the past, as they say, is prelude.

I am not optimistic regarding airlines future. Flying the line now feels like a LARP. (Live Action Role Play).

Not every problem has a solution. Much, much smarter men than me are working the problem though, lucky for us all.

"Top Men", you might say.

When you are forecasting profit/loss a year from now, yes, you do have to guess. Also, $10B per quarter is our USUAL cost, cost saving measures have cut that in half to $5B/quarter. Does anyone else have an informed opinion?

So we should buy the market now?

If I weren't bored out of my mind stuck at home with the world shut down, I could let it go. But that missing S in the title is burning my eyes!

Sorry! Continue the thread.

Apologies, English is my first language...

Website doesn’t allow title corrections. That S is my Scarlett letter.

Like “Johansson”?

Message a mod, they will fix it.

take a "lude" and relax...... probably the most histrionic post I have seen on this site

What’s that sayng, as long as the frist and last leter are rihgt? Right?

Baseline losses would have been 10 billion per quarter. They have removed 5 billion in costs so actual losses will be 5 billion per quarter. Some of that 5 billion is deferring costs that they will still have to pay at a later date.

I wonder if revenue will pickup anytime in the next 3-6 months. What if people begin to travel again, like businesses or sports teams or families going on vacation.

Dow Jones took 25 years to recover. With about a bajillion qualifiers, of course. Starting with: many companies did not survive.

Broader market had some gains back then; maybe you could recover in 5 years or so?

Heck, I know that was in jest: If you're a true believer, there's never been a better time to buy in our lifetimes. Then again, I press buttons when I'm told to for a living.

Once international flying returns people will JUMP!

My wife's father lives in Peru. She told me already she doesn't care how much it costs she wants to see him the second she can fly.

I'm guessing a lot of people have family all over the world.

I have friends itching to travel around the world. Staying home will be the last thing they do. If they can afford it.

All it is going to take is some break in the curve or in the vaccine/treatment status and the pent-up demand will skyrocket Short term pain right now

The qualifier is how many are unemployed and simply do not have the funds for “luxury” like travel both domestic and international.

there will always be plenty of people in this country with money and pent up demand for travel. The problem is air travel in this country has just become too cheap

If they really do pull down 90% of the flying like sailingfun said then expenses will also reduce dramatically.

90% on 23K will make for a strange summer.

I’m not saying we will be back to record profits any time soon but my prediction is our flights will be full again by the end of the year and we will be bringing planes back

I like your plan. Let’s choose this one.

I agree, this is a short term event. What's the media tires of the drama things will return to normal

. This is a media driven event

Man it must be surreal living in one of these weird curated information bubbles...

I am Joe Biden, come with me to the back of the woodshed and I will beat the **** out of you because I don't understand what you're saying

Exactly, but I think the bigger issue right now today, is that air service is totally unreliable. Your flight will likely cancel if you purchase a ticket.

Post from flyer talk from a DM

yeah it definitely was the media that made that Chinese guy eat a bat in Wuhan and made all the doctors panic and beg for ventilators. Do they sensationalize. Of course. But exactly how much should they cover a global pandemic there genius??? I’ll wait. I’m quarantined and have plenty of time

Yeah the media is filling all those of the refrigerated trucks in NYC with bodies.

3 million people did in this country each year (all reasons and causes included). Per day = 8,220. I don't see the media making a big deal about 8,220 bodies/day.

3,000,000 die every year. Assuming 100k dead number holds, this year it'll be 3,100,000 instead of 3,000,000.

All CNN is showing is coronavirus related stuff. That's it. Fox at least spent some air time about a torando that killed people. But CNN is 200% all in on coronavirus. It's like once this virus came, all other news just ceased to exist. :rolleyes:

Cancelled cable, went totally Netflix... Breaking Bad and The Office all day.. it's wonderful

Just finished Breaking Bad, again, today. Then watched El Camino on my commute home.

I watched all 3 seasons of True Detectives on HBO, seasons 1 and 3 were phenomenal and if you're on quarantine then may as well kill 10 hours with s2. Ozark S3 won't make it past the end of the week. Apparently Tiger King is the shizzle so that's next on the list.

You make a great point! Only 3,000 people died on 9/11. The MSM found a way to milk that one for a LONG time! If only they could figure out a way to harness the earning potential of publicizing natural deaths. As you say, there are millions every year, and my hunch is that won't change any time soon!

The media is inciting the panic. I haven’t heard of any doctors “panicking,” and I would venture to guess that you haven’t *personally* witnessed any doctors panicking, so I assume you heard about some panicking doctors via the media, and then you start repeating the idea that “all the doctors are panicking.” Then people read that, and so on.


This is just not true.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/enter...ing/index.html

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/enter...ews/index.html


https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/enter...sic/index.html

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/tech/...sky/index.html


https://www.google.com/amp/s/time.co.../%3Famp%3Dtrue

This is pure sensationalism. Their intent isn’t to relay facts, but to elicit an emotional response. This further contributes to the panic. If you see through the fluff and read the facts about “all the refrigerated trucks,” you see that New York (far and away the hardest-hit city in America) has implemented an existing plan to deal with deaths happening at a higher-than-normal rate. Definitely not business as usual, but these things happen, and the country is trying to deal with it.

You really are all in on this being a media hoax. Clueless you are.

I usually avoid politics on APC, but is it possible that these refrigerator trucks are in place because there are no funerals being conducted, thus keeping the morgues full? I’m legit curious if that’s having an impact (it must right?)

They get put in position any time a hurricane hits, or other natural disaster.

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The one stat not published is the normal daily deaths rate in NYC verses the current rate. I read the normal rate is about 420 deaths per day.

That's what I found as well.

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