Projecting Delta’s Loses
03-31-2020, 03:03 PM
#1
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Joined APC: Jan 2011
Position: Resting
Posts: 376
Projecting Delta’s Losses
A guess:
1Q2020- $0
2Q2020- $0 (Payroll Grant wipes out losses)
3Q2020- $-4.0Billion (This will be the worse quarter)
4Q2020- $ -2.0 Billion (Revenue begins to pickup/furloughs, minor contract modifications, and paycuts substantially lower costs)
1Q2021- $ -1.3 Billion(Travel returns to 50%, first quarter usually the weakest)
2Q2021- $ 350M Million(Delta returns to profitability)
Covid-19 adds 7.5 Billion in debt to the balance sheet. 10 years ago, Delta had much more debt.. They paid it off over 6 years, and then turned to buybacks and dividends.. We paid it off once, we’ll pay it off again. Long term effect is that it will just delay the return to buybacks and dividends. I think the deal ALPA makes this fall will lead to a small, short contract amendment in 4Q2021. Then back to the table in 2023.
1Q2020- $0
2Q2020- $0 (Payroll Grant wipes out losses)
3Q2020- $-4.0Billion (This will be the worse quarter)
4Q2020- $ -2.0 Billion (Revenue begins to pickup/furloughs, minor contract modifications, and paycuts substantially lower costs)
1Q2021- $ -1.3 Billion(Travel returns to 50%, first quarter usually the weakest)
2Q2021- $ 350M Million(Delta returns to profitability)
Covid-19 adds 7.5 Billion in debt to the balance sheet. 10 years ago, Delta had much more debt.. They paid it off over 6 years, and then turned to buybacks and dividends.. We paid it off once, we’ll pay it off again. Long term effect is that it will just delay the return to buybacks and dividends. I think the deal ALPA makes this fall will lead to a small, short contract amendment in 4Q2021. Then back to the table in 2023.
Last edited by mikea72580; 03-31-2020 at 03:34 PM.
03-31-2020, 03:07 PM
#2
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Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: 737 FO
Posts: 630
Originally Posted by mikea72580
A guess:
1Q2020- $0
2Q2020- $0 (Payroll Grant wipes out losses)
3Q2020- $-4.0Billion (This will be the worse quarter)
4Q2020- $ -2.0 Billion (Revenue begins to pickup/furloughs, minor contract modifications, and paycuts substantially lower costs)
1Q2021- $ -1.3 Billion(Travel returns to 50%, first quarter usually the weakest)
2Q2021- $ 350M Million(Delta returns to profitability)
Covid-19 adds 7.5 Billion in debt to the balance sheet. 10 years ago, Delta had much more debt.. They paid it off over 6 years, and then turned to buybacks and dividends.. We paid it off once, we’ll pay it off again. Long term effect is that it will just delay the return to buybacks and dividends. I think the deal ALPA makes this fall will lead to a small, short contract amendment in 4Q2021. Then back to the table in 2023.
1Q2020- $0
2Q2020- $0 (Payroll Grant wipes out losses)
3Q2020- $-4.0Billion (This will be the worse quarter)
4Q2020- $ -2.0 Billion (Revenue begins to pickup/furloughs, minor contract modifications, and paycuts substantially lower costs)
1Q2021- $ -1.3 Billion(Travel returns to 50%, first quarter usually the weakest)
2Q2021- $ 350M Million(Delta returns to profitability)
Covid-19 adds 7.5 Billion in debt to the balance sheet. 10 years ago, Delta had much more debt.. They paid it off over 6 years, and then turned to buybacks and dividends.. We paid it off once, we’ll pay it off again. Long term effect is that it will just delay the return to buybacks and dividends. I think the deal ALPA makes this fall will lead to a small, short contract amendment in 4Q2021. Then back to the table in 2023.
03-31-2020, 03:18 PM
#3
Banned
Joined APC: Feb 2008
Position: The Beginnings
Posts: 1,317
With forecasted rates of unemployment of 30%+ along with the tens of thousands of businesses that will fail with a 3-6 month shut down, we're looking at another Great Depression.
Last great depression peaked at 25% and lasted 12 years. Despite throwing government money at the problem, it didn't end for 12 years...when WWII came along, killed over 70 million people, and made the US a powerhouse only because we were the last one standing with an industrial base.
At least a huge portion of the population at the time was still rural, and could grow food. Not so, this time.
The past is not a road map to the future. But the past, as they say, is prelude.
I am not optimistic regarding airlines future. Flying the line now feels like a LARP. (Live Action Role Play).
Not every problem has a solution. Much, much smarter men than me are working the problem though, lucky for us all.
"Top Men", you might say.
Last great depression peaked at 25% and lasted 12 years. Despite throwing government money at the problem, it didn't end for 12 years...when WWII came along, killed over 70 million people, and made the US a powerhouse only because we were the last one standing with an industrial base.
At least a huge portion of the population at the time was still rural, and could grow food. Not so, this time.
The past is not a road map to the future. But the past, as they say, is prelude.
I am not optimistic regarding airlines future. Flying the line now feels like a LARP. (Live Action Role Play).
Not every problem has a solution. Much, much smarter men than me are working the problem though, lucky for us all.
"Top Men", you might say.
03-31-2020, 03:20 PM
#4
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Jan 2011
Position: Resting
Posts: 376
Originally Posted by beis77
No need to guess, they said it today in the town all. $10B per quarter, and virtually no revenue right now...
When you are forecasting profit/loss a year from now, yes, you do have to guess. Also, $10B per quarter is our USUAL cost, cost saving measures have cut that in half to $5B/quarter. Does anyone else have an informed opinion?
03-31-2020, 03:22 PM
#5
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Jan 2011
Position: Resting
Posts: 376
Originally Posted by deltabound
With forecasted rates of unemployment of 30%+ along with the tens of thousands of businesses that will fail with a 3-6 month shut down, we're looking at another Great Depression.
Last great depression peaked at 25% and lasted 12 years. Despite throwing government money at the problem, it didn't end for 12 years...when WWII came along, killed over 70 million people, and made the US a powerhouse only because we were the last one standing with an industrial base.
At least a huge portion of the population at the time was still rural, and could grow food. Not so, this time.
The past is not a road map to the future. But the past, as they say, is prelude.
I am not optimistic regarding airlines future. Flying the line now feels like a LARP. (Live Action Role Play).
Last great depression peaked at 25% and lasted 12 years. Despite throwing government money at the problem, it didn't end for 12 years...when WWII came along, killed over 70 million people, and made the US a powerhouse only because we were the last one standing with an industrial base.
At least a huge portion of the population at the time was still rural, and could grow food. Not so, this time.
The past is not a road map to the future. But the past, as they say, is prelude.
I am not optimistic regarding airlines future. Flying the line now feels like a LARP. (Live Action Role Play).
03-31-2020, 03:28 PM
#6
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2015
Position: A320 - the one that turns the fuel pumps on
Posts: 106
If I weren't bored out of my mind stuck at home with the world shut down, I could let it go. But that missing S in the title is burning my eyes!
Sorry! Continue the thread.
Sorry! Continue the thread.
03-31-2020, 03:31 PM
#7
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Jan 2011
Position: Resting
Posts: 376
Originally Posted by Lear Driver
If I weren't bored out of my mind stuck at home with the world shut down, I could let it go. But that missing S in the title is burning my eyes!
Sorry! Continue the thread.
Sorry! Continue the thread.
Website doesn’t allow title corrections. That S is my Scarlett letter.
03-31-2020, 04:15 PM
#10
Quality of Lifer
Joined APC: Oct 2015
Position: M88A
Posts: 672
Originally Posted by deltabound
With forecasted rates of unemployment of 30%+ along with the tens of thousands of businesses that will fail with a 3-6 month shut down, we're looking at another Great Depression.
Last great depression peaked at 25% and lasted 12 years. Despite throwing government money at the problem, it didn't end for 12 years...when WWII came along, killed over 70 million people, and made the US a powerhouse only because we were the last one standing with an industrial base.
At least a huge portion of the population at the time was still rural, and could grow food. Not so, this time.
The past is not a road map to the future. But the past, as they say, is prelude.
I am not optimistic regarding airlines future. Flying the line now feels like a LARP. (Live Action Role Play).
Not every problem has a solution. Much, much smarter men than me are working the problem though, lucky for us all.
"Top Men", you might say.
Last great depression peaked at 25% and lasted 12 years. Despite throwing government money at the problem, it didn't end for 12 years...when WWII came along, killed over 70 million people, and made the US a powerhouse only because we were the last one standing with an industrial base.
At least a huge portion of the population at the time was still rural, and could grow food. Not so, this time.
The past is not a road map to the future. But the past, as they say, is prelude.
I am not optimistic regarding airlines future. Flying the line now feels like a LARP. (Live Action Role Play).
Not every problem has a solution. Much, much smarter men than me are working the problem though, lucky for us all.
"Top Men", you might say.
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