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Projecting Delta’s Losses
A guess:
1Q2020- $0 2Q2020- $0 (Payroll Grant wipes out losses) 3Q2020- $-4.0Billion (This will be the worse quarter) 4Q2020- $ -2.0 Billion (Revenue begins to pickup/furloughs, minor contract modifications, and paycuts substantially lower costs) 1Q2021- $ -1.3 Billion(Travel returns to 50%, first quarter usually the weakest) 2Q2021- $ 350M Million(Delta returns to profitability) Covid-19 adds 7.5 Billion in debt to the balance sheet. 10 years ago, Delta had much more debt.. They paid it off over 6 years, and then turned to buybacks and dividends.. We paid it off once, we’ll pay it off again. Long term effect is that it will just delay the return to buybacks and dividends. I think the deal ALPA makes this fall will lead to a small, short contract amendment in 4Q2021. Then back to the table in 2023. |
Originally Posted by mikea72580
(Post 3018960)
A guess:
1Q2020- $0 2Q2020- $0 (Payroll Grant wipes out losses) 3Q2020- $-4.0Billion (This will be the worse quarter) 4Q2020- $ -2.0 Billion (Revenue begins to pickup/furloughs, minor contract modifications, and paycuts substantially lower costs) 1Q2021- $ -1.3 Billion(Travel returns to 50%, first quarter usually the weakest) 2Q2021- $ 350M Million(Delta returns to profitability) Covid-19 adds 7.5 Billion in debt to the balance sheet. 10 years ago, Delta had much more debt.. They paid it off over 6 years, and then turned to buybacks and dividends.. We paid it off once, we’ll pay it off again. Long term effect is that it will just delay the return to buybacks and dividends. I think the deal ALPA makes this fall will lead to a small, short contract amendment in 4Q2021. Then back to the table in 2023. |
With forecasted rates of unemployment of 30%+ along with the tens of thousands of businesses that will fail with a 3-6 month shut down, we're looking at another Great Depression.
Last great depression peaked at 25% and lasted 12 years. Despite throwing government money at the problem, it didn't end for 12 years...when WWII came along, killed over 70 million people, and made the US a powerhouse only because we were the last one standing with an industrial base. At least a huge portion of the population at the time was still rural, and could grow food. Not so, this time. The past is not a road map to the future. But the past, as they say, is prelude. I am not optimistic regarding airlines future. Flying the line now feels like a LARP. (Live Action Role Play). Not every problem has a solution. Much, much smarter men than me are working the problem though, lucky for us all. "Top Men", you might say. |
Originally Posted by beis77
(Post 3018966)
No need to guess, they said it today in the town all. $10B per quarter, and virtually no revenue right now...
When you are forecasting profit/loss a year from now, yes, you do have to guess. Also, $10B per quarter is our USUAL cost, cost saving measures have cut that in half to $5B/quarter. Does anyone else have an informed opinion? |
Originally Posted by deltabound
(Post 3018982)
With forecasted rates of unemployment of 30%+ along with the tens of thousands of businesses that will fail with a 3-6 month shut down, we're looking at another Great Depression.
Last great depression peaked at 25% and lasted 12 years. Despite throwing government money at the problem, it didn't end for 12 years...when WWII came along, killed over 70 million people, and made the US a powerhouse only because we were the last one standing with an industrial base. At least a huge portion of the population at the time was still rural, and could grow food. Not so, this time. The past is not a road map to the future. But the past, as they say, is prelude. I am not optimistic regarding airlines future. Flying the line now feels like a LARP. (Live Action Role Play). |
If I weren't bored out of my mind stuck at home with the world shut down, I could let it go. But that missing S in the title is burning my eyes!
Sorry! Continue the thread. |
Originally Posted by Lear Driver
(Post 3018996)
If I weren't bored out of my mind stuck at home with the world shut down, I could let it go. But that missing S in the title is burning my eyes!
Sorry! Continue the thread. Website doesn’t allow title corrections. That S is my Scarlett letter. |
Originally Posted by mikea72580
(Post 3018998)
That S is my Scarlett letter.
|
Originally Posted by mikea72580
(Post 3018998)
Apologies, English is my first language...
Website doesn’t allow title corrections. That S is my Scarlett letter. |
Originally Posted by deltabound
(Post 3018982)
With forecasted rates of unemployment of 30%+ along with the tens of thousands of businesses that will fail with a 3-6 month shut down, we're looking at another Great Depression.
Last great depression peaked at 25% and lasted 12 years. Despite throwing government money at the problem, it didn't end for 12 years...when WWII came along, killed over 70 million people, and made the US a powerhouse only because we were the last one standing with an industrial base. At least a huge portion of the population at the time was still rural, and could grow food. Not so, this time. The past is not a road map to the future. But the past, as they say, is prelude. I am not optimistic regarding airlines future. Flying the line now feels like a LARP. (Live Action Role Play). Not every problem has a solution. Much, much smarter men than me are working the problem though, lucky for us all. "Top Men", you might say. |
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