Perspective....
 

The Company has said we are burning thru approximately $5 billion a quarter...at least that’s what JL has indicated. If that continued for a year it would be $20 billion.

For perspective, according to the Pilot Contract History put out by Dalpa, LOA 46 saved the Company approximately $1 billion per year.....and we know how draconian those cuts were.

Conclusion........there is now way anything we give is going to impact what happens to Delta by more than a month or two.....and that’s being generous.

Denny

Like 9-11 we're along for the ride.

They din't ask us for operational/financial/social advice in the past & they won't in the future.

You can guarantee that they will do whatever they can to cut our costs. With time they will realize how foolish they appear by not taking retirement & SIL actions like our peers at AA & UAL. Hopefully the speculation on FA leaves & how it relates to our SILs/retirement is true...

With retirement attrition what it is now, I don’t see a retirement package being advantageous. They can just pay minimum line value and have the workforce to immediately move into the market come recovery time or they can pay roughly the same amount and have a large one time training churn that will probably not be in time for quick movement back into the global market.

Considering we are fat on widebody pilots for the next few years, an early-out would mitigate some of the excess A's. The B's would still need to go to the schoolhouse.

The cost of each early-out has to be compared to the cost of several training events that each displacement would create.

Fat widebody pilots?

Isnt that redundant?

Exactly. There is a cost-benefit number that balances training with early retirement and parking hundreds of airplanes. At American it was about 630 pilots. If Delta is truly “leaving no stone unturned” to save money we will have an early retirement program for pilots too. It will be more publicly palatable when one is announced for the other employees.

I see what you did there.

Smart (from management's perspective) would be a huge displacement with generous reinstatement rights. This isn't a one day 9/11 event with security protocols we understand.

Might be cheaper to bench for a while.

I'd have to grab my lawyer and the PWA, but I imagine a June bid with a worst-case scenario:

1) Bare bones widebody staffing.
2) Slightly smaller 320/73N fleet.
3) 88's/90/s/757's and ER's gone.
4) Some expensive 717's gone.
5) 220's are here to stay for the long-term

In light of this I would expect a massive displacement bid with the ability (need my lawyer here) to lessen the displacements within a year if things aren't so dire. I'm sure they can simply publish other AE's during that year to reinstate.

I think Ed is right: it's going to take a vaccine before a lot of people are willing to cram themselves into an airplane (or train, subway, bus, monorail, club, concert hall, stadium ...) And a vaccine is 12-18 months away.

I think we should be following LH's lead and carrying cargo in the cabin.

Take the money, Ed.

Use the Grant's to cover payroll. Use the credit lines and other loans to pay the bills. Take the Gov't loans to stay out of bankruptcy and fend off Dougie Parker.

You remember Dougie Parker..don't you, Ed?

He was one of the only CEO's to take the $250M from the govt for America West after 9/11? He then used it to buy USAir when they went CH11, tried a hostile takeover of Delta, and finally settled on AMR.

Dont put Delta in that situation again over stock options and buy-backs.

Take the money, Ed.

Rerun your numbers for C2015 rates and rules vs C2000 and plus up for the additional 6,000 pilots or so. Believe me, I see your point, but LOA46 and C2000 and today’s cuts are apples and oranges on figures.

Sorry, I don't really understand what you are getting at.

First of all that is directly from the Dalpa contract history document. My point was not to rerun anything with C2015 numbers. It was to point out that, even with draconian cuts similar to LOA 46, any cuts we make are going to be negligible and will only delay the inevitable (if it becomes so) by a month or two.

The one billion is low if you throw in the loss of pension but that's not there now so I just went with the Contract History figure. If you have a problem with that, take it up with Dalpa.

Denny

Denny speaks the truth. Could we get this message out to EVERY pilot at Delta.

I'd challenge anyone to show that a pilot concession had any impact on the parent companies eventual *positive* outcome. We'll wait..

Thanks Gunfighter. Obviously that was supposed to "no" instead of "now." #oops

Denny

We all no what you meant. Your a smart guy.

You're correct..........:);)

Denny

My point was a cut as severe as LOA46 with C2015 and 14,500 pilots is much more than $1billion. You conflate a $1B cut 15 years ago with company expense numbers of $20B/yr today. (15 years ago our revenue and cost was less) I’m not disputing your number or where you got it from, only that in today’s market, an LOA 46 type cut will amount to a much bigger number because of pay rates and work rules and number of pilots. Idk what that number is, $2B/yr? Probably still not enough to stop this sinking ship. Moo point.

​​​​​​Wel that $1B you are talking about was for only the Delta pilots of which there were 10,155 when the cuts were made and our pay rates were pretty close to what they are today believe it or not. You would have to also add in what the NWA side of the fence gave as we are a combined airline now.

I think right now all of us are against giving up anything. That will probably change when the first furlough warning notices happen.

Dont forget the 3 DUI's. He's no quitter

When the cuts came we were down below 8000 working pilots. Probably closer to 7000.

Nor does he believe in Uber. :)

It will be a real , long time before international travel comes back or makes a comeback because companies and people will be scared . Especially if there is any more of this in the fall and winter and CNN ,MSNBC, and all the network news and morning shows continue to panic and scare everyone. It will be many years I think before international travel gets anywhere close to what it was . So they might as well get as many guys to early retire as they can and hopefully that helps with minimal furlough . The 767’s are going buy, buy , so I think it would be cheaper for buyout packages versus the training costs , but this is just my opinion .

its possible some international travel will recover between locations that travelers perceive as clear of a virus threat.

I doubt wuhan or anyplace in mainland china will be viewed as safe for a long time

Isn’t he the same Turd that screwed over 20,000 employees in Pittsburgh? Awesome , state of the Art Terminal that has sat empty for years now . It never did make a comeback . But , I’m not a financial or business guru , but do you guys think that Delta or any of these carriers could be split up ? Or is it just everyone fighting for themselves to survive ? You guys in the forum would know better than I .

or maybe we could do like the United employees did awhile back in the 90’s and all the employees could by Delta when this thing calms down , LOL😂

Pittsburgh did it to itself. Had the highest gate fees in the country and was letting Airtran have free gate fees to encourage competition to lower fares. When US Airways went bankrupt, they wanted to negotiate lower gate fees. Allegheny County refused and offered the exact sames rates. US Airways tried one more time and said if the rates weren't lowered, they would move the whole operation to Philly. Pittsburgh called their bluff, except it wasn't a bluff. Pittsburgh overplayed their hand thinking a new airline would open a hub instantly.

Really? You think if we agree to "give" when and if a furlough announcement is made it will affect the companies decision in regard to furloughs? I do not.

Scoop

Ah....the old ,"got 'em right where we want 'em" ...until you don't. Seems like I've seen that movie....as a matter of fact, I'm watching it right now as I type. Hope I like the ending:)

We didn't get down to that low of numbers until the guys took the money and ran which was after the mass exodus retirement. The cuts came first, not by much but first. I know my number was above 8,000 at the time and I had just returned from furlough.

I’m all for early retirements. Even though you already got your Age 65 windfall.

Got anything other than hyperbole?
I will add...see that smiley face at the end of my post? Fact....3 months ago DALPA did have the company right where we wanted them. Fact 2
...most would agree that as of right now DALPA does not have to company where we want them. Fact 3 ...life is life. Fact 4....life goes on . Fact 5 sometimes life sucks.

I did not cause our predicament regarding leverage. I can not fix the leverage equation. I can find the humor in the vagaries of life.

Well everyone on this property has the age 65 windfall. We all now can fly till 65. Some here think only the senior guys can go to 65 then it changes for them. Lol

I’m also for a good early out package for guys 62 and up like AA. Then maybe less furloughs if that time comes and we all move up quicker when covid is subdued😷.

Any chance you’d go for 61.5 and up on your age limit? :D

Denny

Actually at AA you didn't have to be 62, just in your 62nd year on planet earth, so there ya go!

Can you imagine the posting/furball to come if the company offers an “early out” program outside of DALPA concurrence, that is targeted by BES, not seniority? Seen “sweetheart” deals re retirement in the past. Does anything in the contract prevent something like that? It might not respect seniority but methinks those at the bottom wouldn’t care if they are looking at furlough. That’s how it went down before....divide and conquer. Bottom 1/3 for it to mitigate furloughs, top 1/3 for it because they were hoping it would reach them and if it didn’t, they rapidly move up, then the middle 1/3 throwing the BS flag

I’ll take you’re 61.5 and raise you a 60.