Boy you are making it, the NWA mechanics strike, much more simplistic than what it was. First off they had a 30 day cooling off period which you conveniently leave out. Also the strike took place in mid to late August 2005 with NWA entering into bankruptcy the very next month and gutting pretty much all the contracts. But you are right they got to do whatever they wanted because they were past the amendable date. Wow what a stretch.

 

Bingo... what he is saying is way off in the weeds and away from any likely scenario.

 

Also, it’s not the mediator who releases the parties, it’s the NMB. First they proffer arbitration and then comes the 30 day cooling off period. This is not something that will happen overnight.

But, for the sake of discussion, let’s say SF’s scenario comes to pass and the NMB releases the parties. We, the pilots, now have two choices. Capitulate or Fight. By capitulating the war is already lost but we will problem still have jobs. If we fight (strike) there is the chance the company would cry uncle OR, more likely, the President could convene a PEB. In the end Congress could dictate our contract. I’d much rather fight/strike and take the chance than capitulate. Full disclosure I am in the last few years of my career. Others may feel different. I guess that’s why a strike vote is taken....

Denny

 

Do you see the mediator releasing us soon? We can't meet with her currently. Would an impasse be declared at this point?

If a unilateral work and pay system were implemented, that would be the end of Delta. The union would definitely call for a strike and in a little to no revenue environment requesting a release would be the nuclear option. Unmitigated furloughs without regard to seniority and no work rules other than FARs would be the best way to recover the company. There would be no reason for anyone to stick it out. I'd be looking for work the day a request was submitted because chapter 7 would soon follow. If there is no agreement there will be no work.

 

I think everyone is missing the political side of this. I'm not saying the the current administration has a plan - because they clearly don't have any plan - but if by the middle of the summer a recovery of some sort hasn't happened, there will likely be another stimulus plan, loans, or something. If we're in serious situation, so will American, United, Southwest and all the other airlines.

I don't think having 4 airlines is critical to the United States, but having 2-3 airlines is. Maybe a few mergers will happen down the road, who knows.

The reason to go into bankruptcy is to shed debt and get out of costly agreements - debt that is overwhelming and preventing profits. We clearly don't have a cost problem, it's a revenue problem. No amount of cutting (other than getting rid of 95% of out fleet and employees) will solve our current problem.

After the recovery, if we screw it up, or we have too many expensive airplanes that we can't get rid of, that aren't earning money, then maybe a BK will solve that. But I see a BK as the last ditch effort, after all the political will has died. I think the President likes having all the airlines around and recognizes it's not the airlines's fault we have no revenue.

 

Read what I posted. The earliest time line I see is late fall. If no recovery by the end of the summer we should start planning.

 

Yep - I agree with your timeline.

 

Does the NMB have any sway on the “imposed contract,” or can the company just cut our pay by 90%, furlough out of seniority, gut our scope ...?

 

AFAIK they can pressure each side but cannot impose any thing unless binding arbitration is agreed to........and both parties have to agree to it. Don't see that ever happening. The only way I know of that a contract can be imposed is by Congress. This is the last resort of the RLA.

Denny

 

From reading the thoughts on this thread it appears they will impose as drastic a contract as they dare without triggering a strike vote.