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pb4ufly 10-07-2020 09:53 AM

1 Attachment(s)

Originally Posted by theUpsideDown (Post 3141660)
Well the flu mortality rate is 0.1% of those who get the flu. For Covid the mortality rate is 2% for those who get Covid. Both those numbers a huge oversimplifications but IDK if its quite at joking levels.

Certainly this is a problem where reasonable people can have many viewpoints. Personally I'm a "protect those who need protection" im in my thirties so *makes dismissive hand gesture*.

2% CV19 mortality rate? for 70+ age group perhaps that's true. however, according to the CDC's most recent report the mortality rate for < 70 is exceptionally low:

Buck Rogers 10-07-2020 09:56 AM


Originally Posted by Gunfighter (Post 3141670)
Total US deaths for 2020 are on pace below 2018 and 2019 deaths. Be safe, take precautions, please wear a brain to protect those around you from panic.



Shack........

Jaww 10-07-2020 10:01 AM


Originally Posted by theUpsideDown (Post 3141660)
Well the flu mortality rate is 0.1% of those who get the flu. For Covid the mortality rate is 2% for those who get Covid. Both those numbers a huge oversimplifications but IDK if its quite at joking levels.

Certainly this is a problem where reasonable people can have many viewpoints. Personally I'm a "protect those who need protection" im in my thirties so *makes dismissive hand gesture*.

Source this. You’re wrong.

theUpsideDown 10-07-2020 10:23 AM


Originally Posted by Jaww (Post 3141676)
Source this. You’re wrong.

If I'm wrong why bother sourcing?

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theUpsideDown 10-07-2020 10:31 AM

If anyone is bored and looking for death JH does a neat site. Hurray death.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

Theres also an open source project site with lots of simplified numbers

https://www.covidbyregion.com/

Not that any of us are epidemiologist but somewhat interesting for laymen. Morbid, but it's 2020, go with the flow.

block30 10-07-2020 11:43 AM


Originally Posted by theUpsideDown (Post 3141685)
If I'm wrong why bother sourcing?

​​​​​​

Source it or just plain say you can't or youre wrong.

block30 10-07-2020 11:48 AM

[So anyone is bored and looking for death JH does a neat site. [b]Hurray death.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

Theres also an open source project site with lots of simplified numbers

https://www.covidbyregion.com/

Not that any of us are epidemiologist but somewhat interesting for laymen. Morbid, but it's 2020, go with the flow.[/QUOTE]

hurray destruction of society as we once knew it.
see? I can do that too.

TED74 10-07-2020 12:18 PM


Originally Posted by Buck Rogers (Post 3141668)
So Ted....currently the excess mortality rate in the USA is -4% overall and 0% for 18 to 80 yo and -11% for 80 +... Is the negative excess mortality rate because the weak were "culled" a few months early....and virtually very few of the 18-80 have perished? IOW...they were gonna die anyway very shortly anyway?

Sorry if this is stated too "insensitively" for some. Seriously.


IOW....doesn't it kinda support my "general facts" about death rates and age a coupla post above? Or am I missing something?

I guess I'm honestly not following you here. Are you saying that at this moment, death rates for 80+ are lower than they usually are in this particular week? It's plausible that many of those who would otherwise have died this week in previous years were "taken out" earlier in this year at rates exceeding previous years. If one is trying to (with data) show that the effects of covid are no different than the flu, I'm not seeing it. And these numbers are also AFTER we mostly shut down society and implemented draconian measures to avoid transmission and (later in the year) protect vulnerable populations. I don't have all the answers, but anyone who says covid=flu has (imho) fewer good answers than I do.

From the linked website:

"Besides visualizing excess mortality as a percentage difference, we can also look at the raw death counts as shown here in this chart. The raw death counts help give us a rough sense of scale: for example, the US suffered some 260,000 more deaths than the five-year average between 1 March and 16 August, compared to 169,000 confirmed COVID-19 deaths during that period."

theUpsideDown 10-07-2020 12:23 PM


Originally Posted by block30 (Post 3141713)
Source it or just plain say you can't or youre wrong.

The Johns Hopkins numbers are 2.8% guy, I was rounding down to 2% to make things nice and even keel. But we can't even do that. The mortality rate for people who get Covid isn't as low as the flu, and probably not all that funny was all I was getting at. I don't know what to say people who get angry and tell me to site my numbers AND that I'm wrong at the same time.

The data is the data guys. I'm not saying it's end of the world, just that 2% isn't that funny. 2.8 if you need a specific number. About 12% of the population is 65 and older, something like 4% are 80 and older. That's a fuzzy circle around the folks needing to be super careful for the purposes of Covid.. and hips.

theUpsideDown 10-07-2020 12:28 PM


Originally Posted by pb4ufly (Post 3141673)
2% CV19 mortality rate? for 70+ age group perhaps that's true. however, according to the CDC's most recent report the mortality rate for < 70 is exceptionally low:

Again, just read what I said. Of people who get the 'Vid, 2.8% (I said 2 because it's not like it's crazy high) will die as a result of Covid (through complications, 94%). Those are the numbers from John's Hopkins, it's the same data we're all using, you break it out however you want, but the % mortality for >70 get's kinda scary and I don't know how it contributes to the discussion.


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