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-   -   Predicting the future (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/delta/133530-predicting-future.html)

theUpsideDown 04-04-2021 03:39 PM

Predicting the future
 
So, this might be better as a poll, but lets play a game. Monday, our CEO is gonna have to explain yet another holiday screwup on staffing. So what takes the blame? How does he phrase it?

Write up three half truths he'll tell. Winner gets a giant prize, bragging rights and everyone has to write recommendation letters for winner to apply for the ceo position when Ed gets canned.
I Think he'll hit three bullet points.
  • This weekend shows we have addressed some staffing issues but more work is to be done. As you know we had 300 cancellations for a smaller schedule. Now we only had 80 cancellations for a larger, more complex schedule.
  • We've already returned all our pilots to active status but we are experiencing a bottleneck on training as we've never had to do this before, and we're taking our commitment to the customers seriously
  • We will maintain our commitment to operation excellence.

Trip7 04-04-2021 03:46 PM


Originally Posted by theUpsideDown (Post 3216758)
So, this might be better as a poll, but lets play a game. Monday, our CEO is gonna have to explain yet another holiday screwup on staffing. So what takes the blame? How does he phrase it?



Write up three half truths he'll tell. Winner gets a giant prize, bragging rights and everyone has to write recommendation letters for winner to apply for the ceo position when Ed gets canned.

I Think he'll hit three bullet points.
  • This weekend shows we have addressed some staffing issues but more work is to be done. As you know we had 300 cancellations for a smaller schedule. Now we only had 80 cancellations for a larger, more complex schedule.
  • We've already returned all our pilots to active status but we are experiencing a bottleneck on training as we've never had to do this before, and we're taking our commitment to the customers seriously
  • We will maintain our commitment to operation excellence.

This was the third major holiday in a row. Thanksgiving, Xmas, and Easter have been disasters. Memorial Day will be another disaster. The Cross Divisional Tiger team excuse won't work this time. If they were somewhat honest they would say we were overly conservative with our Pandemic recovery planning and are trying to catch back up.

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tennisguru 04-04-2021 03:58 PM


Originally Posted by Trip7 (Post 3216765)
This was the third major holiday in a row. Thanksgiving, Xmas, and Easter have been disasters. Memorial Day will be another disaster. The Cross Divisional Tiger team excuse won't work this time. If they were somewhat honest they would say we were overly conservative with our Pandemic recovery planning and are trying to catch back up.

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That's literally all I want from them. Not some huge mea culpa detailed every dumb move they've done, and there's been lots of those, but it'd be incredibly refreshing for just a tiny amount of honesty and humility that while they tried to guess, their guess was wrong and they're just trying to readjust as quickly as they can. Part of what worries me over the short- to mid-term is their seeming complete unwillingness to actually admit what the root cause of all these holiday meltdowns have been. If they're unwilling or unable to even do that I have little faith in their ability to not keep stubbing their operational toes going forward.

Air Stang 7 04-04-2021 03:58 PM

We believe science is real, love is love, black lives matter, women's rights are human rights. Along with tons of other empty platitudes so it's fantastic!! Very stunning, very brave airline operation nobody will question.

FL370esq 04-04-2021 05:03 PM


Originally Posted by Air Stang 7 (Post 3216769)
We believe science is real, love is love, black lives matter, women's rights are human rights. Along with tons of other empty platitudes so it's fantastic!! Very stunning, very brave airline operation nobody will question.

Yup....and, despite all that beautiful goodness, we are gonna xcl the $&#t out of Memorial Day weekend. #Winning! #FireEd!

DeltaboundRedux 04-04-2021 05:03 PM

Perusing the bio's of the Delta Board of Directors members would suggest that the current CEO will probably have plenty of support for recent public decisions. (Ex Coca-Cola, Home Depot, etc.) Ex very senior level US government types as well; there is a cultural zeitgeist that skews heavily in one direction at that level.

I don't pretend to understand Fortune 500 company boardroom politics in the least; however, no one gets to the top of a huge company without being very, very canny about climbing the greasy poll for decades. Don't sell the guy short.

I will say that our board appears to be extremely China friendly. That was a bit of a surprise.

This company's future is tied to the good fortunes and decisions of our CEO. For all our sakes, I wish him well.

Phins2right 04-04-2021 05:15 PM


Originally Posted by DeltaboundRedux (Post 3216814)
Perusing the bio's of the Delta Board of Directors members would suggest that the current CEO will probably have plenty of support for recent public decisions. (Ex Coca-Cola, Home Depot, etc.) Ex very senior level US government types as well; there is a cultural zeitgeist that skews heavily in one direction at that level.

I don't pretend to understand Fortune 500 company boardroom politics in the least; however, no one gets to the top of a huge company without being very, very canny about climbing the greasy poll for decades. Don't sell the guy short.

I will say that our board appears to be extremely China friendly. That was a bit of a surprise.

This company's future is tied to the good fortunes and decisions of our CEO. For all our sakes, I wish him well.

this is by design. The fortune 500 is following a path.

All part of the movement to corpocracy. Enjoy the ride to serfdom.

Ed is not going anywhere until he wants to.

Sad to see a great airline fail. I heard similar stories from my father when he was at Pan Am when the wheels were coming off with them.

All 5 Stages 04-04-2021 06:47 PM


Originally Posted by DeltaboundRedux (Post 3216814)
Perusing the bio's of the Delta Board of Directors members would suggest that the current CEO will probably have plenty of support for recent public decisions. (Ex Coca-Cola, Home Depot, etc.) Ex very senior level US government types as well; there is a cultural zeitgeist that skews heavily in one direction at that level.

I don't pretend to understand Fortune 500 company boardroom politics in the least; however, no one gets to the top of a huge company without being very, very canny about climbing the greasy poll for decades. Don't sell the guy short.

I will say that our board appears to be extremely China friendly. That was a bit of a surprise.

This company's future is tied to the good fortunes and decisions of our CEO. For all our sakes, I wish him well.

Barbarians at the Gate is a fantastic read, although somewhat dated now, detailing the machinations inside of the board room. The CEO/CFO/BoD community seems quite incestuous -- everybody knows everybody, and they all sit on each other's boards.

I'm fairly certain not much has changed since its publication; probably just a bigger club now, including academia, ex-political appointees, and NGOs.

A5S

theUpsideDown 04-05-2021 03:47 AM

AJC
 
“Delta teams have been working through various factors, including staffing, large numbers of employee vaccinations and pilots returning to active status," The Atlanta Journal-Constitution is carrying this, I don't have an actual statement from Delta, so this is probably just emails over the weekend from Delta's PR to the AJC.

I got one prediction right, "pilots returning to active status". I should have guessed at the vaccines being pointed to. I assume the: “We apologize to our customers for the inconvenience, and the majority have been rebooked for the same travel day,” is saying 'hey this isn't as big as the last holiday screwup, we got same day service at least'.

A couple other groups have picked up the AJC, since there is no press release then media had no desire to publish a full statement. They just took whatever the AJC said, which is that access jounalism angle, and ran with it meaning Delta execs will dodge a bullet. The only way this is a bigger deal is if Republicans push some sort of "taxpayers paid for pilots and the company pocketed the money" and the narrative takes hold.

Maybe we get this sorted out soon and don't go for #4 screwup in a row.

opt0712 04-05-2021 04:50 AM

They should just tell the truth: They messed up and let their employees sit at home too long on the taxpayer's dime, and got caught flat footed.

TED74 04-05-2021 09:12 AM


Originally Posted by opt0712 (Post 3216953)
They should just tell the truth: They messed up and let their employees sit at home too long on the taxpayer's dime, and got caught flat footed.

That’s an incomplete truth. Many people who who have much preferred to work were FORCED to stay home and became non-current and unavailable when needed. Let the full blame of the errors lie where they belong.

Scoop 04-05-2021 09:44 AM


Originally Posted by DeltaboundRedux (Post 3216814)
Perusing the bio's of the Delta Board of Directors members would suggest that the current CEO will probably have plenty of support for recent public decisions. (Ex Coca-Cola, Home Depot, etc.) Ex very senior level US government types as well; there is a cultural zeitgeist that skews heavily in one direction at that level.

I don't pretend to understand Fortune 500 company boardroom politics in the least; however, no one gets to the top of a huge company without being very, very canny about climbing the greasy poll for decades. Don't sell the guy short.

I will say that our board appears to be extremely China friendly. That was a bit of a surprise.

This company's future is tied to the good fortunes and decisions of our CEO. For all our sakes, I wish him well.


But China is so much more progressive than Georgia - so it makes sense. Or are you saying they are being hypocritical and jump on certain causes claiming virtue and ignore and bend over backward to accommodate other causes totally lacking in virtue?

So are they hypocritical or are they just cowardly? :confused:

Things that make you go Hmmm.

Scoop

MOTOJOE 04-05-2021 09:46 AM

Pull triple 7’s out. ask your recently retired guys to come back for triple dip for remaining years left to help on pilot shortfall. Just kidding or am I. Hahaha. Hope everyone is doing well!

Gunfighter 04-05-2021 02:33 PM


Originally Posted by TED74 (Post 3217128)
That’s an incomplete truth. Many people who who have much preferred to work were FORCED to stay home and became non-current and unavailable when needed. Let the full blame of the errors lie where they belong.

They didn't use my 14 days of availability given 21 days ahead of recency expiration. I'm NQ on reserve while junior pilots are getting GS, OOBGS and IA.

Can I put in a GS for a RECY sim? :D

DeltaboundRedux 04-05-2021 02:55 PM


Originally Posted by Scoop (Post 3217143)
But China is so much more progressive than Georgia - so it makes sense. Or are you saying they are being hypocritical and jump on certain causes claiming virtue and ignore and bend over backward to accommodate other causes totally lacking in virtue?

So are they hypocritical or are they just cowardly? :confused:

Things that make you go Hmmm.

Scoop

Heh.

You know, the easy bash on China is their treatment of the Uyghurs ("alleged" incarceration, rape, organ harvesting, religious persecution, etc. Sucks to be a Uyghur: sometimes you just gotta admit your side lost, I guess.)

The better bash when it come to hypocrisy:

China built an insane amount of coal plants in 2020 alone; more than all the current capacity of Western Europe combined. Said another way, China built more coal fired electrical plants in 2020 than the entire rest of the world.

Not sure how you square Delta's commitment to reducing carbon emissions while simultaneously doing everything it can to make nice with China who clearly doesn't GAF about anything green.

Almost...cynical, one might think.

Planetrain 04-05-2021 03:35 PM


Originally Posted by Gunfighter (Post 3217294)
They didn't use my 14 days of availability given 21 days ahead of recency expiration. I'm NQ on reserve while junior pilots are getting GS, OOBGS and IA.

Can I put in a GS for a RECY sim? :D

Enjoy your time off, recharge your batteries. GS will be here for awhile. Welcome to the club.

Go do your QCQ and you’ll feel better.

DeltaboundRedux 04-05-2021 04:56 PM

One wonders if big-D is going to continue to try and get MLB team charters into GA?

Something like, what 50? 75? 80+ MLB scheduled for GA? (Who watches MLB underage 70 anyway?)

Problematic. Very, very problematic.

TurbineBlade 04-05-2021 05:08 PM

Too bad our union doesn’t have the gumption to draft a Vote of No Confidence to the BOD in reference to our woke CEO’s lack of business sense. Unfortunately, our union also panders. Case in point, the recent poll about diversity and inclusiveness rather than working for ALL pilots regardless of race, sex, ethnicity, etc.

I’d be behind that vote 100%. While it is symbolic, it’s a start.

Bastion needs to stop with the political campaigning and get down to the business of running what, very recently, once was the most efficient and successful airline in history. How far Delta has fallen in just a year. The pandering and virtue signaling may be our demise.

theUpsideDown 04-05-2021 05:53 PM


Originally Posted by TurbineBlade (Post 3217374)
Too bad our union doesn’t have the gumption to draft a Vote of No Confidence to the BOD in reference to our woke CEO’s lack of business sense. Unfortunately, our union also panders. Case in point, the recent poll about diversity and inclusiveness rather than working for ALL pilots regardless of race, sex, ethnicity, etc.

I’d be behind that vote 100%. While it is symbolic, it’s a start.

Bastion needs to stop with the political campaigning and get down to the business of running what, very recently, once was the most efficient and successful airline in history. How far Delta has fallen in just a year. The pandering and virtue signaling may be our demise.

you actually don't win s lot of points doing that. The woke garbage saved us from a boycott, and the board recommended the maneuver. The union isnt as dumb as you pretend.

TurbineBlade 04-06-2021 12:42 AM


Originally Posted by theUpsideDown (Post 3217401)
you actually don't win s lot of points doing that. The woke garbage saved us from a boycott, and the board recommended the maneuver. The union isnt as dumb as you pretend.

And yet, people are boycotting Delta.

ReJones 04-06-2021 02:31 AM


Originally Posted by TurbineBlade (Post 3217501)
And yet, people are boycotting Delta.

And here you have the other side of the coin. Sane people are sick of the woke garbage and thoughtcrime policing.

sailingfun 04-06-2021 04:44 AM


Originally Posted by TurbineBlade (Post 3217501)
And yet, people are boycotting Delta.

A few organizations are calling for a boycott of Delta. Actual bookings are going up at a rapid rate. So much do that for the first time in a year capacity is a real issue. The boycott seems to be failing.

notEnuf 04-06-2021 05:01 AM


Originally Posted by TurbineBlade (Post 3217501)
And yet, people are boycotting Delta.

Isn't the NRA still boycotting Delta?

Buck Rogers 04-06-2021 09:05 AM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 3217525)
A few organizations are calling for a boycott of Delta. Actual bookings are going up at a rapid rate. So much do that for the first time in a year capacity is a real issue. The boycott seems to be failing.

Dude. You have a serious critical thinking deficit disorder if this is the best logic you can come up with! It is a possibility.....but would prolly be about number 10 or lower on the list of possibilities of why " for the first time in a year, capacity is a real issue"

This places you in the company shill camp. See if you can offer up some better ammunition as to why we have a capacity problem.

sailingfun 04-06-2021 09:13 AM


Originally Posted by Buck Rogers (Post 3217659)
Dude. You have a serious critical thinking deficit disorder if this is the best logic you can come up with! It is a possibility.....but would prolly be about number 10 or lower on the list of possibilities of why " for the first time in a year, capacity is a real issue"

This places you in the company shill camp. See if you can offer up some better ammunition as to why we have a capacity problem.

We have a capacity problem because bookings are increasing at a greater rate than anyone predicted. With dropping the middle seat rule that capacity issue has probably gone away.

Buck Rogers 04-06-2021 09:30 AM

OMG!!!

Seems to be too dificult of a homework assignment for you.

Let me see if Dad can help....

So increased bookings causing capacity problems = therefor the the boycott seems to be failing?

Could the capacity problems be due to :

CDC saying its safe to travel
Spring break
Almost 40 million Americans vaxxed
Plummeting deaths and hospitalizations due to Covid
Covid doing so well No questions asked about it at the 1 and only press presidential press briefing
People sick of lock downs....Covid fatigue
Long weekend
Delta botched UNA status
Delta misjudged the recovery
Mismanagement of currencies
.....and prolly the biggest....The media isn't 24/7 in your face about how we are all gonna die and it's "Cheetos fault"

These are all possibilities for why we have a capacity problem.....demand is up and should continue up compared to last year. So, for you to take to position that the "boycott seems to be failing" (whether true of not) has virtually very little to do with the capacity problem. You have taken 2 disparate "factoids" and derived a possibly correct answer...but your answer (even if true) has almost nothing to do with the capacity problem.

FangsF15 04-06-2021 10:31 AM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 3217664)
We have a capacity problem because bookings are increasing at a greater rate than anyone predicted. With dropping the middle seat rule that capacity issue has probably gone away.

For the moment...

TurbineBlade 04-06-2021 10:33 AM


Originally Posted by theUpsideDown (Post 3217401)
you actually don't win s lot of points doing that. The woke garbage saved us from a boycott, and the board recommended the maneuver. The union isnt as dumb as you pretend.

Points?? What points do we need? The company decided, from the very beginning of negotiations before COVID that they didn’t even want to negotiate! They pushed this MOAD before VEOP and didn’t even consider SILS. The meltdowns over the last few holidays are solely on management and their desire to beat the pilots into submission and have us grovel for our jobs by giving up everything we’ve worked for over the years.

The woke garbage didn’t “save” us from a boycott. If you think that then you are delusional. Additionally, if someone out of the blue decided to extort you personally unless you do their bidding, would you?

This is about what’s right, not bowing down to extortionist, Marxist bullies based on a complete lie concerning a voting law that absolutely IS NOT suppressing voting rights of any person, whatsoever.

If Bastion really believes in punishing GOP politicians then he can pull up stakes at one of the best placed and advantageous hubs and move operations to Evansville, IN (no offense to the fine folk in Evansville.) That’ll teach ‘em - hurt the very people who support our business - again, based on a lie of what this law has accomplished. MLB in all their wokeness is hurting the very people they claim they want to protect, all because of a lie.

I don’t believe in boycotts from any side. I also don’t believe that a corporation should be publicly involved in politics. Stay neutral.

sailingfun 04-06-2021 11:08 AM


Originally Posted by Buck Rogers (Post 3217671)
OMG!!!

Seems to be too dificult of a homework assignment for you.

Let me see if Dad can help....

So increased bookings causing capacity problems = therefor the the boycott seems to be failing?

Could the capacity problems be due to :

CDC saying its safe to travel
Spring break
Almost 40 million Americans vaxxed
Plummeting deaths and hospitalizations due to Covid
Covid doing so well No questions asked about it at the 1 and only press presidential press briefing
People sick of lock downs....Covid fatigue
Long weekend
Delta botched UNA status
Delta misjudged the recovery
Mismanagement of currencies
.....and prolly the biggest....The media isn't 24/7 in your face about how we are all gonna die and it's "Cheetos fault"

These are all possibilities for why we have a capacity problem.....demand is up and should continue up compared to last year. So, for you to take to position that the "boycott seems to be failing" (whether true of not) has virtually very little to do with the capacity problem. You have taken 2 disparate "factoids" and derived a possibly correct answer...but your answer (even if true) has almost nothing to do with the capacity problem.

So you are saying the boycott is killing our bookings or not working? You seem to be making my point! I will stick with the boycott is not working and in fact is having zero impact on our bookings relative to other airlines. Everyone knows the things you mention, however bookings are coming back even faster than expectations given those issues.

Speed Select 04-06-2021 11:28 AM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 3217748)
So you are saying the boycott is killing our bookings or not working? You seem to be making my point! I will stick with the boycott is not working and in fact is having zero impact on our bookings relative to other airlines. Everyone knows the things you mention, however bookings are coming back even faster than expectations given those issues.

I’d be surprised if the middle seat is a factor anymore. Every airline is maxed to capacity and fares are high, even on the LCCs.

99% of the public has no clue on the “boycott” or the Georgia voting law controversy.

JamesBond 04-06-2021 01:15 PM


Originally Posted by TurbineBlade (Post 3217501)
And yet, people are boycotting Delta.

Some will... some won't. Ticket prices will put butts in seats.

TurbineBlade 04-06-2021 02:30 PM


Originally Posted by JamesBond (Post 3217821)
Some will... some won't. Ticket prices will put butts in seats.

Understood, but that’s not the point. A company should never alienate any of their current or future customers, regardless of political affiliation.

Again, publicly held companies should stay neutral and provide the same level of service to all. Ed Bastion is violating Delta’s own social media policies. That hypocrisy irritates the hell out of me. “Do as I say, not as I do” mentality coming right from the top.

beernutt 04-06-2021 02:46 PM

Bastian. The CEO of Delta Air Lines is Edward Bastian. A bastion is something else. If he’s going to live rent-free in your head you may want to make sure his name is spelled correctly on the lease.

TurbineBlade 04-06-2021 02:59 PM


Originally Posted by beernutt (Post 3217877)
Bastian. The CEO of Delta Air Lines is Edward Bastian. A bastion is something else. If he’s going to live rent-free in your head you may want to make sure his name is spelled correctly on the lease.

That’s all you got? The spelling of his name doesn’t matter. His actions do. Seems you idolize this guy. Do you know his middle name, his hobbies? Don’t be so obvious in your admiration of the man.

Cookenbauer 04-06-2021 03:15 PM

Im no fan of Bastian as he clearly makes it known he's not exactly a pilot cheerleader. But way too many people get emotionally caught up in the idea that people threatening to boycott delta is meaningful on any level. Here's a hint...it's not. It's the exact same thing when some random person declares angrily to the entire store that he will never shop at ______ again and has spent thousands of dollars there. No one cares. It doesn't move the needle one iota. Boycott chik Fila. Boycott Goya. Coca cola. Blah blah. 99 percent of people don't care. It anything, it's ironically further advertisement.

Just because we get emotionally invested and follow delta news doesn't mean random Joe does. Big data tells the tale.

GucciBoy 04-06-2021 03:42 PM


Originally Posted by beernutt (Post 3217877)
Bastian. The CEO of Delta Air Lines is Edward Bastian. A bastion is something else. If he’s going to live rent-free in your head you may want to make sure his name is spelled correctly on the lease.




Originally Posted by TurbineBlade (Post 3217884)
That’s all you got? The spelling of his name doesn’t matter. His actions do. Seems you idolize this guy. Do you know his middle name, his hobbies? Don’t be so obvious in your admiration of the man.



Everyone here is so spring-loaded. Take a breath.

“You want me to spell his name correctly? YoU mUsT lOvE hIm!!!”

GivemeVSP 04-06-2021 03:49 PM


Originally Posted by GucciBoy (Post 3217904)
Everyone here is so spring-loaded. Take a breath.

“You want me to spell his name correctly? YoU mUsT lOvE hIm!!!”

Just the wrath of the 4th floor tools...

Trip7 04-06-2021 03:51 PM


Originally Posted by Cookenbauer (Post 3217894)
Im no fan of Bastian as he clearly makes it known he's not exactly a pilot cheerleader. But way too many people get emotionally caught up in the idea that people threatening to boycott delta is meaningful on any level. Here's a hint...it's not. It's the exact same thing when some random person declares angrily to the entire store that he will never shop at ______ again and has spent thousands of dollars there. No one cares. It doesn't move the needle one iota. Boycott chik Fila. Boycott Goya. Coca cola. Blah blah. 99 percent of people don't care. It anything, it's ironically further advertisement.



Just because we get emotionally invested and follow delta news doesn't mean random Joe does. Big data tells the tale.

Spot on. People quickly forget this isn't the first go around. There were Boycott Delta calls when we dropped the NRA discount. Folks have short term memories and have already forgotten all the crazy stuff that has happened this year. Remember the Texas power outtage? They talked about that nonstop for a week now its a distant memory. Something new will happen next week and everyone will forget about the Georgia voting law

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GogglesPisano 04-06-2021 03:53 PM


Originally Posted by Trip7 (Post 3217912)
Spot on. People quickly forget this isn't the first go around. There were Boycott Delta calls when we dropped the NRA discount. Folks have short term memories and have already forgotten all the crazy stuff that has happened this year. Remember the Texas power outtage? They talked about that nonstop for a week now its a distant memory. Something new will happen next week and everyone will forget about the Georgia voting law

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So why say anything?

FL370esq 04-06-2021 04:17 PM


Originally Posted by GogglesPisano (Post 3217914)
So why say anything?

Because it takes the focus off yet another holiday failure? Fortunately we have 7+ weeks till Memorial Day weekend. I am sure CR will have us all up and ready to meet that demand. 🤔


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