notEnuf

Funny how I've never seen a ramp break room that has a sign. "Through these doors walk the bag slingers of legend, of the airline business, not to be confused with a federal department like the post office, which may do a similar job or activity, no offense."

Hotel Kilo

I disagree with most of your post here.

For example, what has the market been "weighing" since 2003?

Its an inflated value based on ether as it stands save few stalwarts.

We all know that. So best to learn to play the game by their rules.

I started investing in 1986. Thru the late 80's I started accumulating some unknowns at the time. Apple, VAX, Microsoft, Netscape, Oracle, SUN, etc. I also held IBM, Exxon, Shell, and Berkshire A.

Over the years, and dollar cost averaging I've amassed quite a portfolio. I started early in my life, I invested heavily in technology and move things around a bit, but always held them even through the tech crash of 1999-2000.

WB wins in that he plays the same game. Find the next Apple, mircosoft etc. I found the originals and staid put. WB is always moving forward.

He knows how to play the game. Of course it helps to be on the inside too.

Your average investor is generally throwing darts with a blindfold on.

I do truly believe the markets are "rigged" to some extent. They have game theory and brilliant mathematicians working on ways to figure out how it performs - but the herd is fickle.

The formula basis is what you can take risk wise. From there you need to do significant research.

I'm not a day trader, and never will be. I'm in to it long term. I bought what I thought at the time were solid companies that I felt were going to be revolutionary. I think I got it right for the most part.

Now its slightly more difficult as I am older and my needs are changing. I've accumulated my wealth, now I am in preservation mode.

mispoken

Very cool, HK! You’ve mastered long term investing, which is something few can do. Most people just can not stomach the draw downs, I’m sure you saw some very barftastic drawdowns and were able to stay in the game. This is usually where people swear off the “rigged slot machine”.

I follow some folks for entertainment that study and constantly quote the investing disciples like WB and PL. Interestingly enough, when a stock goes up 15% they sell due to “valuation concerns” and “reallocate” or when the PF goes down 20% they liquidate citing the FUD of the day.

It’s all a very interesting way to watch human psychology and emotions play out. Money really amplifies it all.

Re; the market being rigged, I think that the brilliant minds you speak of find inefficiencies, exploit them and then their edge is gone. Very few of these edges exist anymore, but when they are discovered everyone figures it out and thus the edge is lost. People like you and I don’t participate in those games, but I don’t know if that makes it rigged. I’d say rigging would have been your SVB. An inefficiency would be something like GME. It was a beautifully exploited inefficiency but I feel pretty confident something like that won’t happen again. But, I know nothing more observations than anything

bozo99

Words to live by.

Thank you for sharing this.

mispoken

If you’re interested in a counter point to this (from someone who doesn’t live and die by viewership and the sale of FUD and someone who actually knows what they’re talking about) check this out;

https://youtu.be/WtsvouVQu90

I don’t doubt the DESIRE for these nations to have an alternate reserve currency, it’s just that nobody on this planet has the ability like the US.

I just don’t think the sky is falling quiet yet.

DeltaboundRedux

I don't know anything about currency trading.

After 20 years online though, I know a whole lot about doom-porn.

The whole "US dollar reserve currency is going to lose it's international shine" strikes me as a whole heap of "doom porn".

When MIT grads graduate and start going to China for the yuan, Mexico for the peso, or Russia for the rubble, then I'll get worried.

mispoken

I agree. And I do want to clarify this doom porn you speak of comes at us from all sides. It’s not just Tucker. It’s about clicks, eyeballs and ad dollars.

I wouldn’t say there’s NO motive for Ilya, as he was brought on by TastyLive to gain eyeballs and have more people open trading accounts with them. But, that being said, this guy actually knows the plumbing of how currency works.

The USD doom and gloom pops up every now and again, but this is a great summary IMO.

Bottlen0se

Tucker had some of my own family members convinced we were going to run out of diesel fuel back in November. So yea, he pushes doom.

SonicFlyer

I don't either, but we are taking steps in that direction with China and Russia and Brasil teaming up and the FedNow coming into place and a likely CBDC on the horizon combined with unsustainable debt and no end in sight for the spending.

Trip7

What has the market been weighing? I'm not sure. I'm not good at predicting macro as that's incredibly difficult. What I can predict, with reasonable accuracy (around 7/10) is an individual company trading at absurdly low valuations relative to it's cashflows ans/or assets. That has been weighing well since the beginning of money