Trip7

Since the last thread got hijacked by political commentary and subsequently locked, with the end of 3Q today it's a good time to get back on topic. It's a bloody market out there. Bitcoin and High Growth/Profit-less have been taken out back and shot. Now there are signs the Generals (AAPL, TSLA, etc) are also being rounded up for execution. Inflation is roaring with seemingly no end in sight. Europe is experiencing very very high energy costs and US, for the time being, have been shielded from it. While the price of Oil has dropped significantly, the SPR has been drawn down significantly and shortly will have to stop withdrawals and even start replenishing. Meanwhile, the OPEC Chair and Oil & Gas executives have echoed similar statements, that he financial oil markets are completely disconnected from the physical oil markets which have seen supply constraints. Time will tell.


mispoken and I have a friendly long-term competition going on and here's my 3Q update:

401k: +1.06% YTD
Brokerage: -4.74% YTD

Largest Holdings:
BTU (Coal)
EGY(Oil Producer)
CRK(Natural Gas)
PUMP(Oil Field Services)
GTX(Turbocharger Manufacturer)
BABA(China Tech)
Tencent(China Tech)

chrisreedrules

Just a couple observations…

You can’t stop inflation without raising the interest rates to a level that is higher than the inflation itself. They know this, and I don’t think their goal is to actually stop inflation at all. I don’t think they can stop it by raising interest rates because of our national debt among other pain-inducing issues.

Raising the interest rates will in fact bring down the price of homes that we saw soar during Covid. But it will not make them more affordable. They will actually be less affordable, even factoring in a 20-30% real estate market correction. So this will ultimately amount to more destruction of middle class wealth.

There is a reason the markets are teetering. Things aren’t good and they appear to be set to only get worse.

gloopy

Yeah, all the way back to it's December, 2020 price point. Oh the humanity. There's a lot of air left in many, many bubbles right now though. Its hilarious to see people talk about the "Strong Dollar!" when its collapsing against everything it's used to purchase, just because its collapsing a little less rapidly than the others.

But your broader point of concern is very valid. We're in for a world of hurt and everything big gov (nationally and internationally) is doing about it now is going to make the inevitable worse.

And then big gov will once again be called on to "do something!" at any cost. Our fat 401's and Roths are sitting ducks; we are the new Kulaks. The broader war on property and businesses is still in its infancy compared to what's to come. Let alone inheritance. And the worse it gets, the more 51% will beg for more in the false "democracy" we've been conditioned to believe we have.

But we have to get true inflation wage adjustments. Even if we do get that every year in perpetuity, we still fall behind, as we only get "trued up" once a year so we still lose out the other 364 days.

Trip7

Tax Secrets of Health Savings Accounts https://www.wsj.com/articles/hsa-tax...ts-11664493292

Excellent article on how to leverage the tax benefits of an HSA thru investing

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

tennisguru

Your link is behind a pay wall.

DumboDrop

Cliffs notes...Get an HSA and max it out. Invest it once funds reach the minimum to do so. Profit.

JulesWinfield

Pretty much. Ray Dalio’s book nails it. https://www.amazon.com/Changing-Worl...e-2c7203985a55

NuGuy

Revolution in China. Internal turmoil takes them off the world stage for at least a decade.

Ukraine recaptures all of their territory, joins NATO & EU. Massive rebuilding effort, on par with the Marshal Plan initiated.

Loss of Chinese supply chain causes severe shortages of basic consumer products & critical medical items such as saline. This hastens repatriation of manufacturing to the US/Canada/Mexico.

Severe labor shortage in the US, Canada and Mexico exacerbates supply chain issues. Repatriation of manufacturing has absorbed the entire remaining labor force.

Massive oil fields, with reserves greater than Venezuela, found underneath Ohio/Pennsylvania. Oil prices retreat 25% on the news.

Coup in Russia, followed by demographic collapse. The Russian Far East secedes.

Healthy market in "re-purposed" consumer goods arises due to supply chain issues. Joesph O.Donewt, becomes first "recycling billionaire" with his company "Broken Couch", which provides mass refurbishment & distribution of "previously owned" appliances and consumer goods.

Lockheed Martin revolutionizes the energy market when they introduce compact fusion power. Oil & related commodity markets enter a free fall, stabilizing just above cost of production.

Revolution in Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE and other producing states as oil revenue vanishes.

Famine in Russia, Cuba and other former nations in the Russian orbit. US/NATO/EU intervenes to provide humanitarian aid.

marcal

You forgot civil war in the US bc of extreme right and left wing politics.

Despite all these issues, history shows that equity markets will still rise over the long term.

Hawaii50

Dude, that was amazing. Where did it come from?