5 year Market Outlook/Opinions Part Deux
10-01-2022, 04:15 PM
#21
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Originally Posted by DeltaboundRedux
“ The empire, long divided, must unite; long united, must divide. Thus it has ever been”
(Tricky to bet on the timing though. That famous Chinese quote is at the very least a nod to the eternal nature of China. Pretty bullish on China for the rest of my lifetime myself)
(Tricky to bet on the timing though. That famous Chinese quote is at the very least a nod to the eternal nature of China. Pretty bullish on China for the rest of my lifetime myself)
- By 2030, the retired population will outnumber the working population. (20% in US)
- The population peak occurred ten years ago.
- By 2050, the population of China will be in the ballpark of 650 million. (US is on track for 450 million)
- Of child bearing age Chinese, ⅔ are women.
10-01-2022, 04:57 PM
#22
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Originally Posted by NotMrNiceGuy
Heard some interesting population demographic stats for China the other day.
- By 2030, the retired population will outnumber the working population. (20% in US)
- The population peak occurred ten years ago.
- By 2050, the population of China will be in the ballpark of 650 million. (US is on track for 450 million)
- Of child bearing age Chinese, ⅔ are women.
10-01-2022, 05:47 PM
#23
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Position: Enoch Powell Enthusiast
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China is fun to discuss. Lots of challenges to overcome. The “middle income trap”, for one.
Biggest problem though that’s thread related; it’s difficult to invest in for a plethora of reasons.
Biggest problem though that’s thread related; it’s difficult to invest in for a plethora of reasons.
10-01-2022, 05:50 PM
#24
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Originally Posted by Trip7
Highlights
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HSAs are certainly a good choice, if you’re eligible…
a significant percentage of us are not, ie retired military with TRICARE.
The IRS prohibits it. It must be too good of a deal.
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10-01-2022, 05:54 PM
#25
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Posts: 413
Originally Posted by chrisreedrules
Just a couple observations…
You can’t stop inflation without raising the interest rates to a level that is higher than the inflation itself. They know this, and I don’t think their goal is to actually stop inflation at all. I don’t think they can stop it by raising interest rates because of our national debt among other pain-inducing issues.
Raising the interest rates will in fact bring down the price of homes that we saw soar during Covid. But it will not make them more affordable. They will actually be less affordable, even factoring in a 20-30% real estate market correction. So this will ultimately amount to more destruction of middle class wealth.
There is a reason the markets are teetering. Things aren’t good and they appear to be set to only get worse.
You can’t stop inflation without raising the interest rates to a level that is higher than the inflation itself. They know this, and I don’t think their goal is to actually stop inflation at all. I don’t think they can stop it by raising interest rates because of our national debt among other pain-inducing issues.
Raising the interest rates will in fact bring down the price of homes that we saw soar during Covid. But it will not make them more affordable. They will actually be less affordable, even factoring in a 20-30% real estate market correction. So this will ultimately amount to more destruction of middle class wealth.
There is a reason the markets are teetering. Things aren’t good and they appear to be set to only get worse.
10-01-2022, 05:59 PM
#26
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Joined APC: Mar 2015
Position: stake holder ir.delta.com
Posts: 10,027
Originally Posted by Nordhavn
This is an accurate assessment of wat is going on currently. How many of us think that current conditions could easily tumble into depression? I do!
10-01-2022, 07:36 PM
#28
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Originally Posted by NuGuy
You guys do know that 6-7% interest is closer to normal than 2%, right? Some how the housing market survived.
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10-01-2022, 08:10 PM
#29
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Originally Posted by NuGuy
You guys do know that 6-7% interest is closer to normal than 2%, right? Some how the housing market survived.
Love the thread btw
10-02-2022, 03:51 AM
#30
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Posts: 5,549
Originally Posted by NuGuy
You guys do know that 6-7% interest is closer to normal than 2%, right? Some how the housing market survived.
Agreed! According to Freddie Mac, the historical average mortgage rate since 1971 is 7.76% on a 30 yr fixed. In 1981, there was a spike of 18.63%...crazy! Of course, lots of Americans didn't build the McMansions they're building right now! As mentored above, valuations will likely have to drop a bit if people want to unload their property. Also, people might build the 2,000 sq ft house vs the 3,600 sq ft house. Quite a few of my friends locked in a 2.25% interest rates late last year. With the current rates, their buying power has almost been cut in half.
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