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5 year Market Outlook/Opinions Part Deux

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Old 10-01-2022, 11:56 AM
  #11  
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Originally Posted by NuGuy View Post
Revolution in China. Internal turmoil takes them off the world stage for at least a decade.

Ukraine recaptures all of their territory, joins NATO & EU. Massive rebuilding effort, on par with the Marshal Plan initiated.

Loss of Chinese supply chain causes severe shortages of basic consumer products & critical medical items such as saline. This hastens repatriation of manufacturing to the US/Canada/Mexico.

Severe labor shortage in the US, Canada and Mexico exacerbates supply chain issues. Repatriation of manufacturing has absorbed the entire remaining labor force.

Massive oil fields, with reserves greater than Venezuela, found underneath Ohio/Pennsylvania. Oil prices retreat 25% on the news.

Coup in Russia, followed by demographic collapse. The Russian Far East secedes.

Healthy market in "re-purposed" consumer goods arises due to supply chain issues. Joesph O.Donewt, becomes first "recycling billionaire" with his company "Broken Couch", which provides mass refurbishment & distribution of "previously owned" appliances and consumer goods.

Lockheed Martin revolutionizes the energy market when they introduce compact fusion power. Oil & related commodity markets enter a free fall, stabilizing just above cost of production.

Revolution in Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE and other producing states as oil revenue vanishes.

Famine in Russia, Cuba and other former nations in the Russian orbit. US/NATO/EU intervenes to provide humanitarian aid.
The crazy thing is I think chunks of these things legitimately happen. The crazier is that it’s all more likely than the debbie downer brigade that started chiming in about the imminent collapse of the US and thus world economy that would destroy known life and set the stage for a Hollywood dystopian future.
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Old 10-01-2022, 12:00 PM
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Originally Posted by DumboDrop View Post
Cliffs notes...Get an HSA and max it out. Invest it once funds reach the minimum to do so. Profit.
Protip: Fidelity HSA has no minimum to invest

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Old 10-01-2022, 12:06 PM
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Originally Posted by NuGuy View Post
Revolution in China. Internal turmoil takes them off the world stage for at least a decade.

Ukraine recaptures all of their territory, joins NATO & EU. Massive rebuilding effort, on par with the Marshal Plan initiated.

Loss of Chinese supply chain causes severe shortages of basic consumer products & critical medical items such as saline. This hastens repatriation of manufacturing to the US/Canada/Mexico.

Severe labor shortage in the US, Canada and Mexico exacerbates supply chain issues. Repatriation of manufacturing has absorbed the entire remaining labor force.

Massive oil fields, with reserves greater than Venezuela, found underneath Ohio/Pennsylvania. Oil prices retreat 25% on the news.

Coup in Russia, followed by demographic collapse. The Russian Far East secedes.

Healthy market in "re-purposed" consumer goods arises due to supply chain issues. Joesph O.Donewt, becomes first "recycling billionaire" with his company "Broken Couch", which provides mass refurbishment & distribution of "previously owned" appliances and consumer goods.

Lockheed Martin revolutionizes the energy market when they introduce compact fusion power. Oil & related commodity markets enter a free fall, stabilizing just above cost of production.

Revolution in Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE and other producing states as oil revenue vanishes.

Famine in Russia, Cuba and other former nations in the Russian orbit. US/NATO/EU intervenes to provide humanitarian aid.
Protip: The world's ecomony is dependent on energy. He who has the Gold makes the rules. Guess who has the gold(energy)? Russia. Ukraine and the rest of Europe will freeze before Ukraine recaptures all their territory. Once Winter comes and Russia shuts off the gas, there will be political unrest as the European people won't put up with high inflation and freezing their tail off to save Ukraine.

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Old 10-01-2022, 12:10 PM
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Originally Posted by tennisguru View Post
Your link is behind a pay wall.
Highlights

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Old 10-01-2022, 12:38 PM
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Originally Posted by marcal View Post
You forgot civil war in the US bc of extreme right and left wing politics.
Won't happen. Full employment leads to a chicken in every pot, a car in every garage and people will zone out to DGAF mode. With the reduction of external threats and the stabilization of the energy situation, the political extremes get tempered because "life is good". There have always been fringe on both sides, but in good times, they're left to fume & fuss in the comfort of their own home. Fusion takes the winds out of the rabid environmentalist movement. You have to cut down some trees to move up the tech tree ladder, and once that's done, the old arguments fade away. Those attached to those movements don't like that, because the money is in the treatment, not the cure.

With fusion comes cheap fresh water generation. You can apply a lot of power to power intensive solutions like reverse osmosis or plain ole' flash distillation. Or maybe something cute comes down the pike like superconductive magnetic separation (pull the salt ions right out of the water).

Originally Posted by Hawaii50 View Post
Dude, that was amazing. Where did it come from?
I figured this was a thread for random speculation, so I randomly speculated. Just a collection of bits and pieces I picked up on the internet.

I would not want to be in the energy market when there is a technological turn. So much of the price is supported only by commodity speculation. Remove that, and it's a LONG way down. There will always be a need for base petroleum, like oils and lubricant as well as base stock for plastic synthesis, but remove the energy portion, and yea, they almost have to pay you to truck it away.
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Old 10-01-2022, 12:40 PM
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Why is China going to revolt?
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Old 10-01-2022, 12:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Lifeson2112 View Post
Why is China going to revolt?

The cracks in the single-party system are growing into fissures.

China’s revolt will be a slow and drawn out process, but there is no way Xi’s system of governance is sustainable.
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Old 10-01-2022, 03:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Lifeson2112 View Post
Why is China going to revolt?
“ The empire, long divided, must unite; long united, must divide. Thus it has ever been”


(Tricky to bet on the timing though. That famous Chinese quote is at the very least a nod to the eternal nature of China. Pretty bullish on China for the rest of my lifetime myself)
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Old 10-01-2022, 03:46 PM
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What about Putin deciding to nuke Ukraine? Seems like he’s setting the stage for this to happen and we’re all walking blindly into a very real chance of this escalating into WW3. I am having a hard time believing he’s bluffing, but then again, that’s what he could want.
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Old 10-01-2022, 03:58 PM
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Low key turned high key banking/loan crisis in China. You can tell its bad because there was a slow trickle of dire news that created protests, and that ended with tanks in the streets. Now you dont here anything.

You can only push that button so many times.
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