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Old 04-16-2023, 07:43 AM
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Originally Posted by chrisreedrules View Post
I don’t think it even matters at this point. Age 67 in and of itself won’t slow the pilot shortage train much, if at all. It left the station several years ago, built up a tremendous amount of speed during Covid, and is about to run off the tracks.
That's true. But it's an opportunity for politicians to appear to do DO something, ANYTHING about the problem.

Yes despite what alpa says there's a problem in rural states and smaller communities and it matters politically to those reps and senators.

Also while age 67 won't change much at the legacies, I believe that many regional, ACMI, and third tier pilots would like to work longer if allowed. They are not typically as well positioned as legacy CA's for retirement, nor do they tend to have generous LTD.
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Old 04-16-2023, 07:50 AM
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“A growing pilot shortage and an even more acute shortage of airline captains—a byproduct of letting the pilot shortage worsen over time—has devastated small community air service across the United States. Already, 324 airports have lost an average of one-third of their air service and 53 airports have lost more than half of their air service. Fourteen airports have lost all flights.”

More service reductions each and every month.


The regionals are in a free fall and it’s going to get a lot worse.
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Old 04-16-2023, 07:53 AM
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Originally Posted by gzsg View Post
“A growing pilot shortage and an even more acute shortage of airline captains—a byproduct of letting the pilot shortage worsen over time—has devastated small community air service across the United States. Already, 324 airports have lost an average of one-third of their air service and 53 airports have lost more than half of their air service. Fourteen airports have lost all flights.”

More service reductions each and every month.


The regionals are in a free fall and it’s going to get a lot worse.
Good. They've been a cancer on this profession since they went from 15% of pax carried in the 80s to 50% prior to Covid. The only people to blame are the corporate greed in the race to the bottom which effectively destroyed the training pipeline in the 2000s. And are trying to destroy it again in the name of short term benefit..
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Old 04-16-2023, 08:39 AM
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Originally Posted by PilotBases View Post
It wouldn’t stop at 67. They’d do it, say “see there’s still an issue!” Then go for the ATP rule, and visa restrictions. It’s not just one and done, it’s the RAA looking to reverse the pay trend and get a race to the bottom going again. Age 67 is merely the camels nose.
Couldn't agree more. The visa restrictions scare me the most. Look to the merchant marine industry as an example of how devastating that can be.

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Old 04-16-2023, 08:42 AM
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Originally Posted by gzsg View Post
More service reductions each and every month.

The regionals are in a free fall and it’s going to get a lot worse.
Agreed. Upping the retirement age 2 years won't ever bring back an era of thousands of 50 seaters flying hourly service to every small town. Those days are gone forever and they can't come back with political edicts from our noble public servants
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Old 04-16-2023, 09:01 AM
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Originally Posted by All 5 Stages View Post
Couldn't agree more. The visa restrictions scare me the most. Look to the merchant marine industry as an example of how devastating that can be.
The labor issue wasn't due to visa availability IIRC, it was due to offshoring.

But the bigger issue wasn't labor, it's offshoring via flag-of-convenience. The fed used to heavily subsidize the merchant marine for national security reasons, but gave that up after WWII.

A US flagged merchant marine is not economically competitive in the global free market... labor costs too high, safety regs too stringent and costly. Right now the US fleet pretty much operates between US ports, since foreign ships can't do that IIRC (cabotage). The fed would need to make up the difference, via tarrifs or subsidies.

Perhaps they should require that 50% of US imports and exports sail on US flagged vessels.
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Old 04-16-2023, 08:52 PM
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Originally Posted by CBreezy View Post
Good. They've been a cancer on this profession since they went from 15% of pax carried in the 80s to 50% prior to Covid. The only people to blame are the corporate greed in the race to the bottom which effectively destroyed the training pipeline in the 2000s. And are trying to destroy it again in the name of short term benefit..
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Agreed. Also, having commercial air service is not a human right.
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Old 04-17-2023, 03:12 AM
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Originally Posted by CBreezy View Post
Good. They've been a cancer on this profession since they went from 15% of pax carried in the 80s to 50% prior to Covid. The only people to blame are the corporate greed in the race to the bottom which effectively destroyed the training pipeline in the 2000s. And are trying to destroy it again in the name of short term benefit..
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I would check your statistics. Regional departures peaked in 2007. They have been on a downward trend since. Average aircraft size has gone up since 07 so passenger numbers have been flat until covid. I don’t think they ever approached 50% of passengers carried. You might have meant departures which is possible.
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Old 04-17-2023, 03:35 AM
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Originally Posted by sailingfun View Post
I would check your statistics. Regional departures peaked in 2007. They have been on a downward trend since. Average aircraft size has gone up since 07 so passenger numbers have been flat until covid. I don’t think they ever approached 50% of passengers carried. You might have meant departures which is possible.
I’m sure he meant departures. I remember that number getting thrown around years ago. So many RJs back then it was crazy. Hope they stay away.
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Old 04-17-2023, 09:09 AM
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Originally Posted by rickair7777 View Post
The fed would need to make up the difference, via tarrifs or subsidies.
Exactly right. Our nation's economic model was always based on tarrifs. Lincoln called it the "American System". Tarrifs built this country by incentivising our industries. We traded it in for a literal pillar of Marxism (a deeply progressive income tax) and as a result our manufacturing base (and shipping industry) were absolutely gutted. Then we pass all these pie in the sky costly labor and environmental laws, then allow the rest of the world to low bid our workers and business subject to those costs as they get to avoid those them. Its itme to "true up" all imported goods and services with the full costs of the regulations they avoid. And Scab of Convenience airlines should be sold planes (with no Ex_Im assistance) and then locked out of our airspace.
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