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APC Oil talk
Originally Posted by OOfff
(Post 3854692)
delta sticks to the hiring projections, until they don’t. 1000 ain’t gonna happen
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Originally Posted by Nantonaku
(Post 3854798)
If your favorite president keeps cutting regulations in his new term and letting the economy roar (as well as drilling for oil) then we could be at 1,500 at the end of the year. The wealth effect is real. There are thousands of newly minted millionaires this month. Elections have consequences.
I am always amused by people who think things will magically change in some huge way. Barring insanely high tariffs or essentially impossible levels of mass deportation to crash the economy, absolutely nothing will change on a scale that quick. The economic impact of most policies is measured on the scale of years to decades. The most likely policy to affect hiring immediately would be age 67. That would probably result in a reduction of 300-400 pilots needed per year for two years. |
Originally Posted by Nantonaku
(Post 3854798)
If your favorite president keeps cutting regulations in his new term and letting the economy roar (as well as drilling for oil) then we could be at 1,500 at the end of the year. The wealth effect is real. There are thousands of newly minted millionaires this month. Elections have consequences.
Anyway where are the new AEs!? |
Originally Posted by Nantonaku
(Post 3854798)
If your favorite president keeps cutting regulations in his new term and letting the economy roar (as well as drilling for oil) then we could be at 1,500 at the end of the year. The wealth effect is real. There are thousands of newly minted millionaires this month. Elections have consequences.
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Originally Posted by Flyler
(Post 3854834)
Drill all you want the refineries in the US are not set up to refine the type of oil we have in abundance here in the US. They’re set up to refine oil from the Middle East, if they refined US oil they’d do so at a loss. That’s why we export all of our oil. But hey, pilots know everything…
Anyway where are the new AEs!? Most shale oil in the United States is refined at large-scale refineries, with a significant concentration along the Gulf Coast, particularly in Texas and Louisiana. These refineries are equipped to handle the unique composition of shale oil and process it into various petroleum products.
Shale oil is refined into various petroleum products, similar to conventional crude oil. However, the primary products obtained from shale oil refining are: Transportation Fuels Gasoline: A significant portion of refined shale oil is converted into gasoline for use in automobiles Diesel fuel: Shale oil is well-suited for producing middle distillates, including diesel fuel. Jet fuel: Another important middle distillate product obtained from shale oil refining |
The US produced the most oil of any country ever in the history of time in 2023…….
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Originally Posted by Hubcapped
(Post 3854850)
The US produced the most oil of any country ever in the history of time in 2023…….
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Originally Posted by DWC CAP10 USAF
(Post 3854856)
Will these refineries be biddable on the next AE?
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Originally Posted by Whoopsmybad
(Post 3854858)
Yes, oil rig helos MSY, but I heard Jan not Dec. my last van driver told me.
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Originally Posted by Trip7
(Post 3854847)
Where did you get that information?
Originally Posted by Hubcapped
(Post 3854850)
The US produced the most oil of any country ever in the history of time in 2023…….
https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-...and-export-oil |
Originally Posted by DWC CAP10 USAF
(Post 3854856)
Will these refineries be biddable on the next AE?
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Originally Posted by Trip7
(Post 3854847)
Where did you get that information?
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Originally Posted by Flyler
(Post 3854891)
Here is a rough synopsis. Yes we produce lots of oil but there are different grades of oil. Almost ALL oil drilled in the US is exported.
https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-...and-export-oil The United States does not export most of its oil. While the U.S. has become a significant player in the global oil market, it still consumes a large portion of its domestic production and imports oil to meet its needs. Oil Production and Consumption In 2022, the United States produced approximately 20.08 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum and consumed about 20.01 million b/d. This indicates that domestic production closely matches consumption. Exports and Imports The U.S. has seen a significant increase in oil exports in recent years: • In 2023, the U.S. exported about 10.15 million b/d of petroleum. • Crude oil exports accounted for 4.06 million b/d, or 40% of total U.S. gross petroleum exports. However, the U.S. also continues to import oil: • In 2023, the U.S. imported about 8.51 million b/d of petroleum. • Crude oil imports were about 6.48 million b/d, accounting for 76% of total gross petroleum imports. Net Exporter Status While the U.S. does not export most of its oil, it has become a net petroleum exporter in recent years: • In 2023, the U.S. was a net petroleum exporter of 1.64 million b/d. • This marks the third consecutive year of being a net total petroleum exporter. |
Originally Posted by Trip7
(Post 3855037)
Im not finding any source that says the US exports almost all of its oil
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Originally Posted by texas1970
(Post 3854822)
Unless our favorite president gets Boeing and Airbus to deliver planes on time, that ain’t happening.
I am always amused by people who think things will magically change in some huge way. Barring insanely high tariffs or essentially impossible levels of mass deportation to crash the economy, absolutely nothing will change on a scale that quick. The economic impact of most policies is measured on the scale of years to decades. The most likely policy to affect hiring immediately would be age 67. That would probably result in a reduction of 300-400 pilots needed per year for two years. |
Originally Posted by Nantonaku
(Post 3855044)
Take a look at the markets! Of course a new administration has the ability to greatly affect the economy. The US economy is a recoiled spring held back by bureaucracy and unnecessary regulation. The economy is very likely to start cooking (which will benefit the airlines bigly) again after the new administration cleans house. Airline growth is highly correlated to GDP growth. Any idea when we had our biggest PS checks?
I think it’s a tall task for any administration to replicate how good the last four years have been for legacy airline pilots. I hope you’re right and the next four years are even better. However, no way are we going to see 20% returns on the S&P in perpetuity. |
Originally Posted by Flyler
(Post 3854891)
Here is a rough synopsis. Yes we produce lots of oil but there are different grades of oil. Almost ALL oil drilled in the US is exported.
https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-...and-export-oil |
Originally Posted by Extenda
(Post 3855051)
well sure…but also your 401k, assuming it was in an index like most people should be doing almost doubled the last four years. We also got enormous contractual gains. Most people, me included, had their salary double the last 4 years.
I think it’s a tall task for any administration to replicate how good the last four years have been for legacy airline pilots. I hope you’re right and the next four years are even better. However, no way are we going to see 20% returns on the S&P in perpetuity. The pay raises of 20% at time of signing seems like we just barely made it even. |
Originally Posted by Apejackson
(Post 3855074)
Yes, the last few years markets have been great and we got great gains to our PWA. But how does that all compare when you account for the insane inflation that also occurred in those same few years? Housing is up almost 50%. Inflation on day-to-day items is up over 20%.
The pay raises of 20% at time of signing seems like we just barely made it even. As for housing, assuming you owned before covid, like most delta pilots, it just means your equity has increased, while probably taking advantage of once in a lifetime low interest rates. I’m not saying people aren’t struggling. I’d say 80% of people are having a tough time, and made that clear to the incumbent party, but to argue that times have been tough the last 4 years by any metric for a legacy airline pilot I think is a tough sell. |
Originally Posted by Extenda
(Post 3855077)
Yes, but if you literally make 6 figures more a year, the fact that groceries are a few hundred dollars more a month is a good trade off. Just subtract what your average salary was 4 years ago, vs your average monthly expenses, and note how much more disposable income you have at the end of the month now.
As for housing, assuming you owned before covid, like most delta pilots, it just means your equity has increased, while probably taking advantage of once in a lifetime low interest rates. I’m not saying people aren’t struggling. I’d say 80% of people are having a tough time, and made that clear to the incumbent party, but to argue that times have been tough the last 4 years by any metric for a legacy airline pilot I think is a tough sell. My investments are at an all time high. My house has increased value by 50-60% over the last 6 years. Even with a spike in inflation (which was a global thing), still coming out way ahead. |
Originally Posted by Flyler
(Post 3854834)
Drill all you want the refineries in the US are not set up to refine the type of oil we have in abundance here in the US. They’re set up to refine oil from the Middle East, if they refined US oil they’d do so at a loss. That’s why we export all of our oil. But hey, pilots know everything…
Anyway where are the new AEs!? |
Originally Posted by Whoopsmybad
(Post 3854858)
Yes, oil rig helos MSY, but I heard Jan not Dec. my last van driver told me.
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Originally Posted by Extenda
(Post 3855051)
well sure…but also your 401k, assuming it was in an index like most people should be doing almost doubled the last four years. We also got enormous contractual gains. Most people, me included, had their salary double the last 4 years.
I think it’s a tall task for any administration to replicate how good the last four years have been for legacy airline pilots. I hope you’re right and the next four years are even better. However, no way are we going to see 20% returns on the S&P in perpetuity. At Delta, a primary driver to the increase of anyones 401K in a MUTUAL FUND were company contributions, not return on investment. Not sure who you include in your generalization of "most" people, are these people who have upgraded to captain? Did they move from a regional to mainline? A significant change in salaray has been the result of a significant change of position independant of who is running the government. A hope of perpetual returns in the stock market of anything other than the average historical norm of 10 percent 'ish is baseless strawman. Everyone hopes the future is better. The fact is that it will be both, better and worse. |
Originally Posted by SixStrngPilot
(Post 3855195)
This is not reality. The last four years were most significantly impacted by what happened in 2020-COVID. An unprecedented number of senior pilots left Delta followed by unprecedented hiring, both are exclusive of who was running the administration. The salaries of all major airline pilots have been baked into the cake for decades; again, independent of administration. Your salary increases because it is contractual. That has been accellerated recently as a result of tumult caused by COVID.
At Delta, a primary driver to the increase of anyones 401K in a MUTUAL FUND were company contributions, not return on investment. Not sure who you include in your generalization of "most" people, are these people who have upgraded to captain? Did they move from a regional to mainline? A significant change in salaray has been the result of a significant change of position independant of who is running the government. A hope of perpetual returns in the stock market of anything other than the average historical norm of 10 percent 'ish is baseless strawman. Everyone hopes the future is better. The fact is that it will be both, better and worse. All this flies in the face of the argument that “thank God ______ got elected, now things can start to get a lot better" My point is the last four years have been a golden age of prosperity and advancement for legacy airline pilots that is unlikely to be even close to replicated regardless of who is in charge. |
Originally Posted by SixStrngPilot
(Post 3855195)
A hope of perpetual returns in the stock market of anything other than the average historical norm of 10 percent 'ish is baseless strawman. |
Originally Posted by OOfff
(Post 3855201)
Even this seems extremely dubious, especially in real terms
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Originally Posted by Extenda
(Post 3855207)
I think since inspection the S&P is historically at 7%. But with the dividend yield of 1.5-2% reinvested it kind of acts as a hedge against inflation long term.
i am not sure forcing investment with 401ks will yield infinite growth forever. large numbers catch up to us all |
Originally Posted by Extenda
(Post 3855199)
I think we’re kind of talking past each other. I’m not claiming what happened the last four years was because of whoever was in charge. A series of events unfolded where we got massive seniority boost, massive pay raises, and massive stock market returns. I don’t think pointing out how the market has done the last 4 years is a strawman, as everyone clings to that as an argument whenever their candidate is in charge.
All this flies in the face of the argument that “thank God ______ got elected, now things can start to get a lot better" My point is the last four years have been a golden age of prosperity and advancement for legacy airline pilots that is unlikely to be even close to replicated regardless of who is in charge. he who controls the executive branch also controls the NMB. With that in mind, good luck to us on our upcoming Section 6. I’ll be lol’ing at all the flight deck consternation. |
Originally Posted by Nantonaku
(Post 3854798)
There are thousands of newly minted millionaires this month. Elections have consequences.
Also looking at the last 4 presidential terms (using Election Day to Election Day): From Election 2020 to 2024, the S&P was up 77%. From Election 2016 to 2020, the S&P was up 57% From Election 2012 to 2016, the S&P was up 48%. From Election 2008 to 2012, the S&P was up 55%. Oh, and both Election 2000-2004 and Election 2004-2008 were both negative! Draw your own conclusions, but Biden, Trump, and Obama all oversaw roughly equal periods of stock market growth. |
Originally Posted by iahflyr
(Post 3855219)
You’re living in a fantasy world. 3 weeks after the election, the S&P 500 is at 5969. On Election Day, it closed at 5782. That’s barely up 3%. A little short term pop for sure, but I don’t expect a 1% a week increase to continue going forward. Certainly not massive amounts of newly minted millionaires.
Also looking at the last 4 presidential terms (using Election Day to Election Day): From Election 2020 to 2024, the S&P was up 77%. From Election 2016 to 2020, the S&P was up 57% From Election 2012 to 2016, the S&P was up 48%. From Election 2008 to 2012, the S&P was up 55%. Oh, and both Election 2000-2004 and Election 2004-2008 were both negative! Draw your own conclusions, but Biden, Trump, and Obama all oversaw roughly equal periods of stock market growth. But seriously, anyone who thinks the POTUS has much if any effect on the stock market, gas prices, price of eggs, etc etc in the short term is a partisan hack. Economic policies set by one administration generally have effects down the line. Deregulation of the banking industry took a long time before it caused the '08 recession. |
Originally Posted by SideStickMonkey
(Post 3855223)
S&P 500 Index Funds FTW!
But seriously, anyone who thinks the POTUS has much if any effect on the stock market, gas prices, price of eggs, etc etc in the short term is a partisan hack. Economic policies set by one administration generally have effects down the line. Deregulation of the banking industry took a long time before it caused the '08 recession. |
Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo
(Post 3855241)
Need to go back to the savings and loan debacle of 88-89. Probably before your time.
Did I grasp the finer aspects of micro and macro economics, not quite yet. |
Originally Posted by SideStickMonkey
(Post 3855223)
S&P 500 Index Funds FTW!
But seriously, anyone who thinks the POTUS has much if any effect on the stock market, gas prices, price of eggs, etc etc in the short term is a partisan hack. Economic policies set by one administration generally have effects down the line. Deregulation of the banking industry took a long time before it caused the '08 recession. https://www.perplexity.ai/search/mar...TJSS0hJR14v6Ew |
Originally Posted by tallpilot
(Post 3855161)
That's the primary purpose of the Keystone pipeline, send the heavy sour Canadian tar sand crude to the docks by the refineries so it can be put on ships and sailed to the refineries where it can be best processed. There is some capacity for sour crude refining in Houston but most are setup to crack sweet crude.
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Originally Posted by Trip7
(Post 3855350)
Interesting - yes. Meaningful - no. For the most part Presidents just ride the economic waves they are dealt to the best of their ability. Case in Point - Bill Clinton. Elmer Fudd could have been president when the tech boom and the internet took off in the mid to late 90s and the market would have done great. Did Bill Clinton cause the tech boom or did he just happen to be President when it took off. Well in fairness he did have Al Gore as his VP who did in fact invent the internet. :) Scoop |
Originally Posted by Extenda
(Post 3855199)
I think we’re kind of talking past each other. I’m not claiming what happened the last four years was because of whoever was in charge. A series of events unfolded where we got massive seniority boost, massive pay raises, and massive stock market returns. I don’t think pointing out how the market has done the last 4 years is a strawman, as everyone clings to that as an argument whenever their candidate is in charge.
All this flies in the face of the argument that “thank God ______ got elected, now things can start to get a lot better" My point is the last four years have been a golden age of prosperity and advancement for legacy airline pilots that is unlikely to be even close to replicated regardless of who is in charge. Just to add a bit, for some years now those with the stratosphere incomes have had a significantly lower tax burden than those just a generation ago. Airline pilots in the 70's were well paid. But their tax burden was higher than today's well paid pilot. FWIW |
Originally Posted by OOfff
(Post 3855213)
it is indeed, but assuming infinite growth is hard to reconcile with reality.
i am not sure forcing investment with 401ks will yield infinite growth forever. large numbers catch up to us all |
Originally Posted by DeltaboundRedux
(Post 3855671)
This kind of thinking keeps me awake at night.
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Originally Posted by iahflyr
(Post 3855219)
You’re living in a fantasy world. 3 weeks after the election, the S&P 500 is at 5969. On Election Day, it closed at 5782. That’s barely up 3%. A little short term pop for sure, but I don’t expect a 1% a week increase to continue going forward. Certainly not massive amounts of newly minted millionaires.
Also looking at the last 4 presidential terms (using Election Day to Election Day): From Election 2020 to 2024, the S&P was up 77%. From Election 2016 to 2020, the S&P was up 57% From Election 2012 to 2016, the S&P was up 48%. From Election 2008 to 2012, the S&P was up 55%. Oh, and both Election 2000-2004 and Election 2004-2008 were both negative! Draw your own conclusions, but Biden, Trump, and Obama all oversaw roughly equal periods of stock market growth. The President that the the Supreme Court decided was President, was 50% below the rest. Maybe it was the wars after Tora Bora that lacked much rationale, or the bubba-sphere of letting folks like "Kenny Boy" and Jeff Skilling run wild. |
Originally Posted by DeltaboundRedux
(Post 3855671)
This kind of thinking keeps me awake at night.
Seems we have decided to remove uncertainty. Everyone seems to assume that the recently elected President will NOT do what he says he will do: new taxes, rounding up undocumented workers, going farther and faster than Bush or Reagan did with deregulation while replacing boring moderate expertise with political zealots. I think he will. Many moderates go frightened and sold into the Trump bull run last time. They missed the government spending lolapalooza that inflated equity markets and deflated purchasing power. Where is the easy safe haven? |
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