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Old 04-06-2025 | 07:05 AM
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Default Economy 2.0

Originally Posted by FangsF15
+1.

I will say again, I think it's extremely premature for any of us to be actually worried about displacements (other than long-speculated SEA 330, eventually. Maybe.)
.
I disagree AND hope I am wrong. This self induced black (*****) swan destruction of the economy is just getting started. It could easily be as bad or worse than the super recession and associated 30% schedule reduction. I think we’ll absolutely see not only displacements, but “what’s a SIL’s” and early outs…. And that’s the best case scenario. We’ll learn more soon…. And like I said…. I HOPE I am wrong. Less & less time to recover from this shizzle before retirement….

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Old 04-06-2025 | 09:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Softheborder
I disagree AND hope I am wrong. This self induced black (*****) swan destruction of the economy is just getting started. It could easily be as bad or worse than the super recession and associated 30% schedule reduction. I think we’ll absolutely see not only displacements, but “what’s a SIL’s” and early outs…. And that’s the best case scenario. We’ll learn more soon…. And like I said…. I HOPE I am wrong. Less & less time to recover from this shizzle before retirement….
My flights have been full, almost full, or oversold. Not seeing this winding down yet and I think you are dooming a bit much.
Old 04-06-2025 | 09:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Softheborder
I disagree AND hope I am wrong. This self induced black (*****) swan destruction of the economy is just getting started. It could easily be as bad or worse than the super recession and associated 30% schedule reduction. I think we’ll absolutely see not only displacements, but “what’s a SIL’s” and early outs…. And that’s the best case scenario. We’ll learn more soon…. And like I said…. I HOPE I am wrong. Less & less time to recover from this shizzle before retirement….
At my seniority, this would be awesome!! Early outs, easy summer, then come roaring back again and hire 2k+ next year? Do it, do it now!
Old 04-06-2025 | 10:11 AM
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Originally Posted by Softheborder
I disagree AND hope I am wrong. This self induced black (*****) swan destruction of the economy is just getting started. It could easily be as bad or worse than the super recession and associated 30% schedule reduction. I think we’ll absolutely see not only displacements, but “what’s a SIL’s” and early outs…. And that’s the best case scenario. We’ll learn more soon…. And like I said…. I HOPE I am wrong. Less & less time to recover from this shizzle before retirement….
I respectfully submit you will be happy to be wrong. This is needless panic. The fundamentals of the economy are strong. The stock market (which is NOT the economy) hasn’t crashed, it’s back to where it was roughly a year ago. The market was due a correction, and this precipitated it.

Stolen from an old friend who is a MBA and the CEO of a moderate-sized wealth management corporation. And, he is no fan of the current administration.

“The US has the 13th LOWEST Exports-to-GDP ratio in the world, and the 5th LOWEST Imports-to-GDP ratio in the world. The US is the most economically independent nation in the G20.

When it comes to trade, other countries need the US a helluvalot more than we need them. So no, the sky is not falling, even if the market is.”
Old 04-06-2025 | 10:13 AM
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Originally Posted by FangsF15
The fundamentals of the economy are strong.
You're right in that the U.S. stock market is not the economy. You are wrong however on this: the fundamentals of the entire global economy have indeed changed.
Old 04-06-2025 | 10:19 AM
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Originally Posted by demon llama
You're right in that the U.S. stock market is not the economy. You are wrong however on this: the fundamentals of the entire global economy have indeed changed.
The fundamentals of the US economy have not changed. Maybe the fundamentals of US trade, but not the economy. Even then, it’s very early days to be making any proclamations either way.

I just think everyone needs to take a breath. Seriously.
Old 04-06-2025 | 10:20 AM
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Originally Posted by FangsF15
The fundamentals of the US economy have not changed. Maybe the fundamentals of US trade, but not the economy. Even then, it’s very early days to be making any proclamations either way.

I just think everyone needs to take a breath. Seriously.
trade is the economy.
Old 04-06-2025 | 10:33 AM
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Originally Posted by FangsF15
I respectfully submit you will be happy to be wrong.
Like I said, I’ll be HAPPY to be wrong. 1,000 off the top and a 10% LOA haircut to keep the bottom 10% on the list would be fine with me. Maybe the US Senate will grow a pair and stop the train wreck. Not holding my breath. I think it’ll take some serious pain & mid-terms to stop the insanity.
Old 04-06-2025 | 10:43 AM
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Originally Posted by OOfff
trade is the economy.
No, it’s not. It’s a small-ish part. If this “plan” works, it will be a bigger part. Reference the quote above re Trade-GDP ratios.

FWIW, I’m skeptical it will go smoothly, but even it it doesn’t, the world will not collapse.
Old 04-06-2025 | 10:50 AM
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Originally Posted by Softheborder
I disagree AND hope I am wrong. This self induced black (*****) swan destruction of the economy is just getting started. It could easily be as bad or worse than the super recession and associated 30% schedule reduction. I think we’ll absolutely see not only displacements, but “what’s a SIL’s” and early outs…. And that’s the best case scenario. We’ll learn more soon…. And like I said…. I HOPE I am wrong. Less & less time to recover from this shizzle before retirement….
Europeans are announcing more flights to the US this summer and also up-gauging but you think we have a 30% reduction coming? Because the stock market went down? And unemployment numbers are unchanged? You have less and less time to recover for your own planned retirement, maybe you shouldn’t be in such volatile assets so close to retirement.
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