Wow! You are incredibly pro-AUS. Do you commute from there? You alone will WILL it into existence with this level of motivation.

You might want to check again on 73N flying in AUS. Today alone, every flight from JFK, MCO, and LAS is on the 73N. Network has been ramping up its presence there. They won’t commit to a single fleet type in AUS, especially if it ever reaches hub status.

”Hub” and “pilot base” are two very distinct entities at Delta. I’d put the odds of AUS becoming a small hub (on paper) at 50/50. The odds of it ever seeing a pilot base are close to zero.

Yet they still flew more than twice as many passengers out of AUS in May of this year vs. Delta. We’re not even close.

Not at Daddy D, but I'd suspect you have the same problem as all the network carriers - pilot domiciles are expensive, and are only brought into existence when the operational flexibility they allow outweighs the costs they incur. I suspect - and I assume to your point - AUS would have to become an even larger city than it is now, with more premium O&D traffic that Delta (or anyone else, for that matter) could capture before they'd invest in domiciles, much less anything other than a primarily domestic mini-hub/focus city. Unfortunately for Rip, it's currently the number 4 MSA in Texas, and less than a 3-hour drive from two large fortress hubs in far larger MSAs, both with significant international reach.

Precisely, I’m manifesting and clearly biased.
I do live in base currently.

I see some arguments that don’t make sense though. For example, AUS not being the size of DFW & IAH is completely irrelevant; and no they are not in eachother catchment areas. SAT is but its underserved and will likely lose catchment to AUS. AUS is a key geographic white space for Delta that needs to be filled since DFW closure.

AUS is perfect for DL to capture the rapidly growing TX market that’s full of young professionals with disposable income/want premium - in one of the nations fastest growing cities, rich with gov business/big tech/corporate, HQ’s/education/formula one/live music capital.. ATL and SLC do not effectively serve pax west of the Mississippi to SLC.

DL offers a clear competitive product against AA in DFW (minus a 3hr drive) and a night&day diff product than WN in AUS (doesn’t have the resources, cash, or interest in growing AUS any further - Elliot consolidating to “hubs” DAL-HOU). WN is already exhausted defending AUS against AA & WN doesn’t have the deep pockets to be a loss-leader in AUS for long-term majority market share. In addition, no intl. network, alliance, first class, soft service, clubs..

AUS and SLC have similar CSA’ at 2.6M & 2.8M respectively. GDP: AUS $248B - SLC $147B. AUS is not some small city - it’s large and booming; it only appears small due to being near Houston and Dallas. It’s the capital of the world’s 8th largest economy (TX alone). And, #22 GDP nation wide. If you’ve been following Velvet, FLT Ops, & Network discussions from management it is clear they intended to dominate Austin. Adding intra-TX flying from a “out station”? No. If you can’t tell AUS is being built up as a hub I’m not sure how else to explain it.

The primary issue with AUS is gate space which is finally in the works. Simply put, if ABIA would’ve grown the airport proactively it would replicate SLC’s airport operation today (non-DL specific). AUS has been bursting at the seams, and will continue to do so even if they add the full 40 new gates to terminal B. In fact, AUS is being designed precisely like SLC & ATL to support efficient aircraft movement & hub operations. It doesn’t help either that AUS was fastest growing city for 12 years with no growth to show for it - all of that growth is untapped at the airport due to gate limits.

I’ll repeat. The only reason Austin hasn’t been hub-ed is do to ABIA’s inability to produce gates. Once said gates are available - Delta will hub. Southwest is actively losing market share by the month, AA has been passed, and Delta is growing insanely fast. When Delta receives 15 gates in 2030 (or more) it’ll ultimately become a 150-200 daily departure operation if Delta can get their hands on all the gates they want. Plus, JV operations to ICN+CDG+LHR with a 30,000 sq. ft. Skyclub.

73N operations from MCO, LAS, etc. are dwarfed by the 320 operations. I’d say the 320 volume lands around ~85% of mainline operation, 220 ~10%, and ~5% for 73N rough estimate.

Is the AUS320 base in the room with us right now?

The problem is network rarely wants to commit to flying a specific fleet type for the number of years that justifies opening a pilot base there. We might start connecting passengers through AUS, but I'm skeptical Flight Ops opens a 320 base there.

I admit I don’t follow the AUS progress and always thought of it as a college town where a distant cousin went. If it’s the next greatest metropolis, then I’m sure Delta will get a piece of it. I am un convinced that it becomes a pilot base but I don’t have any input on the bases. We seem to have consolidated more than grown our bases since I started at Delta and I don’t see that changing. I hope I’m wrong for the sake of those Austonians, Ausies, Austonauts or whatever they are called.

220 is more than 10%. It’s currently used for SEA, BOS, TPA, SFO. If a hub comes to fruition, it’ll likely be deployed on any new, thin routes there.

73N had zero presence in AUS a year or two ago. Its appearance reflects the fact that network has zero interest in making AUS (or any station) a single-fleet operation. MAX deliveries will have an effect on its utilization as well.

Many of your comments about the AUS market are correct. However, the only career expectation that any of this may lead to (for a Delta pilot) is a slight increase in AUS layovers.. If you happen to be on the right “flavor of the month” fleet at the right time.

I've said many times that AUS is a perfect place for the next Delta hub. I'm not going to repeat what Ripinpeace says, it's all the same things.

Just look at a map of our bases - there is huge gap right in the middle of the S central USA. American has DFW, United has IAH, Southwest has DAL/HOU. We have MSP... doesn't do a good job capturing the growth in the southern USA. AUS is well situated.

Will there be a pilot base? It only took what... 31 years for them to bring Boston back? The company does not like adding bases, as much as we all wish they would.

If there is a base, I'd put money on an A220 base at first, then an 320 base. AUS is perfect for a 220 base, a long range aircraft, with a passenger-friendly cabin for premium/tech-heavy markets, and not too big to dilute revenue and it can still hit the major economic centers from AUS. I think we'll see a 320 base only because we're getting so many of them, and they'll up-gauge the biggest markets from AUS with the 320/321. Yea, we have other airplanes and we'll see them go through there, but I don't think we'll see a base for the 737s there for a long time.