huh? gold has tripled since 201 when he was prognosticating about it going to 50k. s&p? almost 6x.

 

If we are in trouble, guess what? Others airlines will be in deeper trouble, some might even sense to exist, which is a door opening for future expansion. Maybe Delta is predicting that…we need more pilots and airplanes for future growth.

 

Since 2001? What numbers are you looking at? Gold has TROUNCED the S&P and it hasn't even been close.

12.4% CAGR for Gold vs 9.2% (including dividends)CAGR for the S&P since Jan 1st 2001

And that's just physical Gold. Gold miners are leveraged to the Gold price so even better, life changing Wealth Building there

 

Think about it logically too. Last year was 8.9%. This year so far we've put aside less money for PS than this time last year, and that's only with a few weeks of high fuel prices at the end of March. With the price of fuel the way that it is for the near to medium term future our profit margin is going to be severely diminished. Add to that a higher wage base this year, I can easily see PS being 5% or less this year.

 

2011 since he started his rant. 50k was his target. lol

 

For that time period the SPY indeed has the advantage, 10.3% CAGR total return to 8.5% for Gold.

 

Gold is insurance against down markets, not a long term investment. When the market takes a header like the dot com bust, GFC and COVID, cash in the insurance (sell) and buy the market at a discount. A 25% correction in the S&P 500 (5,250) is where to cash in part of the insurance and buy the S&P. At 40% correction (4,200), cash in more of your insurance policy and buy more S&P 500. Over the ensuing years, rebalance by selling S&P and buying insurance. The recent market hasn't hit any of the execution thresholds.

Substituting managed futures contracts for a portion of gold will generate yield while holding the insurance. CTA and DBMF are two worth consideration.

I'm amused by the "all in" attitudes on investments that are balancing mechanisms in a well constructed portfolio. Don't let the dopamine rush kill your portfolio. My technique involves relatively small accounts at Tradestation, Robinhood and Coinbase where I can chase dopamine. The real stuff is at a different institution or a deed recorded at the county away from the thrill of the chase.

 

I agree on Gold. Gold Miners are a value investor play. Gold Miners trade as if Gold is $3000. Gold recently dipped to $4300. The miners are printing cash and returning it to shareholders thru buybacks or dividends. The value investor gets paid to wait.

For most people indexing/broad ETFs/Bogleheads is the way to go. But if one has a passion for securities analysis, 4th grade level math skills, and calm emotions, they can easily beat market returns by mastering the principles of value investing. If an individual can do good valuation work, the market will reward them. Yes I am "All in". I'm All In on deep value. And I'll go to any sector that I can find it.

On this very forum the hate for Viasat was extreme, while the love for Starlink endless. Hate is one of the easiest ways to make money in the market as Mr. Market drives sentiment to nonsensical levels. Viasat stock was driven below the replacement costs of its assets, because of Starlink airline deal headlines. The lucrative government contracting side of the business was virtually free at $10/sh. Today Viasat is up over 600% from a year ago. Buying Joel Greenblatt style LEAPS resulted in 10x+ returns.

We are blessed with our 18% DC and Brokerage link option that can manage more money than many hedgefund managers start with. Combining that with a value investing strategy can yield incredible wealth.

 

You're wrong about the PS for Q1 2026 vs 2025. We're $41M ahead right now: $165M vs $124M.

 

I really don’t think trip’s numbers are far off. Last year we made 6.7B in profit, and had an 8.9% PS check. If the only negative associated with the war/SOH closure is a 2B higher fuel bill leading to 2B lower profit AND our wage base stayed the same, our PS% next year would be 5.7%

if we make 3B less and our wage base grows by 5%, it would be 3.8%