acl65pilot

Buck of anyone, I know you knew what I was saying.

The money I make now is a lot less than the money the senior guy is making with his extra five years. I still have to work those last five years to obtain the same seniority that I would have under an age 60 rule. Ergo, my five years where there is no movement are at the bottom of the list and not at the top. The only real winners here are the guys on the top. Everyone else just gets to wait five years to have the seniority they would have had five years sooner with out the law being changed.

Bucking Bar

ACL65: That's very true when one considers the future cash value of present day earnings. With the result of the merger, economic downturn and other factors it is a whole lot easier to become a "sheeple" than contemplate the economic results of recent career decisions. I plugged the merger result and fleet into the spreadsheet used to pick Delta. When saw the result I decided to never look again.

The formula of (Delta + NWA)*Bloch = eight year step backwards. Nothing I can do about it now and you pointed out that the analysis was just resulting in becoming "whiny." In balance, FedEx never gave me a class date and is now talking furloughs. Our friend at Gulfstream just landed in the G650 program, one can hope

I did notice the RJ cuts were absent. They are "right sized" units of capacity and fuel is cheap at the moment. Same dynamic that gives the DC9's a renewed lease on life resonates with the CRJ fleet, they are nearly interchangeable fleets. (as you already know, just completing a thought).

acl65pilot

yes, they have been given a stay to their execution. Look for it in 2010.

sailingfun

65 hurts no doubt but your assumptions are off a bit. First you have to remember that on average only 50% of pilots made it to 60. Half took early retirements, medical out, were asked to leave ect....
With the age going to 65 even a smaller percentage will make it to 65.
I saw a graph that put the actual impact of the 65 change at about 2 years advancement per pilot. 2 years is still not good but its not 5 years.

Dash8widget

Accountants actually look at it the other way around; the net present value (NPV) of future earnings. Due to inflation (and the potential return on investments made today), money is worth more now than in the future. If we could take our total career earnings and divide it into equal payments over the time of our career, we would be way better off. Or, better yet - take an upfront lump sum payment .

Bucking Bar

True, accountants and economists look at that differently. Now, explain the differences between GAAP and STAT principles stating examples and case interpretations where necessary.

Why are we flying airplanes? We have obviously been educated far beyond our intelligence.

Dash8widget

After I got pass the time value of money concept, I fell asleep for the rest of that class. All I really needed to know was after I win the lottery, do I take the 50% lump sum, or the 20 year payments . Besides, I wanted to be a big shot airline pilot - what use would I have for accounting principals?

iaflyer

It's the press stirring up things to make a headline. The Delta press release said:

Capacity Discipline
In 2008, Delta demonstrated its firm commitment to capacity discipline and its ability to quickly reduce
fixed and variable costs associated with reduced capacity. Delta led the industry in early 2008 in
responding to high fuel prices and the weakening demand environment, resulting in a reduction in
domestic capacity of 11% in the last six months of 2008. Delta’s flexible and cost efficient fleet is a
unique tool that allows the company to reduce capacity quickly. In 2009, the company plans to remove
40-50 mainline aircraft from the fleet as it eliminates the fixed costs associated with its 6 – 8% system
capacity reduction. In addition, in January 2009, Delta offered its second voluntary workforce reduction
program in 12 months to more closely align its staffing with lower capacity levels. Delta will continue to
monitor the demand environment and has full flexibility to further reduce capacity if warranted."

The 40-50 mainline aircraft are the reductions that were already announced - the Delta summary of their press release said:

"Delta will continue to be a leader in capacity discipline. As a result of declining global demand, we announced in December a 6 – 8% system capacity reduction for 2009, including an 8 – 10% decrease in domestic and a 3 – 5% decrease in international capacity. "

So - the 6%-8% reduction has already been announced, they are just highlighting it in the press release to show they are doing something about capacity. Also, if I remember right, when they announced the reductions last year, it was 40-50 mainline-equivalent airplanes (ie: more RJs than 50, but it added up to 40-50 mainline). As ACL65 said, the RJs might of got a reprieve and may not be getting cut as fast.

acl65pilot

Exactly. there is not much new here.

Superdad

How much more capacity can they cut without having to furlough?