Strategy to Defeat TA2015
 

We're now at two days past the MEC vote, 4 days into the sales job, and only 28 days from the close of voting. The overwhelming consensus among the posters here, including many of those who voted for C2012, is that this TA is hugely disappointing considering today's lucrative negotiating environment, that we're not much worse off in traditional Section 6 and would reap a bigger eventual payoff, and the T/A should be resoundingly turned down by the Delta pilot group. There are a few ALPA insiders and P2P guys here defending the TA, but they're in a distinctly small minority. Everyone else is continually uncovering new reasons to vote no as we delve into the language itself.

That's all good and well, but those who post and even read APC form a tiny minority of the Delta pilot group. If the message never goes further than here, the TA will likely pass, because the MEC administration already has a plan in place along with a communications machine, road shows, negotiator's notepads, etc. Unless we come up with an equally effective communications plan, the average Delta pilot will only hear the MEC admin's side of the story. The last two days on the line have been deafeningly quiet. I've discussed the TA with my CA, but I haven't heard a peep about it in the crew bus, in the MSP, DTW or ATL crew rooms, or from crews I've exchanged aircraft with. That needs to change, and quickly, or it will be too late. I'm thoroughly convinced that with some coordinated effort on our part, this thing can be defeated. In fact, I'm making it my goal to not merely defeat the TA, but defeat it in a resounding "historic" fashion: by 60%+. It would send a clear and unmistakeable message to both DALPA and management.

Now even though APC guys are a minority, my sense is that they're also much better connected than the average line pilot. We need to take advantage of that. APC can be the base, or one of the bases, through which we coordinate our response. There is a wide range of talents evident on this board. Some of us are good at writing, others at public speaking, some at number crunching, others at legal analysis, and some at graphic design. We need to pool our talents in an organized manner. I don't know, perhaps some of you already are. If so, PM me and let me know how I can help. We can't be a loose assortment of tiny groups operating in a vacuum without helping and advising each other. I'll be PMing some of you in the next day or two for help with a project I have going.

In the meantime, here is my suggested overall strategy for defeating the TA. This is copied directly from the back of a cocktail napkin as I brainstormed this afternoon, so I'm 100% certain that it can be improved. The main thing, though, is to spend minimal time refining it, and maximum time translating it into real action.

1. Own the Online Battlefield

APC is just the first toehold. ChitChat, Facebook, Twitter, and Google+ all need to be places that there is a steady stream of communication against the TA so that anyone coming to these places for information is going to encounter our message. Post often and gain maximum visibility for the best posts with requotes, retweets, likes, shares, and +1s. Once voting opens keep reminding people about exactly where and how they can register their no vote. The audience includes segments of our entire pilot group, but most especially the "New Hires" (2007-2015) for whom social media is second nature. We need this group to vote in absolutely huge numbers and 90% against the TA in order to obtain our goal. My sense is that this group, which includes many of my friends, is predisposed against the TA, but they are going to need to be motivated to not only vote no but also to take strong action to influence fence-sitters, including many of the Captains they are flying with.

2. Develop a Few Succinct Talking Points

One of the problems we're encountering early on is the hydra effect, where there are so many potential problems with the TA and so many ways of looking at it that it is creating confusion. We need to focus our efforts on a few key points and hammer on them simply and relentlessly. My 3 suggestions are:

• TA2015 Costs Delta Pilot Jobs. It sets our share of the AF/KLM JV even lower than where it is at now after 4 years of company non-compliance with the previous language. It allows the MEC chairman to approve a foreign alter-ego. It outsources yet more 76 seat jumbo-RJs; the 100-seaters they are tied to are not growth aircraft. It proves that DALPA is not willing to hold the line on scope, which is the only guarantee we have of continued employment.
• TA2015's Increased Pay is Offset by Concessions. Once the profit sharing reduction is accounted for, pay increases only 14.86% by 2019; plan on 2% inflation, and our buying power increases by a mere 7.68%, or 2.2% per year. To pay for this miserly increase during a time of record multi-billion dollar profits, we give up QOL provisions. Every single FO and even junior CAs will be impacted by OE trips being pulled from PBS; the increased TLV will result in everyone flying more; and the marginal increases in training and vacation pay (no credit) will result in those events continuing to mess up your bidding every few months.
• TA2015 Will Potentially Decrease Safety. The company claims that sick leave abuse is rampant among our pilot group but has produced zero evidence of their claims. To fix this supposed problem, they wish to take sick leave verification out of the hands of the chief pilots office and put it into the hands of a non-pilot third party whose job will be to minimize sick leave usage, who will have access to our health records, and who will determine our fitness to return to duty with severe FAA medical implications. This will have a chilling effect, encouraging pilots to fly while sick and fatigued. Similar harassment is already common at the regional airlines and has arguably contributed to several fatal accidents; we can never allow this to happen at Delta Air Lines.

I'd also suggest that we create a unifying slogan, ideally one that points out the wide gap between this TA and what we were previously promised by our union. Off the top of my head I'll suggest "TA2015: Wrong Time, Wrong Target" or "TA2015: Time To Vote No!" I'm sure someone here can come up with something catchier.

3. Create Visible Opposition On the Line

Many line pilots are likely unaware that there is any opposition. We need to create constantly visible signs that there is a revolt underway. Bag tags, lanyards, stickers, & stacks of leaflets in the crewrooms, crew buses, and distributed to those we interact with every day will create curiosity and make pilots seek out sources of information other than the official ALPA line. We need people with experience in manufacturing to get these out ASAP, and others to donate the money needed to procure them.

When others do ask you about the TA, it's very important to discuss it in a calm and respectful manner, and in a way that does not jeopardize CRM or otherwise compromise safety. The facts will speak for themselves; we just need to convince folks to look at all the facts and not merely the baubles that ALPA is trotting out.

4. Create Visible Opposition at Road Shows

This is where the MEC administration is going to try to dazzle the fence-sitters with bull****; we can't let that happen without a resounding answer. Starting in Cincinnatti, we need to show up at these things en masse and turn them into our venue to educate the undecided. We need to bring signs, distribute leaflets, object when falsehoods are uttered, clap and cheer when they are refuted - and where recalls are in process, publicize them.

5. Don't Let the Other Side Fluster You. Fluster them.

The real-life counterparts of posters like alfaromeo and slowplay are heavily involved in this process and their stock in trade is to use sneering condescension to try to belittle, fluster, upset, and ultimately silence pilots who refuse to fall in line. Don't let them get to you, don't get emotional, fight back by ignoring them and addressing the real audience with calm logic. They sidelined DPA by painting TC as a raving lunatic after he got emotional and made some poor decisions. Don't let them do the same to you. Several of these guys have very fascist, controlling, anti-democratic inclinations, and it will drive them absolutely nuts that you're using their venue to effectively spread your message. You see how poorly they responded to comments on their Facebook page? Keep that up!

5. Recruit the Insiders

This cannot be done entirely outside of ALPA; we need DALPA to be a house divided for the duration of the voting. We need the reps who voted no to continue to be vocal no matter how much the MEC admin and national try to put a gag order on them. We need their words distributed well beyond their own councils. We need to peel off a couple of the reps who were inclined against the TA but were pressured into voting for memrat on the cynical "let the pilots vote" argument from those who ignored line pilot input in the first place. Those who know these guys personally need to start working on them right away. Those who cannot be "turned" need to be recalled, or at least have the credible thread of recall distracting them from selling the TA.

Nearly all of these reps are true believers in ALPA, though their faith in this particular MEC administration may be shaken. One of their worst fears is DPA successfully challenging for representation. I'm not going to tell you what to do re: DPA. I'm not sure I want them on property myself; how I would vote in any actual election is probably dependent on DALPAs behavior over the next month. But I've finally concluded that DPA deserves the chance to be heard, and furthermore needs to rattle DALPA's cage. I've finally been provoked into turned a card in, and I'm guessing many others have as well. Each card increases our leverage. But let's not confuse our Defeat TA2015 drive with a DPA drive, nor let ALPA paint us as a bunch of DPA supporters.

That's all I've got. Discuss here...but moreso, discuss with PMs, emails, phone calls and in-person meetings, and turn the talk into action. Quickly. Most of us here at Delta are pretty happy, and happiness breeds apathy. I know it took this "historic" TA to shake me out of it. I think it had that effect on a lot of us, and the MEC may have just unwittingly awakened a sleeping giant.

I'll bet it passes by 75%.

I'll take that bet Pack.

Not helpful.

Outstanding young man! I never thought I would send a card in for DPA but it is on it's way with a donation. I like all the points you have made here.

With the condensed time frame now upon us, it may even be worth considering working with DPA. I have been reading their website and they do have money pouring in right now. ALPA will use your money and lots of it to push POS2015. It will take money and resources to stop this train wreck from happening. Instead of holding your nose and voting yes for this awful TA, hold your nose and be willing to do whatever it takes to stop it, up to and including working with DPA. The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Your cynicism is understandable. I would guesstimate that TA2015 would do worse than TA2012.

With TA2012, a total of 62 percent of the pilots who voted were in favor of the agreement. Of the 10,864 pilots eligible to vote, 94 percent cast ballots.


I'd given you the post of the day if you said "it's got a better chance of passing than a Delta plane has in getting into Juno on a foggy day." :D ;)

The campaign can only be won with boots on the ground.

Step 1. Get emails going around about the cons of the agreement. Like a commercial, the more someone sees something the better chance that they'll buy it. Bombard all Delta pilots with this nformation over and over and over.

Step 2. Be VOCAL in the cockpit. Every. Single. Trip. Make a small packet that discusses the negatives of the TA and give it to the guy/gal sitting in the other seat.

Step 3. Coming in a few hours early on your commute? Set up shop in your lounge during peak report times. Get a sign that says "ASK ME WHY IM VOTING NO" and advocate a "no" vote with every single soul you can.

Step 4. Be visible! I would suggest creating large & bold VOTE NO bag tags.

Step 5. Repeat step 1-4 as many times as possible.

Very well thought out message, and right on point JungleBus.

The one thing I might add is reach out to your friends and acquaintances on the seniority list.

I think everyone should continue to let their Reps know their concerns whether they voted to ratify the TA or not, and, as always, be respectful.

TA2015: The path forward begins with NO!

NO!!!!

http://i775.photobucket.com/albums/y...otwithFist.jpg

Total Flame Bait. You know that is not true. But I am sure you will put your money where your mouth is and accept Buzz's offer.

I am sure you have already sent Buzz a PM arranging your wager.

Buzz - Please keep us posted.

Packrat - Will you be taking additional bets?

Scoop

Yuck! Can you make some in Bama colors? :D

I had a Delta jumpseater on almost all my flights the last few days, asked what they thought. The vote is going to be close, I would say it depends on the ability of ALPA to sell it. Which, on that fact alone, should be a no vote.

What we really need to do is delay the closing of this TA vote until AFTER this quarter's earnings report comes out on July 15! I'll bet Delta earns enough in just this one quarter, to cover the entire 3 years of this TA costs increase, or about $1.2 Billion!

Why would we rush into a vote prior to hearing the earnings report?

Great Post Jungle.
I have a few inputs:
• Identify your target audience. FTB had something in a recent post about “low information voters” who see the MEC passed it, and don’t get much further than the money. Find them and let them know why the agreement merits rejection.
• Figure out how to reach that audience. For example, the junior pilots will be critical to this effort. Social media has already been mentioned and is a game changer. Face to face or phone contact is better for other demographics. Senior/older pilots may need some schooling on exactly what the ramifications of the proposed sick policy are, especially with the advent of “big data”.
• I’d stay away from advocating for, or even mentioning the DPA. You correctly identify that this TA vote is on a VERY compressed timeline (and I’m sure the MEC Comm staff have a stack of products “in the can” and ready to go out every few days)… Make the TA your target. In concert with the first point, realize there is a sub set of pilots who MAY oppose the TA, but definitely oppose the DPA. IF your goal is a TA rejection, you’ll need every voter and can’t afford to alienate these pilots with DPA rhetoric.
• POINT PAPERS… Refine the talking points you had above. Perhaps you can get some consult and council from former reps or guys with Comm experience. Then, create easy to understand papers detailing the few worst, “deal-breaker” concessions. Be sure they are accurate, as they are going to be attacked viciously by an opposition that is very well funded (by your dues money), experienced, and fully staffed.
• SOCIAL SUPPORT… Back each other up online and in crew lounges. Don’t let NO voters be marginalized. In line with that, don’t behave in a manner that will allow you to be cut from the pack. Create a unity of message by staying on the point (TA rejection) and ONLY the point..(see DPA comments above)
• Help others to understand “the other side of the trade”…WHY does DAL want an early deal? WHY are they willing to bring RJs to mainline? How will having labor “back on the table” play on Wall Street?
• Finally, counter misinformation and fear-selling from the PRO crowd.
o This is being characterized as an ultimatum delivered by your union: vote YES or NMB hell for years. Is that really true?
o What has been strategically left out of the products coming from Comm? Many of these items are already being identified as pilots do their own reading. Probably another great topic for a pass-out paper would be all the BAD stuff that has been omitted in ALPA Comm products.

Again, great and timely post.

The earnings are well forecast. They always come in reasonably close. Easy to look at the projections. If you do want to push for a no vote the one thing that needs to happen is factual information that is correct. Posting a bunch of BS that will be shown to be wrong will kill any effort. The opening post in this thread is a example.

If you guys aren't on:

Thehangar.forumchitchat.com

please stop by for more input directly from only Delta pilots and some former LEC/MEC reps and Negotiators.

Clemson orange...how much I want 3

While we should be concrned with the MEC spin machine, the TA really only has one positive and that's money. A raise that's significantly paid for by deep cuts in other areas, with a few minor positives sprinkled in here or there for effect, like 15 minutes of vacation pay per day, but no credit! LOL!

This TA is so embedded with deeply concessionary items that it will take some time to overcome the quick sugar high of section 3 pay tables. Factoring out the PS reduction, this is an 8/0/4/3 raise, but even that doesn't include the massive concessions all around. There are numerous items that are worth a percent or two of pay, and some that could devastate the entire gains of the contract, like foreign alter egos with just one man's blessing.

So 8/0/4/3 could easily become 3/-5/-1/-2 if we lose just 5% earnings with a combination of foreign alter egos, E190's and even more 737's to replace higher paying equipment, massive loss of marketshare to AF/KLM while our share degrades to lower paying equipment, massive sick leave harassment and likely many "hostages" taken by the company to further intimidate the masses, lost jobs from the higher TLV, lost jobs from reserves being available early AM on day one again, lost jobs from 75% of OE trips vanishing from the bid and the tricke down effect of that, the effective end of the soft "hammer" we have WRT the pay review with UAL/AA, etc.

This could EASILY become a cost negative TA for us even though our rates do go up.

I say we give the company 100M back as a gesture of good will, and accept only 1.0B in additional value over the life of the agreement and put it into payrates alone. I don't know what ?/?/?/? that would be, but I'm willing to let those numbers fall where they may, keep current book, put the rest in pay rates and gift 100 million back to the company.

They wouldn't possibly have a problem with that, would they? I mean, Shirley the numbers were all costed out 100% correct, right, and Shirley they would *never* do any of the worst case things, right? Right?

I'd better warn you before you bet your house with Buzz, Nothing has ever passed at Delta by 75% yes, except our strike vote in 2001 and paying Cobra benefits for our furloughed guys, those were both 95%.

Even our fabled C2K was only about 70-30 yes. Our last TA in 2012 was 62-38, and many of those Yes voters (me included) have already said they are not voting yes again for this thing.

Perhaps my estimate was a bit too high. But I've seen enough pre-vote sturm und drang like this to know the TA will pass.

Why? Because even though you Internet warriors are all fired up, the average pilot is non-confrontational by nature and will eat a bad contract to avoid the alternative.

The best joke: Once it passes, you won't be able to find a single pilot who admits voting for it.

What I find strange, is that if you have a job that's worth millions, which is an aspect of the Delta pilot job, you should have a personal attorney review your contract before voting, yet most pilots don't.

Yup, Barron's has already figured out this TA will SAVE Delta about $600 Million:

Why Delta?s Pilot Deal Could Be Bad News For Southwest - Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com

Forgot about Clemson, at least ya'll have a former Bama player as coach! I was thinking AU & TN...

FWIW, just ordered myself a bag tag (shutterfly.com).

May get myself a nice mug, magnets and wrapping paper for the holidays as well....

I love it!!!

That may become my FB profile picture. Does it have a copyright? Never mind, it's FB:D

I like the bag tag. I blew up and laminated a copy of the image in my signature and hung it on my bags.

I sent u a PM junglebus

Here's one for everyone

Why do you like this TA?

Junglebus,

I'm tied up with mil stuff right now or I'd co-chair the effort. If tying the Vote No Campaign to DPA would lessen the effect, how about a gofundme effort to gather contributions from very concerned Delta pilots? If half the folks who voted No on the APC poll contributed $100 each, that would be some $20000 dollars to produce and distribute mailers - probably about right for 12,000 copies. $100 is a small price to pay compared to the losses we'll see if this TA becomes reality. I'd be the first donor.

Also, isn't it ironic that we are each paying $100 or more for DALPA to produce a glossy propaganda mailer that most of us disagree with? Absolutely sad.

Here's the thing. You need a solid retort to flip pilots and even then money is going to trump everything with certain pilots.

My buddy texted me today that on the ATL320 his Captain said "I'm too old to wait around for pay raises." Well, what about sick leave? Doesn't matter, I'll get a Doctors note. But... doesn't matter... but... doesn't matter... but. And so on.

Basically, if you want this voted down split in two and charge both directions.

First, whether you're a Captain or an FO, you go after the FOs and the removal of trips. Get your hands on the names of LCA, take the July category wide report for July and scratch off every trip of a LCA. Show that to FOs and at roadshows. If it's as bad as it probably is, it may get some attention. FOs are 53% or so of the pilot group.

Second, you go after any pilot with WIDEBODY LIFE stickers on the back of their car and this JV language. If the data is what we think then you have enough ammo to scare some pilots that their future aspirations are in jeopardy. The data has to be really good and not stretched, something that the NC/MEC can't debunk. If they think they're being manipulated they'll just focus on the pay raises and vote yes.

If you go DPA, guys will tune out. I wouldn't even go after the company, I mean I fully expect them to want us to fly for free and never be sick. The focus just has to be about the TA and mindset of a MEC Chairman and NC that agreed to it and how they need to try again. The MEC does have a Plan B and have openly said so.

Agreed.

Carl

Because THE DALPA MACHINE wants an 8% increase in dues on July 1st, and whatever kick backs they have been guaranteed by DAL 4th floor for shoving this tird down our throats!

I'd agree with the dues thing..to me thats the only thing that makes sense about this. ALPA wants to push it through since we are getting a bump in pay and they get more dues. They could care less about how bad we get hosed in the other areas. Pretty obvious.

Jungle bus, thanks for your leadership on this issue. Would you be willing to coordinate with some of the other smart and well-reasoned folks here (Denny, ftb, Carl, gloopy, georgetg, etc) to compile a list of questions for the road show. They could then be disseminated here, fb, chitchat... Tape to the crapper walls, etc.

By "questions," I mean a kind of lengthy background followed by a short question. Not necessarily a filibuster--more like a question you might see from a congressman during a confirmation hearing. It gives his position, and at the very end, slips in a leading or difficult question he likely already knows the answer to put the subject publicly on the spot.

This might be a non-confrontational method to overcome the one-sided material presented by Dalpa and get our message out. Of course the actual questions won't actually be answered, but it would be a chance to get our message out there in front of a new audience. We'd only need a few to hammer home scope, sick leave, LCA trip pulls, etc.

Thoughts?

I really like the wide reports idea. Recommend printing Dec 2014 to illustrate how much more likely it will be to spend Christmas in a hotel.

Any way to look up LCAs historically?