Harwood's Ode to FUD
06-20-2015, 06:29 PM
#21
The Brown Dot +1
Joined APC: Jun 2009
Position: 777B
Posts: 7,775
Originally Posted by forgot to bid
#1 should be concerning.
#3 shows that just like in 2012, delta has no interest in its big 50 seat rj fleet or a massive fleet increase at mainline.
#3 shows that just like in 2012, delta has no interest in its big 50 seat rj fleet or a massive fleet increase at mainline.
Dyodd, ymmv, roflmao, Kma, lol.
06-20-2015, 08:37 PM
#22
La Familia Delta
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: B-717 FO / C-17 AC
Posts: 2,467
The post about Delta (and other majors) lowering its forecast this year is correct, yes.
With that being said, Delta is still projecting its best Q2 EVER. It will also have its best Q3 EVER. and it will have its best Q4 EVER.
Again, despite lowering its forecast for 2015, Delta Air Lines is STILL projecting to have its best year, EVER.
Did I mention Delta is going to make more money this year than ever has in its history, despite revising its forecast downward
No more doom and gloom please
With that being said, Delta is still projecting its best Q2 EVER. It will also have its best Q3 EVER. and it will have its best Q4 EVER.
Again, despite lowering its forecast for 2015, Delta Air Lines is STILL projecting to have its best year, EVER.
Did I mention Delta is going to make more money this year than ever has in its history, despite revising its forecast downward
No more doom and gloom please
06-21-2015, 04:20 AM
#23
Straight QOL, homie
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: Record-Shattering Profit Facilitator
Posts: 4,202
Sinkr8 griped because he felt TA leaks and the ensuing debate were costing us money.
I expect him here any minute to gripe about how Harwood is actually the one costing us money with this tripe. And the irony is, Harwood is costing us money...while being paid our money.
Sinkr8 will be here in 3...2...1...
I expect him here any minute to gripe about how Harwood is actually the one costing us money with this tripe. And the irony is, Harwood is costing us money...while being paid our money.
Sinkr8 will be here in 3...2...1...
06-21-2015, 04:24 AM
#24
The Brown Dot +1
Joined APC: Jun 2009
Position: 777B
Posts: 7,775
Originally Posted by Purple Drank
Sinkr8 griped because he felt TA leaks and the ensuing debate were costing us money.
I expect him here any minute to gripe about how Harwood is actually the one costing us money with this tripe. And the irony is, Harwood is costing us money...while being paid our money.
Sinkr8 will be here in 3...2...1...
I expect him here any minute to gripe about how Harwood is actually the one costing us money with this tripe. And the irony is, Harwood is costing us money...while being paid our money.
Sinkr8 will be here in 3...2...1...
06-21-2015, 07:28 AM
#25
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2015
Position: stake holder ir.delta.com
Posts: 10,057
Originally Posted by Free Mason
This is F.U.D. and this is what is going on in the marketplace:
Consolidated passenger unit revenue (PRASM) for the month of May decreased 5.5 percent year over year, with roughly half of the decline due to foreign exchange pressure and lower surcharges in international markets and the remainder from lower domestic yields. Delta now expects consolidated PRASM for the June quarter to decline approximately 4 to 5 percent, with the change from previous guidance a result of lower-than-expected close-in domestic business yields.
Delta Air Lines, Inc. - Delta Reports Financial and Operating Performance for May 2015
BTW Delta pulled this story from Deltanet in just about an hour because the next day they made their case in front of the industrials conference for Q2 and beyond.
This is the weakness that has gone on since last year. This there is more there, tell me the path with uncertainty in the industry. You did not have this in C12. It was a upward trajectory. This is not. Profits are high, but decreasing.
Consolidated passenger unit revenue (PRASM) for the month of May decreased 5.5 percent year over year, with roughly half of the decline due to foreign exchange pressure and lower surcharges in international markets and the remainder from lower domestic yields. Delta now expects consolidated PRASM for the June quarter to decline approximately 4 to 5 percent, with the change from previous guidance a result of lower-than-expected close-in domestic business yields.
Delta Air Lines, Inc. - Delta Reports Financial and Operating Performance for May 2015
BTW Delta pulled this story from Deltanet in just about an hour because the next day they made their case in front of the industrials conference for Q2 and beyond.
This is the weakness that has gone on since last year. This there is more there, tell me the path with uncertainty in the industry. You did not have this in C12. It was a upward trajectory. This is not. Profits are high, but decreasing.
The domestic side is trending lower because the rest of the industry is trying to compete. We had a two year lead on other mergers and now the consolidation effect is rationalizing the market. There is a dip but the leveling out point will create long term stability. Now is the time for big gains while we still out pace the market!
This is old news I addressed it a while ago. http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/de...ml#post1894227 http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/de...ml#post1894248 http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/de...ml#post1894495
Last edited by notEnuf; 06-21-2015 at 07:53 AM.
06-21-2015, 08:53 AM
#27
Runs with scissors
Joined APC: Dec 2009
Position: Going to hell in a bucket, but enjoying the ride .
Posts: 7,728
I don't know if this has already been posted on APC somewhere, I just took it off Chit Chat with the writer's permission to put it here. This is WHY Richard always wants to open early and control the process, throw up fake boogie men and say that's his last offer. The post begins below:
I write this as a former ALPA volunteer whose job was partly to gauge the temperature of the pilots and partly to figure out what the company was going to do, and how to combat them. I have studied negotiating and know where we fouled up and how to fix this debacle. We have very real options. While there will be a few who vote yes based on narrow self-interests, most who vote yes will do so out of fear of what 'might' happen. I wrote the following to show why the company won't and can't react the way the MEC believes that they will. (Initially they will, but not for long.) Please spread it far and wide as I believe the arguments will carry more weight than a simple discussion of the numbers. Most negotiations are won based on emotion and not facts. We need to change that emotion from fear of the future to confidence in the future.
Why Richard is afraid of you
The MEC is trying to sell this TA largely based on the fear of what Richard Anderson will do if we turn the TA down. Yet the MEC is requesting police presence at the road shows, why? Because the MEC is afraid of you and so is Richard. We all know that the TA is a shameful piece of work that never should have seen the light of day. It trades profit sharing for too little pay (and changes the rules on how PS is calculated that could result in greatly reduced payouts), gives up big airplane flying to our JV partners, a ridiculous sick leave modification to a program that was the companies to begin with, and trading MD88’s for E190/195’s. They tell us Richard is a tough negotiator. He will drag us out years if we don’t cooperate, etc. Here is why that won’t happen.
First understand his position, its lousy! He has no leverage and most importantly, he has no alternatives. He doesn’t have another supplier, period. Also, his supply is going to be rapidly retiring. (By the way that will drive the overall cost of the contract down as the seniority list gets more junior. He can afford way more!) He can’t play nice or we will take him to the cleaners, so his only option is hardball. However, that is only going to anger us, so he needs a sweetener and a stick. The sweetener is the airplane orders and the stick is the threat of dragging it out. There are other arguments as well. However, all of those arguments are false.
Richard has painted himself into a corner. He has told Wall Street that he would have a deal with us by January. If you know anything about Wall Street, they expect promises to be kept, and react harshly when they are not. Some say Richard can’t be seen giving in to a Union. Well, Wall Street expected us to demand a deal worth twice what is in the TA. We are unlikely to achieve a deal that valuable now that the TA is out. This means that, even when we improve this deal, Richard will still be able to beat Wall Street’s expectations. Wall Street also wants the profit sharing gone or greatly reduced and they want it now. That is why Richard will have no choice but to come to the table with a better offer, sooner rather than later.
Also, remember that the company was going to spend $750 Million on dividends and stock buy-backs. They have upped that to $6 Billion during negotiations! Does that sound like they don’t have the money!
He also has a huge aircraft problem on his hands. The MD88’s are unable to be modified for Next Gen, and the FAA is insisting that ALL aircraft be capable by 2020. Richard has publicly stated several times that the 88’s will be gone by then. The problem is, neither Boeing nor Airbus have enough delivery slots available to replace them in time. He is left with E-190/195’s and the new C-series from Bombardier, which he has publicly stated that he likes. He can get the 190’s for cheap, because Boeing took them in trade from another customer and wants to get rid of them. Richard can’t pass up that deal. He also has Bombardier on the hook as they have sold very few and desperately need to sell some before they go bankrupt. It won’t hurt that a former NW executive just took over that division at Bombardier. The bottom line is he can’t delay the orders for long. Remember, all those jets will pay less than an 88, so a big savings to him and a pay cut for the more junior pilots. All those 757 pilots getting bumped to A321’s and 737-900’s are also getting a cut and saving him even more money.
He also needs a deal before FedEx, SWA, and UPS sign their contracts because this TA only brings us to their current rates. After they sign new contracts, they will be paid much more than we would be on this TA.
In short, he can’t afford to drag this out, he needs a deal now. If we vote this down, he will surely puff up his chest and try to play hardball for a while, because remember, his position stinks, and he needs to try and scare us into accepting minor improvements to this TA. Let him act tough. We will still have our great profit sharing and a better sick leave program. We can literally wait and do nothing and he will be forced to come to us before the end of the year. Or we can go on the offensive. We developed many tactics that we are legally allowed to carry out right now and they have a great effect on management. We proved that in ’06. For example; the company so hated ‘the Rat’ that they went to the city of Hapeville, and lobbied for an ordinance that stops it from being used. At least they think so; we already have a way around that ordinance. So whether we wait or go on offense,(Offense is the best option.) we will get a deal and soon.
I also want you to consider something that Richard has been saying to Wall Street for some time now. He says he doesn’t compare us to other airlines anymore because we are so far ahead of them and he expects to be for a long time. He says we are a transport index stock like Union pacific, FedEx, etc. So why is our union trying to compare us to other airlines? Also, weren’t we told that we were investing in Delta’s future when we were forced to give up almost half our pay and some gave all of their retirement while others had it frozen? So why, when that investment is finally paying off big, is he trying to take it from you? Because he doesn’t value you! He doesn’t appreciate that we are doing more for less. You are a cost, not a valued employee.
Richard is afraid that you will see through his posturing and he will have no choice but to greatly improve this TA. Judging by the way the CVG and ATL road shows went this week; the line pilots’ have figured it out. The choice is clear. Vote this TA down and vote it down overwhelmingly. Send Richard and our MEC a message they can’t ignore.
Mark Thompson
CVG M88A
I write this as a former ALPA volunteer whose job was partly to gauge the temperature of the pilots and partly to figure out what the company was going to do, and how to combat them. I have studied negotiating and know where we fouled up and how to fix this debacle. We have very real options. While there will be a few who vote yes based on narrow self-interests, most who vote yes will do so out of fear of what 'might' happen. I wrote the following to show why the company won't and can't react the way the MEC believes that they will. (Initially they will, but not for long.) Please spread it far and wide as I believe the arguments will carry more weight than a simple discussion of the numbers. Most negotiations are won based on emotion and not facts. We need to change that emotion from fear of the future to confidence in the future.
Why Richard is afraid of you
The MEC is trying to sell this TA largely based on the fear of what Richard Anderson will do if we turn the TA down. Yet the MEC is requesting police presence at the road shows, why? Because the MEC is afraid of you and so is Richard. We all know that the TA is a shameful piece of work that never should have seen the light of day. It trades profit sharing for too little pay (and changes the rules on how PS is calculated that could result in greatly reduced payouts), gives up big airplane flying to our JV partners, a ridiculous sick leave modification to a program that was the companies to begin with, and trading MD88’s for E190/195’s. They tell us Richard is a tough negotiator. He will drag us out years if we don’t cooperate, etc. Here is why that won’t happen.
First understand his position, its lousy! He has no leverage and most importantly, he has no alternatives. He doesn’t have another supplier, period. Also, his supply is going to be rapidly retiring. (By the way that will drive the overall cost of the contract down as the seniority list gets more junior. He can afford way more!) He can’t play nice or we will take him to the cleaners, so his only option is hardball. However, that is only going to anger us, so he needs a sweetener and a stick. The sweetener is the airplane orders and the stick is the threat of dragging it out. There are other arguments as well. However, all of those arguments are false.
Richard has painted himself into a corner. He has told Wall Street that he would have a deal with us by January. If you know anything about Wall Street, they expect promises to be kept, and react harshly when they are not. Some say Richard can’t be seen giving in to a Union. Well, Wall Street expected us to demand a deal worth twice what is in the TA. We are unlikely to achieve a deal that valuable now that the TA is out. This means that, even when we improve this deal, Richard will still be able to beat Wall Street’s expectations. Wall Street also wants the profit sharing gone or greatly reduced and they want it now. That is why Richard will have no choice but to come to the table with a better offer, sooner rather than later.
Also, remember that the company was going to spend $750 Million on dividends and stock buy-backs. They have upped that to $6 Billion during negotiations! Does that sound like they don’t have the money!
He also has a huge aircraft problem on his hands. The MD88’s are unable to be modified for Next Gen, and the FAA is insisting that ALL aircraft be capable by 2020. Richard has publicly stated several times that the 88’s will be gone by then. The problem is, neither Boeing nor Airbus have enough delivery slots available to replace them in time. He is left with E-190/195’s and the new C-series from Bombardier, which he has publicly stated that he likes. He can get the 190’s for cheap, because Boeing took them in trade from another customer and wants to get rid of them. Richard can’t pass up that deal. He also has Bombardier on the hook as they have sold very few and desperately need to sell some before they go bankrupt. It won’t hurt that a former NW executive just took over that division at Bombardier. The bottom line is he can’t delay the orders for long. Remember, all those jets will pay less than an 88, so a big savings to him and a pay cut for the more junior pilots. All those 757 pilots getting bumped to A321’s and 737-900’s are also getting a cut and saving him even more money.
He also needs a deal before FedEx, SWA, and UPS sign their contracts because this TA only brings us to their current rates. After they sign new contracts, they will be paid much more than we would be on this TA.
In short, he can’t afford to drag this out, he needs a deal now. If we vote this down, he will surely puff up his chest and try to play hardball for a while, because remember, his position stinks, and he needs to try and scare us into accepting minor improvements to this TA. Let him act tough. We will still have our great profit sharing and a better sick leave program. We can literally wait and do nothing and he will be forced to come to us before the end of the year. Or we can go on the offensive. We developed many tactics that we are legally allowed to carry out right now and they have a great effect on management. We proved that in ’06. For example; the company so hated ‘the Rat’ that they went to the city of Hapeville, and lobbied for an ordinance that stops it from being used. At least they think so; we already have a way around that ordinance. So whether we wait or go on offense,(Offense is the best option.) we will get a deal and soon.
I also want you to consider something that Richard has been saying to Wall Street for some time now. He says he doesn’t compare us to other airlines anymore because we are so far ahead of them and he expects to be for a long time. He says we are a transport index stock like Union pacific, FedEx, etc. So why is our union trying to compare us to other airlines? Also, weren’t we told that we were investing in Delta’s future when we were forced to give up almost half our pay and some gave all of their retirement while others had it frozen? So why, when that investment is finally paying off big, is he trying to take it from you? Because he doesn’t value you! He doesn’t appreciate that we are doing more for less. You are a cost, not a valued employee.
Richard is afraid that you will see through his posturing and he will have no choice but to greatly improve this TA. Judging by the way the CVG and ATL road shows went this week; the line pilots’ have figured it out. The choice is clear. Vote this TA down and vote it down overwhelmingly. Send Richard and our MEC a message they can’t ignore.
Mark Thompson
CVG M88A
06-21-2015, 09:42 AM
#29
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2015
Position: stake holder ir.delta.com
Posts: 10,057
I hated flying with Mark. Just kidding. He's a critical thinker that is well informed and one step ahead of your thought process. He makes you think at cruise and all I wanted to do is enjoy the smooth ride. GREAT GUY!
06-21-2015, 10:35 AM
#30
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: Dismayed
Posts: 1,598
Originally Posted by notEnuf
I hated flying with Mark. Just kidding. He's a critical thinker that is well informed and one step ahead of your thought process. He makes you think at cruise and all I wanted to do is enjoy the smooth ride. GREAT GUY!
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