The Alternate Path –Focus on Management Response
Strategic Planning Committee

Delta MEC Special Meeting, June 2015

What happens with a failure to reach a deal?

.We will explore the range of possibilities and most likely response to a failure to reach agreement
.Management’s Actions
.MEC Actions
.NMB and political considerations
.Recovering any interim lost value in the search for a new deal

A Range of Management Possible Reactions

.They could come back with a better deal containing more value
.They could state for the third time this is their final offer and leave
it on the table
.They could continue to bargain within the financial constraints on the table today
.They could withdraw their offer and slow the pace of negotiations


History of current management team

.In the Delta/NWA JCBA we failed to reach agreement during the January-February 2008 talks
.When the JCBA was finally reached in June 2008, the deal was valued at about $250 million less than the original tentative agreement in February.
–7%, 4%, 4%, 4% became 5%, 4%, 4%, 4%
–Retirement parity was lost (5%)



.FAR 117 deal did not get better when we went back to get rid of SDP’s
–We lost the 13 hours notice for long call reserves

History of current management team

.Comair
–Comair had high costs due to longevity of pilots and management proposed to restructure their contract
–They turned down the offer initially
–Eventually the pilots came back to offer a restructuring but it was too late

.Endeavor
–Endeavor faced the same issue in their bankruptcy
–They accepted the restructuring and stayed in operation
–Nearly 10% of the pilots on the list at that time now work for Delta and they have had two incentive programs to retain current pilots

History of Current Management Team


.Alaska code share
.Boeing and the 787 delays
.Korean Air code share
.Mesa and overcharging on the DCI contract
.Onboard duty free sales were terminated


Global issues for management


.They negotiate with many players
–Boeing, Airbus, AF/KLM, Aeromexico


.They are facing a more active group of shareholders
–The stock buybacks and dividends are their attempts to assuage them ahead of our deal


.They have twice said this is last best offer
.If their last best offer turns into a much better offer they may
perceive that would hurt them in these other negotiations
.The "New 100 Seat Aircraft" deals have drop dead clauses in case
there is no pilot deal
–No one knows if they will renegotiate those

Consensus on most likely course of action

.They have stated that if there is no deal they will walk away and
regroup
.They have stated that they will not get the "New 100 Seat Aircraft"
if there is no deal
–It is too difficult to tell what they will do with the aircraft
–Without productivity improvements they may not have enough bodies to fill
the seats, it depends upon future capacity growth plans

.Our opinion is that they will withdraw their offer and would move
to a slower pace of negotiations
.Our opinion is that if we could reach a deal in the near future it
will be on equivalent or worse economic terms than this deal

Management’s Viewpoint if We Delay Now

.They came to the MEC with a specific plan of action
.The MEC engaged on that plan of action
–If we now want to delay we are saying we want another plan

.They were willing to pay a premium to buy speed, simplicity, and
ease of execution of their business plan
.If we are trying to sell slow, complicated, and difficulties in
executing their business plan, they may not pay that premium

The NMB Process

.You have been briefed by a former NMB Chief of Staff and a current Board Member
.They have emphasized the strategies required to reach a timely deal
.If we fail to follow those strategies, then we must have well thought out reasons as to why our ideas are better and a specific
plan of action to obtain better results
.The NMB process is not “Anti-Labor” it is just slow and has always been slow
–In an up contract environment SLOW = BAD in our eyes


NMB Release Considerations

.The first step is to determine whether or not the NMB would ever
release Delta to go on strike
.Delta is 17% of the Domestic Market
.Would a strike at Delta conflict with the NMB mission to “avoid
interruptions in interstate commerce”?
.If a release is possible, when would it occur?

Political Considerations

.Next year is an election year, it is highly doubtful that we would
get a release
.The new President will be sworn in January 2017
–There would have to be some waiting period while the transition occurs where we would be far on the back burner

.If any release would occur, the soonest we could expect would be
sometime in late 2017
–Contract openers from this proposal would be in spring 2018

.Factors to consider which are mostly unknown today
–What will the global and economic environment look like then?
–What will the price of oil be then?
–What will domestic capacity and the pricing environment look like then

In the interim

.We don’t have to wait for a release to continue to bargain with the
help of the NMB
.As we have been told, they have a large workload and our case will
be considered “young” so we should not expect a robust meeting
schedule at first
.If we can keep the issues narrowed it will improve our chances of
moving things along
–Management may choose to add more items back in, especially in
productivity

Southwest vs. Delta

.Both Delta and Southwest opened contract negotiations in March
of 2012
.Delta completed a deal in May 2012 and all the gains from that
deal have been delivered to Delta pilots and will continue into the
future
–One billion dollars over three years
–Southwest continues to negotiate

.Delta has another TA ready for approval
–Southwest continues to negotiate, now in mediation

.Still Southwest continues to try to negotiate their first deal with no
sense of hurry from either their company or the NMB

Management’s Case to the NMB Using the Current Deal


.They are offering industry leading wage rates and profit sharing
.They are offering industry leading benefits
.They are offering industry leading work rules
.Contract 2012 increased average pay per pilot by $44,000 exclusive
of profit sharing and their offer is more lucrative than that
.They would argue that they need more large RJ’s to match the
growth
–In their view, it is not economically feasible to operate them under our contract

Our case to the NMB

.Delta is making huge profits and they can afford labor cost
increases
.Pilots gave in bankruptcy to help save the company and now that they are successful we should share in that success
.If management wants to fly more regional jets they can use Delta pilots, they don’t need contractual changes
.They are giving billions back to the shareholders, they should compensate us also


.Management is making a case based on economics
.We are making a case based on fairness
.Pilots at FedEx, SWA, and UPS have used the same fairness arguments with little results so far
.Which arguments would be considered in the “zone of reasonableness”?

Alternate Path if No Deal

.Management and ALPA retreat to their corners
–ALPA reduces activity to save money

.Insufficient information to decide whether or not they purchase the "New 100 Seat Aircraft" despite their claims that they won’t
.We meet again in August to further refine our plan
–We will need to redirect the Negotiating Committee


.Plan on a longer process with time to decide on SPC/DPN activities
.Most likely time for NMB action is late 20

The Alternative Path –Focus on Network and
FinancialsJune 10, 2015

If no TA, then what’s the alternative?

.Approximately 10 months from NMB involvement
.Appropriate for the Delta MEC to start planning for normal Section 6
in order to achieve line pilot desires
–Pay
–On time
–Scope

.Background and Factors to consider –Where are we today?


Alternative Path

.Where are we today?
–Finance and Network brief indicated same message… best paid.
–Profit sharing puts us further ahead… but at a declining value
•Before Christmas: 25%,
•After the New Year: 22.7%,
•Current estimate: 19.6%

–Domestic system was holding up, but concerns with capacity discipline.
–FX and Global Economy creating international challenges.

.Negotiators working diligently under your direction

Alternative Path

.Profit sharing puts us further ahead… but at a declining value
•25%, 22.7%, 19.6%

.PRASM declining for the industry and Delta

Before choosing the Alternative Path consider…

.Productivity improvements could allow additional flying to be added quickly
.This additional flying can help management explain to their Board giving a competitor a cost advantage -Finance and Network Brief
.Opportunity & Threats
–US -Mexico Open Skies
–Delta –Aeromexico ATI
–Embraer, Volaris, Interjet, SWA and anyone with a Texas hub

.“New 100 Seat Aircraft”
–LAX & SEA
–Absent productivity changes we may nothave the training capability to staff the new aircraft

The Alternative Path has financial implications

.What is the impact of delay on monthly pilot salary?
–Initial estimated impact is:
•Approximately $500k per day (first 6 months)
•Approximately $23.6M per month (first 18 months)

–Longer term
•$1.3 Billion by end of 2018

.MEC needs to compare old v. new Profit Sharing values as well as
other proposed PWA changes, i.e. vacation and training pay improvements.
.Most basic question goes back to the Contract Survey…

Pay, Pay, Pay, On Time and more Pay…

The Alternative Path and Politics, Pros and Cons…

.Factors that will impact a traditional Section 6 process
–No tough decisions during an election year
–New President January 2017
–US and global economic performance is not robust
–Fuel cost providing a tailwind to profits
–Domestic capacity increases a headwind to profits
•Delta, Alaska, Virgin America, SWA, JetBlue, and United capacity trends contributing to North American trends +6.7% in May
•GDP shrank -0.7% in 1Q2015

–NMB workload

The Alternative Path and the NMB

.NMB workload
–SWA
–FedEx
–Omni Air
–Omni Trax
–Gate Gourmet
–CSX
–UAL (flight attendants)
–Birmingham Terminal
–Par (IBEW)
–Metra (BRS)
–Virgin America
–Allegiant (dispatchers & pilots)
–ABX
–ExpressJet (TWU)
–ExpressJet (IAM)
–WCRR
–Sun Country

The Alternative Path and the NMB

.NMB workload
–NMB busy with a normal workload
–Our application comes Mar 31, 2016
–Case becomes a priority based on previously briefed factors
•Reference Linda PuchalaBrief
•Reference Steve CrableBrief
•Reference Bruce York Brief

–Difficult to see the NMB giving us priority anytime soon

The Alternative Path and the NMB

.Company perspective
–Normal Section 6 process is well defined
–No pressure from NMB, with Delta having offered:
•Industry leading salary
•Industry leading profit sharing
•Industry leading work rules/benefits

–Delta pilots have said for a decade they want to recapture small narrow body flying –may be some confusion if we don’t follow through.

The Alternative Path and the NMB

.Delta MEC perspective?
–Not difficult to shift focus
–Progress with NMB and company will dictate actions
•Strike Committee activation
•DPN Committee
•Facilities

–Timing is critical and expensive
–Our pace can slow to conserve resources
–PWA Section 3.B.4. raises unlikely if profit sharing unchanged
–LOA process could produce gains if company willing to negotiate

The Alternative Path and the NMB

.Consider all of this in the context of a bigger picture
–This time it is different! –maybe not…
–We don’t know what we don’t know, but we do have some independent sources to confirm information
•Domestic capacity increasing faster than GDP growth
•"New 100 Seat Aircraft”

–Cannot ignore the math
The Alternative Path

The MEC is responsible for the risk/reward evaluation connected to
choosing a timeline path.
.Which choice puts the most value in your pilots pocket?

–Consider
•This time it may not be different
•Math is compelling and irrefutable
•The 100 Seat Jetsmake Delta a stronger competitor, protect and defend our domestic market, seize the opportunity of Mexico-US Open Skies, help make LAX a real hub, increase head-to-head competition with Alaska making SEA stronger

Before making this choice, keep in mind industry
challenges since 2001

European Contagion
Japan/Mideast Regime…
Swine Flu
Economic Recession &…
Fuel Price Spike
Hurricanes (Katrina & Rita)…
London Terrorist Attacks
Avian Flu
Invasion Of Iraq & Iraq War
SARS Outbreak
Sept 11 and Impacts
Windows of Industry
Profitability

Weaker
Profitability

If you choose the Alternative Path

.Future Plan B considerations
–Polling?
–New Survey?
–Wait for next election cycle and new LEC reps to provide new direction?
–Wait for FedEx, UPS, and SWA to provide higher pay rates to facilitate pattern bargaining?

This path has been chosen by others. How will your strategy yield different results?