Seniority progression at Delta vs SWA
 

I'm not sure if anyone is interested in seeing this, but I ran overall system seniority for a guy hired at Delta today vs a guy hired at Southwest 10 months ago. Both with approximately 33 years left of flying. I then compared that system seniority to what it took to hold each aircraft and seat in ATL compared to what it took to hold each seat in one of our junior bases (HOU) and senior bases (MCO) at Southwest.

I was surprised to see that narrowbody progression at Delta in ATL closely mirrors our career progression at one of our junior bases here at Southwest. It also appears that widebody flying will make up a small part of your career at Delta if you are unwilling to sit at the bottom of the list. Keep in mind this is only in ATL though. NYC would be totally different. And also keep in mind this assumes 1% growth per year at Southwest and obviously doesn't take into account another merger/acquisition. I also realize the Delta calculator doesn't take into account front end hiring and is based off hiring for retirements alone.

Hope this helps anyone else trying to figure out what to do!

http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/me...454-image.jpeg

Well that didn't come out like I had hoped. Does anyone know how to post a picture that will actually come out clear on here?

For someone with 25+ years SWA may very well work out. SWA retirement wave hits later, and SWA doesn't hire as young as the legacies do.

If you believe they will keep to their "no furlough" promise and fix their retirement, then a younger guy might be better off.

Thanks proximity!
https://i.imgur.com/RphddeM.png

Nice work, but....... we have a 15 month captain at DAL. If you don't consider that, the statistics cited here are not worth very much. It is only going to get better at DAL for upgrades, and I wouldn't be that surprised if we hire off the street captains for the CSs.

You should remove the MCO information or include NYC info to be fair.

What does that tell you about NB life and the current contract.

It tells me that bigger pays more. Nothing else. More pay isn't going to change the fact that that airplane is going to do 5-8 legs/day (probably) You can read into that all you want.

That its great if you live in base. Don't just assume WB flying is all roses. Every type of flying has it's pro's and con's.

In my experience you can fly narrow body, work harder, and feel good, or international, which is much easier workload, but feel crappy all the time.

The best part of flying for DAL is that there is something for everyone.

Apples to oranges given the choice of flying available at Delta IMO. That choice is key.

What about the wear-and-tear of 4+ sectors per day (on average) on your body over 30 years at SWA? What is that worth to you? I know several Delta widebody FOs who will never go back to multi sector domestic flying...

While I agree, I feel that commuting to work with Delta will be far tougher than driving to work with Southwest regardless of the flying I do.

Don't get me wrong I'd love to fly 9-12 days a month on a 777 out of ATL with all weekends off, but after running the numbers I've realized that would make up a very small part of my career. If I'm going to primarily be on narrow bodies most of my career I assume just stay with Southwest and drive to work.

I flew MD-11's internationally before Southwest and while it was fun at first the novelty eventually wore off. I love flying 2-3 legs a day at Southwest on 3-day weekday trips, but to each their own.

I think you're spot on about the very small window for wide body flying in today's Delta. If you're getting 2-3 legs a day on 3 day trips, that beats the heck out of 3-4 leg days on 4-5 day narrow body trips (and yes, it happens on the 737) at Delta. Finally, Marcal's experience is not the current situation at Delta wrt narrow body domestic flying. There are a LOT of redeyes in the narrow body bid packages that are often in the same trip with 3-4 leg days and 10-11 hour layovers (9 if you dead head out next day). So that whole feeling good and rested bit about Delta domestic may have been true in his time, but not today.

Hope all the best for you and the boys at SWA.

Your calculator is just that... a calculator. Actual bidding and progression is non-linear. People's bidding practices are also non-linear and scattered. I'm approaching 10 years in and can hold any aircraft as an FO out of ATL as well as 88 and 717 captain. Choice is the spice of life! I've had 2 students recently who left SWA after a bit for DL.

With that said, you can't beat driving into work. I moved to mecca and it was the best decision possible!

You should run the numbers for SWA vs. UAL, especially given the similarly located junior domiciles (OAK/SFO). Also, there is a significantly larger impact widebody flying would have upon pay, QOL, and general career progression.

That would be much more informative for anyone living west of the Rockies.

Have you seen the range on the CSs? I wouldn't be surprised if we see long thin routes too. Maybe QOL will finally come to the NBs. One can hope.

http://commercialaircraft.bombardier.com/en/cseries/Flexibility/Range-Capabilities.html

You are assuming Delta and Southwest will have similar pay and work rules during the next 35 years...Gary feels he has to be competitive with other LCCs so that is a big assumption...

I'd rather be an International wide body FO for the rest of my career at Delta with 17-18 days off every month than be a 737 CA flying 4 legs a day to the same places all the time at SWA. Anyone who thinks narrow body flying 4-5 legs a day is an easy job is kidding themselves. Just an opinion but I have done both and for me it would be Delta hands down due to the variety of flying. The same can be said for American or United. If I was in my early 30's, I'd get the hell out of SWA ASAP unless I was living in base and drove to work. Even then, it would be a hard pill to swallow because of the fact that I'd be flying a 737 forever. Not my cup of tea and just an opinion.

Also, SWA, as successful as it may be and there are no doubts about that, is still a low cost carrier. American, Delta and United are global airlines. Something to think about.

You are absolutely right. Unfortunately all I can do is assume, know what I know today, and make a decision that is best for my family based on what I know today and what I think it will be like tomorrow.

I just keep coming back to the simple fact that with so much uncertainty I should just pick the airline that will provide my family with the best quality of life and that airline is Southwest pretty much due to the fact I can drive to work and have pretty good control over my schedule at all seniorities.

Trust me if it weren't for the fact I live near a Southwest only base (MCO) then this wouldn't even be a question, but I know me and I know I will choose weekends, holidays, and flexibility over widebody flying so when I look at the numbers for a decent mid level seniority on a widebody in ATL based on today's distribution I realize that time spent in a widebody will be short for me. But that's just me and knowing my schedule preferences so if the majority of my career will be spent in narrowbodies why not drive to work and enjoy the schedule flexibility that Southwest offers?

If I thought I could spend the majority of my career in a widebody commuting to a 3 day trip that was commutable on both ends, had one leg the first day, one leg the last day, and 30 hours off in Rome, etc then I would be all over that, but realistically speaking especially considering Delta is buying a lot of narrowbodies and loves the term "joint venture" that type of flying will make up a small part of my career so as nice as the "dream" of 9-12 days a month flying a 777 across the pond unfortunately that will just have to stay just that, a dream.

I only ran the numbers for ATL considering I live in the southeast and about the only commute I would consider would be a short one to ATL. I never even applied to United. With that said, I would be happy to share the file with anyone who wanted to adjust the numbers. The file isn't anything special. My numbers all came from the Delta guys lakeside-graphics site. I just interpreted the numbers as to how they applied to where I live and what I would most likely fly.

ATL might not be the best reference. MCO-ATL commuting is one of the tougher ones in the system. I know a lot of pilots who have chosen to do the MCO-NYC commute because it has a lot more commuting options (Delta, United, AA, Jet Blue, Spirit) and their seniority on respective equipment is light-years ahead of their ATL counterparts. Just another factor to consider.

Well I actually live west of TPA on the beach. I'm 30min from
TPA and 1+45 to MCO. I hear the TPA-ATL commute is brutal as well. Honestly if I wanted to commute to the northeast I would have applied to United for the widebody opportunities. I really just don't want to commute at all. I was considering a TPA-ATL commute because there are 12-15 1hr flights a day, but that is the extent of what I want to do.

I do still have my app in at American though. It seems AA would have a good balance of everything; easy commute or drive to work, tons of retirements providing for good upgrade potential, lots of widebodies, and MIA is a junior base "for now". It will be interesting to see what comes of their SLI and how seniority shakes out in MIA afterwards.

Obviously no one knows the future but say one day SWA closes the MCO base, then what? Delta used to have an MCO base a while back as I recall if I'm not mistaken, it's gone...
As an example, you can hold A330 FO at JFK with DAL with about 3-4 years seniority and once you get there, just stay there and enjoy life. Who says you must upgrade to Captain...Easily commutable from MCO.

That's definitely something to consider, but our CEO has made it clear our growth is going to be south. He wants to takeover South America which is also why our next base will likely be FLL. Furthermore, there is so many gates and overnights in both MCO and TPA that one of them would have to always be a base. There has been talk of a TPA base for quite sometime, but I believe it will end up being MCO and FLL which should also help reduce the seniority in MCO.

Not to mention I pickup a lot of day trips in open time that either start or end in TPA. Like today for example. Flying two legs and finish in TPA at 1545 having woken up in my own bed.

If SWA never closes the MCO base, then you staying put is justified...American is probably a better option for you than Delta considering the Miami base..Driving to work is hard to beat for sure.

Two things: It won't take 6 years to be a mid-level FO on the 717. Even in Atlanta. This is a snapshot that is skewed because of the stagnation that was happening up until a couple of years ago.

If you can drive to work, or even wake up in TPA and start and end a trip there (smells like VB to me) why would you even consider switching over to an airline you know you're gonna have to commute for? Is the pay that much better?

I appreciate the effort but the table is worthless. I haven't even been here 2 years and am around 85% which is at your 6 year point. Garbage in, garbage out...

Well the garbage came from your lakeside-graphics calculator. However, I do know that calculator only assumes hiring to cover the retirements each year so with Delta doing all of this front end hiring that certainly skews the numbers which I mentioned in my original post.

I did worst case scenarios on both sides. I ran Southwest at 1% growth even though we have experienced 7.3% growth this year and plans for 7.2% growth next year. With that kind of growth to possibly continue for the foreseeable future.

I see where you got your data. The calculator isn't "my" calculator or even the company's, I believe one of the guys on the MEC built it but that's not terribly relevant. I've found it is great for a snapshot that is 2 months old for discreet base seniority information but is unreliable for any kind of future predictions.

Did you account for any growth at DAL in your calculation? I was 2nd to last on the list when hired -- roughly #12,100, now our most jr guys are around 13,500 -- about 12% total growth over the last 2 years.

Methinks you meant "discrete." Unless it's really a hush-hush thing for you!:D

I think you are correct about FLL. They are building another finger of gates to your operation as we speak.

The construction is going fast. The negative for me is that they will probably move the employee lot off the airport again once the construction is complete!

I'm actually doing just that. It was good for a while. This 'job' has taught me that there are better dreams in life. imo
Sometimes you have to be there to realize it , though. Be thankful for what you got, I guess.

No consolation to the guys that won't be able to see it or those who will see it for just a short time due to bad dal scope.

I totally hear ya man. I always wanted to fly a tri-jet internationally for as long as I could remember and I was fortunate to have had the chance to fly an MD-11 for 8 months at an ACMI cargo company between getting out of the Air Force and getting hired at Southwest. I saw 5 continents and 30 countries in the matter of 5 months and while it was super cool at first there was not a moment that I wouldn't have rather been at home with my family on our boat. International wide body flying is cool, but in my opinion the novelty of everything eventually wears off and if it's something that takes you away from your family, friends, and hobbies it will always be a job. I do like the idea of the schedule that comes with Legacy widebody flying though.

International isn't the be all end all for everybody. I knew guys in my peer group that bid ER FO way back when, and couldn't wait to get off of it. HATED international. The OP has stated that he flew international prior to his SWA gig and the 'novelty wore off'. Not saying anything bad about your recommendation, but just realize that not everybody aspires to live on the backside of the clock and manage naps for a living.

That being said, a lot of pilots use JetBlue to commute to NY from Florida and love it. NY is much much easier from FL than ATL unless you are senior and can get the JS at .00000000001second past noon.

The OP actually sounds like he is thinking this thru.

I think you just answered your own question.

[QUOTE=FLY6584;2181689]I'm not sure if anyone is interested in seeing this, but I ran overall system seniority for a guy hired at Delta today vs a guy hired at Southwest 10 months ago. Both with approximately 33 years left of flying. I then compared that system seniority to what it took to hold each aircraft and seat in ATL compared to what it took to hold each seat in one of our junior bases (HOU) and senior bases (MCO) at Southwest.

I was surprised to see that narrowbody progression at Delta in ATL closely mirrors our career progression at one of our junior bases here at Southwest. It also appears that widebody flying will make up a small part of your career at Delta if you are unwilling to sit at the bottom of the list. Keep in mind this is only in ATL though. NYC would be totally different. And also keep in mind this assumes 1% growth per year at Southwest and obviously doesn't take into account another merger/acquisition. I also realize the Delta calculator doesn't take into account front end hiring and is based off hiring for retirements alone.

Hope this helps anyone else trying to figure out what to do!



There's a better website for calculating your potential career path at Delta but you have input your employee number. It was eye opening to see it's forecasts. It's based on current fleets, bases, position, and compares it to the current spread of where pilots are and their retirement schedule.
Here's a recap, if you have dreams of flying a wide body and are over the age of 35, your dream will be crushed here. Unless you have no need to hold a quality schedule, the vacation weeks you desire, and don't mind being junior reserve FO at age 43.
Example I'm 40 for DTW 777 FO, I can't hold it till 2023. DTW 777 CA, not until 2038!! And that's to be the plug. Meanwhile I can be the most junior DTW 717 CA by 2023 and bid in the top 25% by 2026.

So do I want to hold a crap schedule that may not get my days off with the 777? Or do I want to have strong bidding power, hold great vacation, as a Captain? To be honest a quality wide body Captain career doesn't exist here, unless you get hired in your 20's. Even then it will take a long time. Might as well just go to Emirates if you have no soul.

Granted I only spent one summer commuting to New York to fly international, but it sucked. My wife complained that I was constantly tired. Flying mainly domestic now, and it's nice not living in a fog.

IMHO Stick with SWA if it keeps you based near home.

https://www.ezopenboard.com/delta/tm...10085BB83C.gif

Here's DTW 777 FO
https://www.ezopenboard.com/delta/tm...10085BB83C.gif

DTW 717 CA
https://www.ezopenboard.com/delta/tm...10085BB83C.gif

Funny, but I have flown with guys with less than 2 years on the property. Unless of course the 7ER is not a widebody in your book in which case your post would be correct. :rolleyes:

For anyone considering joining Delta, no I wouldn't consider it a viable wide body career path. The 757 will be phased out in the next 10 years, replaced by 321 & 737-900. 767 flying will be replace with A330. I'd guess that most senior FO's on the 7ER will switch to the 330 forcing it to be a super senior aircraft. I've flown with too many right seat lifer's. I wouldn't recommend a new hire get on a fleet that's downsizing. They'll be stuck on the bottom as the senior pilots claw onto the plane their most comfortable with. Especially if they're switching from Boeing to Airbus. The senior pilots will have displacement rights if they wait to the bitter end of the fleet.

In the last two years the 7ER fleet was slammed with new hire training. I don't see a cycle like that ever happening again for that fleet.

In some bases it is, and in some bases it isn't. Seniority has a lot to do with it too. If you want weekends off and international trips, I can only tell you where not to go.