It seems crystal clear to me that they will not.

Says the guy at the top of the food chain.... and has been there for 17 years.

Then why was it a hard core, must have, key to "unlock the gains"?

I already posted the numbers and source document references here on APC. However, I'm not going to repeat them time after time because I do not at all think Delta will "immediately drop to 46.5% right off the bat."

First, this is a ratio. So you need "crystal clear" insight into the productivity of Air France, KLM and Alitalia to make your statement. Further, you must have a confidence in their ability to execute capacity control that I've not seen in the last 5 years of watching them.

The company's problems with compliance are three-fold:
(1) Network management runs Delta's capacity to maximize profit. Scope compliance is not a goal and barely on their radar. ALPA has been slowing moving, with prodding from folks like me, towards more effective proactive engagement with the company. We always have the grievance process and will enforce our contract. "Proactive engagement" has a bad name around here, politically (even though it is the best way to ensure compliance on the front end) and ALPA is a political animal.
(2) Delta has little influence (much less control) over AF/KLM/AZ in as tight a range as the pilot working agreement specifies.
(3) Air France/KLM are on the run from low-cost carriers and the ME3. In desperation, they've been trying to escape to the "white spots" on the ME3's route maps ... North and South America.

Ryanair leadership openly state that Air France/KLM are a dead man walking. We shall see, but IMHO they've got some real serious problems that they might not be able to deal with given the competitive landscape in Europe.

Pre-merger 2011 747 Capt rates < TA15 737 FO rates w/ profit sharing, or 76-5 FO rates clean (w/O PS). Or, anther way of looking at this is that your pay rates have increased by 73%, PLUS Profit Sharing, which should result in a more than 100% raise in 4 years over your pre-merger contract. I get the "I hate all things Delta" club but pick your battles man.

We don't need to say "NO" just to maintain our street cred while being paid less than just about everyone else in the industry.

No, I'm not uninformed. What you describe is still a violation of our contract. If you enter into a deal with JV partners and your contracted employees, it is on you to make sure you can meet your obligations. Having a 'rogue' JV partner add airplanes to the routes does not relieve them of the obligation to meet the contractual obligations they entered into with us.

I don't care if it was a good idea or bad idea to violate our contract in their mind. They did not come to us and ask us if it was ok. We have not been paid an adequate grievance for the violation. You cannot tell me how many jobs we did not gain because somebody's A380 was flying across the water without our pilots on board.

It's a contract or it is not a contract.

I believe you see it correctly.

Bucking bar points out some of the reasons the company was out of compliance. In addition we lost several high EASK flights for reasons beyond the control of Delta or AF. Kiev, Amman, Cairo, Istanbul were lost to wars, revolutions and terrorism.
Despite all that the company is on track to meet the 48.5% minimum in the current contract. Keep in mind that in terms of actual flying that gives us 55% of the block hours.
If I were a pilot with two years at Delta I would be far more concerned with the fact we have virtually no narrow body protections. We had a opportunity to make some solid gains however the union got cowed by social media and let that slip through their fingers. They felt and correctly so that the pilot group would perceive it as a loss. As the maddogs age combined with another economic downturn we may find we really rue that choice.

You can go on the DALPA website and read the JV grievance settlement. It lays out the job loss.