Only if Delta loses.

New hires don’t get flow.

Endeavor upgrade time and Delta flow
 

What is anticipated upgrade time at Endeavor? What about expected time on reserve? Are trips pretty commutable? Also clarification on the flow, are new hires excluded in the flow and only offered a guaranteed interview? or is it a true flow for new hires as well?

Thanks,

50/50...yes...if delta wins the grievance I see it being less than 8 years...but 8 would be absolutely worst case scenario

Right now I think it's just above 3 years. However that is definitely going to shrink in the next 6 months. With some factors playing in. New hires are excluded from the flow but get the dgi program. I honestly would expect some program for new hires to come out in the next year or 2 that's better than the dgi. For the most part yes trips are pretty commutable...unless you're commuting to cvg. Also depends where you live and you pick a base that has the most flight options. Well I've been on rsv for over a year and a half but that's a covid thing. With hiring going on it depends on the base and airframe. Could be anywhere to 4 months to a year. Hard to really tell right now. Waiting on the first months of classes to finish training. Expecting them to hit the line in August/September

Most junior upgrade awarded on the last vacancy was 3 years and 8 months with the company.

New hires are not part of the flow agreement to Delta. A new hire pilot would become DGI eligible after every flow eligible pilot had moved to Delta or bypassed. It is expected that at only 20 a month, it will take more than 5 years to flow every eligible Endeavor pilot to Delta. Then DGI eligible pilots would resume.

You're right, I was just thinking about the movement that will occur.

Upgrade times are going to shrink tremendously in the next 6 months, so hard to say, but anywhere between 20-30 months is a good estimate for a new hire.

Trips are decently commutable, except CVG, and DTW has been getting worse as well IMO. I’ve had a line for over a year and never had an uncommutable trip in DTW until this month. Next month is even worse as every trip is uncommutable on the front end. (And I have a very early flight in as well, but still can’t make it.)

The DGI is more likely an 80% chance than a 50/50, based on the most recent numbers, and if nothing changes between now and the time it comes back (probably 5-8 years to flow everyone currently here, depending on attrition to other airlines)

All that said, if we don’t have another major downturn in the next few years, I’d be surprised if the regionals as we know them will still exist. They will simply be unstaffable due to pilot shortage.

Does anyone know what aircraft type the last few classes have mostly received? Any idea what demand is looking like for the next few?

Training
 

Is anyone going through training now? Have a Nov class date and I’m anxiously awaiting my class date. I’d like to know more about the training schedule.