Current Reserve Times @ Endeavor
01-21-2024, 08:22 AM
#31
Line Holder
Joined APC: Apr 2023
Posts: 25
Originally Posted by RunswthScissors
Could a brand new FO go anywhere other than NYC after IOE? I'll do whatever I have to, just curious. Is new hire class seniority by age or SSN?
Thanks, Folks.
Thanks, Folks.
Sure, just depends where there are vacancies. CVG and DTW most common if something other than NYC is available.
It’s by SSN.
01-21-2024, 01:07 PM
#33
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Posts: 2,189
Originally Posted by LifetimeCFI
Still a pretty good outlook. You could hire every current active regional pilot in existence and it still would result in the big 4 being 3500 pilots in the hole..... not even accounting for annual growth of about 1.8k pilots per year (across the big 4).
People want to claim it's over, but we're largely just getting started.
People want to claim it's over, but we're largely just getting started.
01-21-2024, 01:36 PM
#34
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2023
Posts: 110
Originally Posted by PilotBases
I don't think it's over, but the hiring and movement of 2020-23 isn't the rule but the exception. Someone hired before COVID hit is easily 60-something percent at all 3 legacies. That level of movement will be hard to ever beat. Plug at DL tomorrow is 17,000, last pre COVID hire around 11,000. 2036 for that plug to hit #11k, at pure-65 retirements.
Retirements alone ~20k
3% growth ~1800 pilots per year across the big four
There's not enough pilots in the 121 world to cover that attrition/growth. Will we ever get there? No clue. But everyone should feel pretty good about how things are going.
Even delta who some say "you'll never crack 50%" at, you could retire top 10% if you got hired today at 32. It won't be the rocketships UA/AA are undergoing these next few years but it doesn't have to be for you to have an above-average career. Every time things even slow down an inch, people will claim it's over. Things are going to be rolling (in general, there will always be short term dips) for the foreseeable future, crystal ball caveats apply.
01-21-2024, 03:13 PM
#35
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2019
Posts: 127
Originally Posted by RunswthScissors
Could a brand new FO go anywhere other than NYC after IOE? I'll do whatever I have to, just curious. Is new hire class seniority by age or SSN?
Thanks, Folks.
Thanks, Folks.
Not much you can do. It looks like all new hires get NYC in class. From what I’ve heard on the line, it sounds like most only do a month or two and they are able to get out of NYC.
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