yeah. Three years of 10k plus hiring by the majors have induced a surge of people that the schools are trying to maintain. But long term, most of the major hiring will ultimately just replacement for retirees and incremental growth, although how much more growth there will be is a hard to define issue. Nor will the growth necessarily be uniform even if it occurs. Right now United is buying planes and hiring people in anticipation of a fairly massive expansion fueled - at least in part - by replacing RJ flying by 737/320 flying and increased international flying with 787/320XLR.

The extent to which that may stimulate demand versus just pull customers away from competitors has yet to be determined. But I wouldn’t count on seeing 10k+ annual hiring at the majors again any time soon.

 

Just rough numbers, 34,000 ALPA pilots in 1985.

3% growth would be 111,000 in 2025 roughly.

We have 100k part 121 US pilots today, which comes out to 2.73%.

Not bad. But there were definitely some highs and lows in there. Id also consider that airspace and slots are at a premium today. Mergers amongst the majors are largely done hopefully. Retirements plus 3% is a good long term healthy bet for good hiring based on historical trends, short of some boom or return of a flight engineer. But the market may also stagnate if there isnt an increase in efficiency in getting planes onto pavement faster.

 

FWIW, expect to see more than 500 pilots hired in 2026. That’s their official plan for the first half of the year. Depending on how the first two quarters and deliveries go, expect to see a good bit more. Potentially as high as 1200. Don’t plan your career moves on that. Just saying. Calling my shot here…

 

Let’s say Delta doubles the hiring to an even 1000. And let’s say they double the flow hiring - to 120.

Endeavor has 1600 pilots. At 120 pilots a year an Endeavour new hire would be looking at 1600/120 or roughly 14 or 15 years before they could flow to Delta. Of course, that isn’t reality. Some will never flow, while many others will depart for greener pastures - SWA, UA, AA, B6, or even a non-flow hire to Delta, long before 15 years are up. And when they do, that shortens the time to flow for those that aren’t going to get there anyway except by the flow. While the flow allows some who would otherwise never get there at all to get to Delta, the actual time for flowees (flow-ers?) to get there is far more dependent on the success of their more competitive brethren than it is their own efforts.

and understand this, flow is a mechanism to KEEP THE REGIONAL STAFFED, not to keep the Major staffed. Delta has far more applicants - well qualified applicants - from ALL the regionals and the military than it needs for its own hiring.

 

Maybe for the AA regionals. Flow only exists because some of Deltas 76 seat rjs are directly tied to the flow down that EDV took on as part of the deal. The flow down was originally at compass and Delta was going to lose scope for 35 or so 76 seaters if they couldn’t find somewhere to move it to.

 

ok. I didn’t dispute any of this. Just adding information.

 

In the last years of Compass, there was no flow - and even before that there was basically just a “guaranteed interview”. But Delta could have sent the aircraft to Skywest, Republic, or wherever.

Flow became a thing when it was necessary to keep regional FOs and especially CAs from jumping ship - same for the surge in DECs - back when regional aircraft were being parked for want of FOs with enough 121 time to upgrade coupled with losing CAs. But that was a queuing artifact caused by decades of pi$$-poor regional pay, the major early retirements and then the post COVID early rebound of flying. But that temporary dearth and the regional pay boost it caused stimulated an unsustainable increase in the number of new flying schools - especially with the new rules allowing rotary military pilots expedited ATPs.

Eventually like any blip in a supply line, career progression will ultimately be limited by its most limiting factor which for 121 flying has always been major hiring which is a function of retirements plus or minus either growth (think UA) or contraction (think NK).

The pilots at the majors will fight like crazy in their CBAs to avoid any regional expansion. Which means this becomes the limiting factor for career progression:


https://www.fapa.aero/pilot-hiring-history

Which is ultimately limited by retirements and growth (if any) and subject to the usual black swan events of war and economic turmoil, even legislative action (age 67?) or technology (single pilot 121?).

Don’t get me wrong, I love flying, and it can be a great career, but don’t assume recent history (post COVID) represents steady state reality. It doesn’t.

 

Yes, the flow UP was long finished, but the flow DOWN was still there. This is the specific language from the PWA.

Exception two: In the event the hiring or flow provisions of NWA LOA 2006-10 or LOA #9 cease to be available, either at the feeder carrier affiliate referenced in such LOAs or at another carrier, the number of permitted 76-seat aircraft in Section 1 B. 40. d. will be reduced by 35.

This is why the flow exists.

 

Yes to all that you said but mostly the flow exists to trick people into going to Endeavor and staying there with the illusion that they will flow in 24 months 😂😂 and then Daddy D fudges the numbers to turn it into a 10 year plus flow🤷‍♂️ . Most people aren’t going to stick around for that unless you’re a hard core Delta Hat lover.

 

the profit sharing is nice, too.