The 10,000 apps and each major right now are the same people waiting in line to be called. And whoever calls first they would be crazy not to go including FedEx and UPS. 6 majors divided by 10,000 apps is 1,700 pilots per major. Even 20,000 apps in the pool does even touch the need for pilots at a major in the future years ahead.

And don't forget. AA already asked for more Envoy pilots. Envoy said no.

The numbers I ran the other day showed that every current regional pilot could be at a major by 2025 just from retirements.

My Crystal Ball
 

I agree. With a few updated numbers from the rumor mill. What I have heard most frequently:

A few years ago, before the significant hiring at the majors started to kick in, all the majors had 10,000 - 13,000 unique applications on file.

Today AA has 3,000 - 7,000 applications.

Today SW has 3,000 applications. One would assume these are mostly duplicates of what AA has.

Have not heard any specific data points for Delta nor United. One post here said 'they had more that the 10,000 apps from a few years ago.' I have to discount that, I would be willing to bet they are more in line with AA and SW numbers.

There are 20,000 regional pilots. If one assumes the oft quoted 10% lifers, that means 18,000 would be candidates to hire, once they get sufficient hours, etc.

This year the 6 majors (including FedEx and UPS) plan to hire 4,000 pilots. Military hires have been running 1,000 per year. That means they will need to hire 3,000 from the regionals, etc.

If someone from is hired from other paths, the hiring will still need to backfill 3,000 a year into regionals, etc.

Right now there are some former pilots who got out of flying after 9/11/2001 that have other jobs. A number of those are starting to get back into flying. Soon, that well will run dry.

Further, if retirement age goes to 67, this hiring wave may shift to the right by something a bit less than 2 years. It does not go away. It does not get smaller.

As the hiring ramps up to 7,000 a year, with a continued hiring of 1,000 from the military; that means 6,000 from civilian sources. If, as a SWAG, 1,000 come from non regionals, that means hiring at regionals will be 5,000 per year.

18,000/5,000 = 3.6 years average, say 4 years. That would mean 2 years FO and 2 years CA. Or, some amount of shrinkage of regional pilots headcount, if regionals cannot keep up bringing people in.

In crystal ball land, a disaster like a repeat 9/11, growth at majors, internationals hiring expats, etc. etc. could have an effect.

Bottom line, regionals will feel an impossible situation trying to keep up, in just a few years. The majors will have to decide how they respond to keep seats in which their customers may fly.

50s get parked, and replaced with fewer 76s per day to a destination. 76s replaced with 100-120 seat planes just now starting deliveries. Some will be replaced with 737/A320s where this can be economical.

To get pilots, some of the larger regionals flying likely will need to be brought back into the majors to fly. Current pay for these planes at the majors range from 65%-90% of the pay for 737/A320s.

My crystal ball says 65% will be too low. Pay at the majors will settle out at 80%-90% of the pay for 737/A320s. Regionals will go out of business and mergers will take place. My projection is half. Regionals will have a lot fewer than 20,000 pilots by 2025. Regionals pay, while not the amount the majors pay, will not be too far behind, even for the much fewer 50 seat planes they will fly. At that point, my crystal ball turns foggy. I am below minimums and must divert to the alternate airport.

Wild Earth Shattering idea but what kind of QOL/"future" would a senior Captain have at Envoy. Lets say he wants to remain the last man standing. Pay/QOL etc

Good point. Some elect to be a lifer. Reasons may be quality of life, domiciles, position, age, etc.

Let's take the age, for example. Someone age 60 may very well stay for quality of life. Weekends off, prime vacation times, best everything. Going to a major as a FO they will retire as a FO with only moderately good schedules.

On the other hand, say someone who flows to AA at age 30 - 35 years will get on an escalator.

In 10 years, more than half of those above them will retire. (Sliceback has done excellent analysis of this in the major AA subforum and a thread of AA vs SW outside of the subforum.) In less than 10 years they will be a CA or a senior FO with weekend off, etc. In a few years more than a decade, they can hold a CA on a Group 4 pay aircraft (767/777/etc).

Big hirings are going to go on for quite a few years. Even some of the recently hired FO are 50+, so will continue the bow wave even further.

The choice for someone at 30-35 would be to stay as a regional senior CA for qol or take a hit for a few years, make double+ as a CA on a major, and spend 20 years of their career with a great qol on a narrow body as a senior CA or flying a G4 aircraft across the small or large pond as a CA, with associated great qol.

It all depends on a person's personal situation. A lot of factors come into play. Everyone has to make their own decision. And, as is always said, you will know for sure if you made the right decision the day after you retire. :)

I appreciate the great info so far. situation:

Age 50 at time of retirement from federal job, non-mil. I will retire in 5 years from now. Hopefully this is in the middle of the "dire straights" that AA is rumored to be facing due to mandatory retirements (year 2022). Unfortunately SWA is kinda going gangbusters now. Not sure if they will taper off.

Most entire career has been flying the King Air 350. 'nuff said. Will have federal pension with federal health care benefits in retirement. Pension will be approx $60K net, annually. No major debt (yes, home mortgage) and personal financial situation is fine. Any job with $50K annual salary after taxes will result in same income or possibly slight pay raise, in total cash to the bank, over my present full-time job.

Observation: To obtain "retiree pass benefits" at AA, one must have 10 years of service. Unless I missed something. This indeed is a goal as I have family all over the freaking country and will have two kids in college possibly on different coasts.

4 year degree, partial MBA completed (1/2 way thru) from an accredited university with a physical campus, Check Airman, Safety, etc experience. "Target" is AA and SWA, both Dallas HQ since I leave in the Dallas area. Loose medical, etc I can answer phones M-F at HQ.

6500 TT, 2500 Turbine PIC presently. TT Time not higher due to numerous "staff jobs" and expected "desk duties" when you work for Uncle Sam.

Gameplan is apply to Envoy, AA, SWA, and "do time" at Envoy while my app sits at AA and SWA. Worst case, i flow to AA via Envoy at age 55ish and do the next ten at AA. Better case, I get picked up after 2 years of 121 time and then AA or SWA. Ideal, super best case is I roll from this gig direct to AA or SWA but I recognize that may not be possible.

Have about 3 Captains at AA and SWA each who advised they will submit LOR's/try to help me, once I get closer to retirement. Everybody else has this too, so....

I have some back-up skills in my pocket to include project management, IT, data analysis (those visual presentations involving scatter plots and heat maps) that I can hopefully pay the rent with in the event nobody calls me and I need to eat.

Thank you again. Comments, ideas always welcome

** AARP applicant LOL

time to flow to AA - quicker in future ?
 

Not sure where you're getting 16 years for the flow? I flew with a PP CA this week who will go into the pool next month and he's been here 10 years.

*EDIT: MEC blast states most junior pilot selected is a 7/05 hire. Putting the flow at roughly 12 years +/- 1 month.*

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Sorry but the flow is only slowing down at Envoy. The flow doesn't get faster. It gets slower. I don't get why people think the flow will increase when it is clearly designed to slow down. 7-8 years will be your flow rate. This isn't counting attrition, AA not hiring in Dec or acts of Congress or God.

I clearly understand that the regional airlines are going to go through major changes in the next 2-5 years. I'm not smart enough to predict it. I am smart enough to do some division and multiplication and find out your flow rate will be slightly more trending to slightly less than 1% each month. Don't expect to flow to AA via Envoy and get flight benefits before retirement. Unless we get stapled to the bottom of AA which is more likely to happen than five year flow for you.

I stand corrected. I looked it up. First Protected Pilot was 8/2004 hire date. The 2001 hire date I recalled was at the end of 2016, still part of the tail end of the 824 group.

So few hires during the 'lost decade' after 9/11/2001, that by the 2nd month this has advanced 11 months, the 7/2005 hire date will go into the pool.

Thanks for the correction.