time to flow to AA - quicker in future ?
 

I am hearing that the AA "hiring floodgates" haven't even started yet. Reportedly in 2-3 years, AA is going to be in dire straights due to retirements.

With that said, will this result in a quicker Envoy flow to AA ? Aka from the current 5.5 years to a lesser amount of years ?

Especially if AA hands are "tied" due to contractual stuff and the required number of Envoy bodies in each new hire class ?

I don't see how flow speed cannot increase, of course I could be missing something.

Thank you

The current group of flows can be metered to 25/month. Envoy, according to Ric Wilson (the man in charge), will never send more than this contractual minimum.

So it doesn't matter how large the classes at AA become, ENY will still only send the minimum required.

Can Ric be overruled by Doug Parker ? "Send us more bodies" etc ?

Ric's comment should be taken in context. Management is likely metering because their business strategy is to pursue growth...they want a bigger piece of the AA regional pie. Actually, my guess is that they want to return to the glory days of American Eagle, Inc with 95-100% of AA feed. Realistic or not...this is their company. They are paid and receive bonuses based on the performance, size, and growth of Envoy. Giving away more pilots to AA directly contradicts that plan. Should Envoy ever stagnate (too many pilots on property), or Envoy executives are ordered to move more pilots to AA, then you will probably see the flow increase. It can increase. It's just that giving away pilots doesn't fit the current model.

To the OP...flow is likely higher than 5.5 years for a new hire today. There are people on property projected to flow in 5.5 years, but I believe they started a years or so ago when class sizes were smaller.

Thanks to both posters above. Good info.

This is correct. The guys hired a year ago hit it just right. Flow projections for someone hired today is 7 years.

AA floodgates opening doesn't mean a thing for you as an Envoy pilot. Amr needs you to fly their reginal feed, they have no interest in bringing you over any day sooner than they have to. What really matters for you is the flood gates opening at the other places....

American Airlines I'm sure still has plenty of applications on file. AA finding pilots for mainline won't be a problem anytime soon. Training might get backlogged a bit, but that is minor in the long term.

The problem AA WILL have is finding pilots in the long term for their regionals. Just as we told them in bankruptcy, they have needed to throw money and the promise of flow at pilots to get them in the door.

AAG will have a decision to make. When the supply of new hires slows applying to AAG regionals, they will either need to increase contractual flow to lower the flow time, or make the regionals the only way to get to AA eventually, (or both) if they want to keep the regionals operating. With its CS series order, to some extent Delta has already signaled they believe the regionals will shrink.

Until apps at the WO's starts to drop off, nothing will change.

At the Same Rate of Flow
 

Going from memory. The 824 group has just/is just finishing flowing.

The first of the Protected Pilots was hired in 2001. That means that person is flowing in 2017-2001= 16 years.

At the contractual minimum rate of flow, the Protected Pilots will finish flowing the end of 2019. This assumes no PP gets hired as OTS at AA or any other major (not a good assumption, but a conservative one).

There is a large gap in hiring for several years after 9/11/2001. Very few have DOH during that period.

The last of the PP flows has a DOH of 2011. That is projected to be in 2019, meaning the last person is projected to flow in 2019-2011= 8 years.

The sales job claim for new hires is 6 years. Could be, but even if it stays at 8 years, that is great compared to those who flowed over the last few years at age 50+.

Of course, all this is subject to no major external force that rocks the industry. It also assumes no major OTS hiring increase. (The first always is a possibility that would increase flow times. The second is very likely, given the retirement ramp ups at the 6 majors, as well as potential growth by them and demand for expats by foreign careers. These would all serve to decrease flow times.)

TransWorld summed it up very nicely and is pretty on track to what I have been thinking/hearing. At the end of the day, barring any outside disaster, this is great time to be in the industry.

One thing I wish more people would consider though is that AA isn't the end all be all, or in some cases not even the best final destination. There are so many options out there that pilots will take, all of which will affect the flow rate.

Some will choose the LLC route which will hire and fairly low numbers and start making six figures now. Others will hold out for AA, many will go to another major once the gates open.

We still haven't gotten to the point that the majors are desperate for pilots as they have lots of resumes on file and lots of senior guys/gals to get through. However, this won't last and I predict the times will really start to come down towards the end of 2019 beginning of 2020.

Don't get tunnel vision on AA and its flow unless that is all you ever want to do. If so, thats cool, just understand the safest bet is that flow rates will come down to right around 5-6 years.