Heard before the end of this month according to my know it all captain.:rolleyes:

Here is a counterpoint to my post:
https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/a...d744b36721.jpg

New Flow Realities
 

Read this new Biz Journal article about the new $45K HVA bonus. Is this false information being spread to/by the media regarding flow and growth?

https://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/...hoo&yptr=yahoo


“The company is also adding 54 Embraer 175 aircraft to its fleet, with options for up to 76 more.”

“Pilots can look forward to a “seamless flow-through” to Fort Worth-based parent company American Airlines (NYSE: AAL) in about six years, thanks to an agreement with the mainline, an Envoy news release states.”

You mean not everything in the media is true?! FAKE NEWS

Excellent. I was going to post here if you had not. Hiring of 920 for the year has been validated by at least a couple of trustworthy AA pilots as being the plan.

As I see it, 40 every 2 weeks is the most new hires the AA Schoolhouse can handle. The later part of the year this drops to 30. My guess is this gives them a little room to make up for a person who drops out here or there. (I also suspect there will be some additional training load after summer, if they stick to the plan of retiring the last of the MD-80s by the end of 2018.)

In a few years, the 920 hired in a year will be just short of what the mandatory retirements will be at AA. They will have to expand the Schoolhouse.

For reference, AA hires totaled:
2017 - 645
2016 - 519
2015 - 313
2014 - 500
2013 -20

It doesn’t matter. They’ll just keep metering flow. Even if AA is hiring 900 you won’t be able to go because you have to wait your turn. A Commutair new hire today has a better chance of making it to AA before an Envoy new hire. They’ll be hiring anyone qualified in a year or two.

In the previous years, the data did not support your statement. Very few OTS Civilians were hired.

But for 2018 I agree. With a lot more hiring, W.O. being metered, and there being a limited amount of OTS Military to be fought over, for the first time there will be a significant number of OTS Civilian.

This is true. And any extra hiring over the point where metering kicks in is lost future seniority for flows.

I am actively working to bypass the flow. It’s is a pipe dream at this point and only there for an absolute worst case scenario.

What's the DOH for flows right now?

02/06/06

.....

I came to Envoy for a few reasons. DFW base, equipment, AA affiliation/flow. That said, AA is not my end game, although that would be nice. When I hit the hiring minimums at the other majors you bet your ass my apps will be updated and all my relationships leveraged. Shoot, United is at 1000 hrs “fixed wing turbine” time right now for new FO hires. If nothing else I can look to walking on with AA in 6 yrs, longer than I’d like but it’s there. I’m too old to wait that long by choice.

When were you hired? Even if it was in the "magical hire window" of 2015, I don't think you are going to make it in 6 years. 7.5 maybe or 8.

Good idea though to try and bail for other options as soon as one opens. If you do make it through, your work rules and QOL may be worse than that of a Spirit or Jetblue pilot.

Oh please. There isn't a single pilot at JB, or Spirit that wouldn't take a staple to AA if offered.

Even at bare minimum and metered flow, those 2015 guys will be in class at AA slightly under 6 years from starting at Envoy.

Well, so much for 40 every class all year. Looks like only 24 in the first February class.

I think current new hires will never see a flow. Envoy and the other WO will probably merge and get taken in to AA in less time than the flow. Regionals will look totally different very shortly.

You may be right but even at Endeavor rates they’re saving 50% in labor rates on the stooges sitting on the pointed end.

“Hard to believe” (coming from a 1999 hire). Always count on something dumb to happen... the retire the 767’s early, A350’s dont come, ect.. all that effects hiring... hope your right but dont base your life on it..

At this point, there are just so many retirements on the horizon, I just don’t see anything short of something totally catastrophic slowing down hiring. Of course, something can always happen, but if I were a betting man I’d put my money on hiring staying steady. I hope I’m right too. Knocking on a big piece of wood right now!

Yep. At that rate, they will hire fewer in 2018 than in 2017. And that would barely handle mandatory retirements with nothing else.

So, what happened? There has to be a reason.

No idea. But this is nothing new.

You think the odds are likely AA will hire fewer in 2018 than in 2017? I don’t.

I’d be willing to guess something got jammed up in the Schoolhouse or in the hiring process. And someone in charge of hiring is not happy about it.

Looks another month and flow pushed back another month again...... rinse and repeat.

Are you sure there's only 24 total in the first class? Even if there are only that many, we are sending 25 total for FEB, 12 in the first class and 13 in the second. So if it's only 24 total in the first class, this is actually a good thing for Envoy.

Shhhh. You'll ruin their little pity party.

I didn't say that. But small term glitches in hiring/training have never been avoided. I would not be surprised to see 40 in the second Feb class.

As somebody else pointed out, as long as we send 25, this is actually a good thing. If they are going to meter anyway (and assuming we don't win the grievance over it, which maybe seems likely), then the ideal situation for envoy pilots would be AA hiring 50/month. Less than ideal is when they skip a whole month (like last October), and then have a huge month (like November, with 88, 25 of which were flows).

I'm not sure, somebody posted the breakdown in the AA class drops thread. I agree it is good.

Not sure what you mean.

I agree, there will be small short-term glitches. That is one of the reasons, I believe, the AA hiring plan shows a lesser number per month in the fall, that the first 8 or 9 months of the year. It gives them space to recover to meet their plan of 920 hires for 2018.

As you pointed out, last fall they skipped a whole month. The consensus seems to be it was because the Schoolhouse got jammed up with training to new aircraft as part of the Mad Dogs going to the desert the end of 2017.

With this year’s hire plan at 920 and last year’s actual at 645, the entire pipeline has had to be expanded. In a few years, even 920 will barely be enough to handle mandatory retirements. As you said, there will be short-term glitches along the way.

Latest revised hiring estimate publish with the 2017 hiring review was “at least 720 new pilots...” 417 will come from the flow and 303 OTS.

Hopefully it ends up being the 920.

When was that published? The American spreadsheet (it is inferred from hiring or training) posted here on the forums said 920, and showed the plan by month. It was dated Jan 16, 2018. That is the latest I have seen. A few weeks earlier a number around 720 was posted.

This was validated by at least two well respected people here as being authentic.

That number was reposted (920 or 925) by another well respected person on 1/31/2018.

This was what was posted on the RST American page today.

Hopefully it’s intentionally conservative, or an old projection...

And also this...

On 1/14/2018 aapilots said 730.

Two days later, on 1/16/2018, the spreadsheet (apparently from AA hiring or Schoolhouse) showed 40 a class, until fall, then it would then slow down a bit, with a total of 920.

It appears both classes in Jan were in line with the 920 plan. Then the first class in Feb was below even the 730 plan.

A pilot with a great reputation for data said he remembered earlier in Jan. AA was saying they planned on hiring 900 or 925 for 2018.

I would be inclined to believe the 920 as being a more reliable number.

If someone has any update in the last two weeks directly from Hiring or the Schoolhouse, I think we would both would welcome it.

I'm not sure an update from the schoolhouse will even be very accurate. Last year about this time they said 750-1000 for 2017, then someone posted 1000, then 700-800, etc. Then they hired 645 or whatever. There are so many factors determining this, and plans change constantly. Also, a lot of people have more than one offer at a time, and decide late.

I would think a spreadsheet showing a plan sent down to people in the Schoolhouse or Hiring would be more accurate and up to date than data published on the web site. That spreadsheet was posted here.

The person doing the web page has to get data from somewhere. It likely is something that has not been updated to what has been sent to the Schoolhouse or Hiring as of two weeks ago.

Of course, things can change. But there has to be a current plan. That is what we are discussing here.

As far as what people post here, without substantiation, I take it with a grain of salt. I even saw people post the plan was massive furloughs, and the world will end tomorrow. (Okay, I really don’t remember a post about the world ending tomorrow.)

One of the most active and trustworthy AA pilots on the AA forum just stated the hire plan is 950 for the year. This is according to the AA pilot recruiting department, as of this week.

Based on that, what people are seeing in the 700 pilot range on the aapilot webpage has been obsolete for several months and is incorrect according to the AA pilot recruiting department.

That's unfortunate for flows.

Why? Did I miss something or are you being sarcastic?