New Flow Realities
 

It has become apparent that the flow isn't going to be honored. This year we've seen hiring halts and maximum metering each month. All those "projections" used to sell new hires a 6 year ticket to AA are now looking like Monopoly money.

The seniority list that the union puts out several times a year is a really good indicator. Over the past two years, Pilot A has watched his "projected" flow date change further into the future with each publication. Last week in fact, a new list was published that essentially added an additional three months to everyone on the list. This happens regularly.

While technically not a violation, AA hired 84 in November. Envoy sent 25. If the contract was honored as written, 42 would have flowed by the close of business today. Instead, AA/Envoy chose to use the language allowing the company to send 25 per month only due to "operational necessity." It has even been stated by Envoy management that no more than 25 would flow per month in any circumstance.

With the indentured servitude one has to put in just to work at Envoy, at least if there was a light at the end of the tunnel, it might make sense to wait it out. Turns out that light was just a match the company lit and they keep walking backwards as you watch it get dim.

Envoy is very close to being in serious trouble, along with many other regionals. Forcing a new hire to upgrade before he even completes FO training is a solid statement that the company is in serious trouble trying to fill all the bodies needed to fly the airplanes and schedule AAG wants. It will be very interesting to see the new hire numbers next month now that the Endeavor TA is active.

It amazes me that they can claim operational necessity while we're expanding.

Doing the math it looks like the flow is on path slow down to 18 pilots or so a month once the senior groups of pilots clear out. Do the “projected flow date” estimates take that into account for new hires?

It should.


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Yes.......

All flow projections have always been based on flowing at the bare bones, metered amount.

If so, then the revisions were due to unforeseen circumstances. Like many of us have tirelessly been warning all along


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That latest seniority list had the most junior pilot "projected" to flow around 8 years and 2 months. That doesn't include new hires below this guy. The real number for a new hire is likely 8 years and 10 months or so. That's with ZERO hiccups.

Look at the "hiccups" this year.

September - very little AA hiring, less than 25 flow, I think it was 17
October - ZERO AA hiring, ZERO flow
November - 84 new hires, 25 flows
December - ZERO hiring, ZERO flow

I know the "projections" don't take into account the reduced and zero hiring months which continue to exacerbate the length of the flow for those on property now. If you are a 2006 or 2007 hire, you have a good chance of making it over to AA in the next 3+ years or so. Beyond that, I say all bets are off.

While I agree metering is BS! Remember the union projections also don’t take into account pilots leaving for other carriers over the last year my flow projection has moved both ways and is essentially back where it was. Now as you move up the list a smaller percentage of pilots leaving will be senior to you.

OAL attrition isn’t very reliable because it solely depends on the seniority of the pilot. But I do agree the more senior you get the less likely OAL attrition will help.


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What stops an Envoy pilot from getting on with AAL before their 'flow date'?

Nothing.

Half of each new hire class is flows from Envoy/PSA/PDT. Street hire slots are very competitive. There are Envoy street hires from time to time.

Take it with a grain of salt, but chief pilot came in the other day and told us they’re losing 25 to AA and 25 to other mainlines. Hiring 800 a year and losing 600 a year total.

Take it for what it’s worth but sounded reasonable to me.

And when are they going to make the next selection of flow throughs?

3 were Envoy. 6 Piedmont. 8 PSA.

Are these the off the street hire numbers?

That makes 39/84 for the month. Not quite half - the point being that it's possible to get street hired at AA, but it is very competitive. The flow does not prevent street hires. It is doable though, it seems that we have a couple hired each month.

Flows based on the numbers.

Envoy only sent 25 flow-thrus for November.

I think his point was WO sent that many, leaving more than 50% of the class for street hires.

No. These were flows from last AA class.

Do you know what those numbers are out of, how many total in class?

What're some things that make one competitive? Obviously you need the hours...then they look at what? Degree? No failures? Recommendations? What sort of extra curriculars make someone stand out?

There were two classes of 42 in November. Envoy sent 22 in the first class, and the rest outlined above in class 2.

Yes. Thanks.

Line Check Airman, well networked and community/ special interest group involvement has been the trend amongst the purely civilian pilots I’ve seen as OTS hires at AA in the last year.

Just curious why an ex-Eagle Allegiant pilot cares so much about the flow?

Stockholm syndrome?

I know a Spirit pilot who regrets leaving PDT now that they’d be flowing to AA shortly had they stayed in place instead of switching to another regional and then going to Spirit.

Because he got fired from Eagle and now he has to try make himself feel better and discredit the flow as much as he can in a sad attempt to convince himself that the flow would not have gotten him to a legacy quicker than he'll be able to without it.

Perhaps. He likes to brag about how "much" he makes as a year 2 captain though so it seems like he really enjoys Allegiant.

I've heard there were tears. Small reward for PM evidence.

There has been speculation here for over 2 years as to who I am and so far everybody has been wrong. But, if you like that scenario by all means, go with it. Whatever makes you feel better.

As to why I'm here as an Allegiant guy bashing the flow, why is a former company collaborator and borderline traitor who leveraged ALPA connections to get to UA here as well?

I don't really have to discredit the flow much. It speaks for itself. I just shine a light on it. I've got my stuff in at the legacies but if I get "stuck" here at Allegiant for life, I'm pretty happy living in base.

Haha. Deflect, that's fine.

Uh no. If you were fine, you wouldn't feel the need to shine a light in anything. Like you said, the realities speak for themselves. Only a sad, bitter person would continue to point them out.

I don’t have a problem with anyone speaking the truth. If you don’t like the truth then fix it. Don’t just try and cover it up like collaborators. http://www.collaborativelabor.com

You mean the guys that got you the flow in the first place?

-to be clear, not me. I just sent emails.

Sure, whatever you say. I can think of another term to describe your actions. Treason.

The flow is tepid and sputtering. 217 have flowed YTD and that is the final number as there are no classes in December. A far cry from the 450/year the company cheerleaders were trumpeting here a year and a half to a couple of years ago. 300 is supposed to the bare bones minimum number regardless after the 40th 175 showed up.

Somehow, the company has lowered those expectations so that the pilot ranks are ecstatic when just 25/month flow. 217 divided by 11 months is less than 20/month.

How did you get to United with your low experience level and lack of PIC again?

A lot of hard work. Need some help with your application?

Have a bud that left eagle a couple of months ago for delta with ZERO pic. It can be done if you're squared away, likeable, and do some networking.