Right now, Jr FO hard line holder in MIA is low 1800's in seniority. That's a little over 2 years on property.

Assuming they offer both ORD & DFW 175 in class & I get to choose, which would be the shortest reserve?

Again, no real recent data points to go off of. When there were regular new hire classes it was taking from two to four months. It would vary based on whether they were sending people to only one base or the other.

Traditionally DFW is senior to ORD so you'd get off RSV sooner in ORD. However, AA responded to COVID by massively increasing our presence in DFW and halving it in ORD so things are askew right now.

Has AA started the major hiring they said they needed to do, thus flowing at least some people out of Envoy, or is it all still just a plan? Some airlines have classes filled through early 2022, I assume this isn't the case at Envoy yet because AA doesn't know what they're doing yet?

Yes, AA has two classes of 40 in September and there are 20 flows from Envoy that will be in the second September class. AA will have two classes a month of 45 (90 total per month) in October through December and Envoy will have 20 flows in class each month. How the flows will be distributed each month hasn’t been released yet.

Flows aren’t the only people to leave Envoy. August had almost 60 resignations, no flows. Class sizes at Envoy have been limited by management displacing all the 145 sim instructors back to the line and almost all of them chose to go to the 175 when they did. They have been struggling to get enough instructors since then.

I see. Does Envoy have a pipeline of many cadets that will be filling classes through 2022, or do you think eventually it might get to the point where the prior 121 pilots will be getting first pick on base and equipment in classes by this time in 2022? Assuming we don't have another major economic collapse of course.

As long as there are cadets, 121 won’t be getting first pick. Again, assuming, your choice of word, not mine, that there are no other changes in the economy, by this time next year the pool of new hires should have a pretty even distribution of those in each class with a few cadets, a few prior 121 and a few that fit in the “other” category. Last I saw someone said they were offered a class about two months out. I think the last class only had new hires that were cadets. You can scan the previous posts to see what people said about themselves, interview and class dates, etc, but IIR, there were some that were not cadets being offered classes. The pipeline is certainly not full of cadets that will fill classes very far out. Get a hold of a recruiter and ask the questions directly to them. Always consider your source of information, whether a recruiter or an anonymous web forum.

If you are prior 121, why come to Envoy and why wait? You will be abused while on reserve of either plane.

I got out of 121/flying when covid started. Want to come back but I live in Florida and would want to be able to hold MIA pretty quickly so I'd at least have the QOL of being able to drive to work, reserve or not, and be home when my trip is done. Based on reading this forum, that wouldn't happen if I got the 145 for a very long time, because even if you upgrade from the 145 to the 175, MIA is senior for CAs, while it seems possible to spend a short time in ORD or to get MIA right away if you get the 175 as a new hire FO. So it's a night and day difference for what I'd want out of life. I'd be fine being an FO till I could hold MIA CA or flowed to AA if I had the QOL of living in Florida with a base in Florida and no commuting. Besides Envoy I was interested in Breeze, but do not agree with their covid vaccination mandate, and so far AA has said they do not plan to mandate what kind of medical treatments employees should subject themselves to (my opinion, not trying to get political), so that's a plus in my view. When I started at my first regional in 2016, just about any regional would hire you as long as you didn't completely bomb the interview or show yourself to be an obvious dumbass, and it was easy to tell where you'd end up based. From the looks of it, it seems like there is still a lot of uncertainty, and hiring is only starting to ramp up, so I rather wait and see if the economy holds up well into 2022 and it possibly becomes easier to tell what you'll get out of class as it was a couple years back. Like you or someone mentioned in an earlier post, all the data that could be used to predict where you'd end up or how long it would take to hold a base got invalidated in 2020. So based on that, the only options as of now are to jump in and hope for the best, or wait a while and see where things settle and if movement actually returns and becomes consistent the way it's predicted to.

Understandable. But unfortunately, even before COVID, classes were not predictable. They could be sending all 175 to DFW one class and then to ORD the next class. But more specifically if you want MIA, you don’t want the 145. Out of the blue, there was one class with nothing but 145s. A bunch of disappointed and bewildered cadets. They may have a class heavy on 175s with few 145s, or the other way around. Past performance just isn’t always an indicator of the future.