You weren't on property to begin with on 12/10/18 when the email went out I'm pretty sure. It was 4.5 years after double checking. Still a 2016 hire in Aug of 2020.
Not saying it's a bad thing, just they need to be held accountable for their predictions. Talk is cheap, I need to see results though.

We need more pilots on reserve? 0 availability everyday. Can’t drop trips, can’t trade.

Yes I was. You saying 3.5 years was not correct. The 4.5 years seems pretty realistic, give or take a few months. Would you not agree with that?

That's a 6 or 7 month acceleration of flow. So no I don't. If they make changes to keep the entire list flowing At same rate sure. But I don't see that change coming. First 2016 hire shown as Feb 2021 flow per union list

Retirements alone will drop that by about 2 months, so Dec 2020.

What retirements?

Scratch that, I was counting the lifers too. Need to improve my excel algo :)

Talk to a captain who has been here 20 years or more and get an idea of the company’s record on flow predictions.

Yep. They laugh when people complain about a 6 year flow and sub-2 year upgrade.

You know what's great about the flow?
Not a single one of those 20 year captains are here because they can't move on. There's plenty of lifers-against-their-own-will at other regionals though.

Predictions go out the window when things like 9/11 happen. How exactly are you preparing for that?
The "best" regionals today used to be the worst only a few years ago. And if something like 9/11 was to happen again, there will be no hiring/movement to any of the majors. And if you think Republic/Endeavor will keep their pay and work rules through those times, well, would you be interested in a bridge I've got to sell...?

You already buy that bridge from management. And wouldn't you rather have the work rules and pay rates to lose than to never have them?