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Old 07-08-2019, 11:59 AM
  #11  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: May 2017
Position: 175 CA
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Originally Posted by dera View Post
"Quite possibly". You seriously are predicting reserve times 2 years in advance based on seasonal shifts in flying? Fact is: In July, there is no FO seat with more than 2 years of reserve.

You did. Let me refresh your memory.



Or are you seriously comparing FO to CA reserve times?
You're making things up as usual. I said status. Not "FO STATUS". There are several regionals where CA RSV is not 2 years.

I know who dera is, and he's surprisingly not management. A DFW 175 FO hired in December, listening to him in person rivals the nonsense he posts on the internet.
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:00 PM
  #12  
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Originally Posted by Cyio View Post
There are seats closing in on that number and while I know it suits your agenda, it really isn’t fair to list those times as fact due to the bloat in lines this time of year.

It is not uncommon and has happened in the past that people will grab a line during the summer months only to fall back onto reserve when the lines get cut.

Once again your facts are true, but only under very specific circumstances and at the right times. They however may not be indicative of long term trends.

Anyway, for the OP, see my post above and you will do fine. If you have other options, I would consider them first unless you have the right circumstances to make coming here worthwhile.
That was a data point and actually answered the question OP asked. Facts have no agendas. If the worst reserve time would have been 3 years, I still would have posted it.

Fact is: FO reserve time has not been 2 years in any seat during 2019.

I hope no-one thinks a snapshot from current month is indicative of future trends.
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Old 07-08-2019, 01:55 PM
  #13  
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Originally Posted by dera View Post
That was a data point and actually answered the question OP asked. Facts have no agendas. If the worst reserve time would have been 3 years, I still would have posted it.

Fact is: FO reserve time has not been 2 years in any seat during 2019.

I hope no-one thinks a snapshot from current month is indicative of future trends.
Sooooo did you read my entire post?
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Old 07-08-2019, 05:24 PM
  #14  
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Originally Posted by Crimson37Roger View Post
Fact is: reserve times right now do not matter to somebody getting hired right now. When I got hired, reserve times at my base and equipment were the shortest in the system. I will probably not see a line until next year unless I go to a different base.
Similar situation here. DFW 145 - latest interactive seniority list projects that even next May I will still not be holding a line. If I get a line in DFW next June, that would be 21 months on reserve. So not quite 2 years, but we're getting awful close.
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Old 07-08-2019, 05:53 PM
  #15  
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Originally Posted by Crimson5 View Post
Similar situation here. DFW 145 - latest interactive seniority list projects that even next May I will still not be holding a line. If I get a line in DFW next June, that would be 21 months on reserve. So not quite 2 years, but we're getting awful close.
You know the interactive list projections don't actually work, right? You'll have a bunch of people senior to you bidding reserve, and that throws it out of line. According to that list, I could hold a line in ORD 175 (I can't) but not at DFW (I can).

That part of the interactive list is worthless really.
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Old 07-08-2019, 05:58 PM
  #16  
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Originally Posted by dera View Post
You know the interactive list projections don't actually work, right? You'll have a bunch of people senior to you bidding reserve, and that throws it out of line. According to that list, I could hold a line in ORD 175 (I can't) but not at DFW (I can).

That part of the interactive list is worthless really.
Been accurate for me so far. Shows I can hold a line in ORD (I can) and I’m on reserve everywhere else (also true). The only thing I’ve found inaccurate with it was I could have held a line 1 month sooner than it projected in ORD.
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Old 07-08-2019, 06:01 PM
  #17  
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Originally Posted by dera View Post
You know the interactive list projections don't actually work, right? You'll have a bunch of people senior to you bidding reserve, and that throws it out of line. According to that list, I could hold a line in ORD 175 (I can't) but not at DFW (I can).

That part of the interactive list is worthless really.
If it’s screwed up because it doesn’t take into consideration the fact that people above you bid reserve, shouldn’t it show reserve times later than possible and not sooner? If somebody at ORD bids reserve, that increases your chances of holding a line.
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Old 07-08-2019, 06:02 PM
  #18  
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Originally Posted by Crimson5 View Post
Been accurate for me so far. Shows I can hold a line in ORD (I can) and I’m on reserve everywhere else (also true). The only thing I’ve found inaccurate with it was I could have held a line 1 month sooner than it projected in ORD.
It's not accurate. See how far you are from the junior lineholder, and compare it to the seniority list. It's off by a lot. It's the worst case scenario, which is not realistic. You'll always have people bidding reserve who are senior to you.
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Old 07-08-2019, 06:04 PM
  #19  
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Originally Posted by dera View Post
You know the interactive list projections don't actually work, right? You'll have a bunch of people senior to you bidding reserve, and that throws it out of line. According to that list, I could hold a line in ORD 175 (I can't) but not at DFW (I can).

That part of the interactive list is worthless really.
It is a tool. Is it completely accurate, no. It is only as accurate as the information put in. Yes, part of that can’t take into account what people actually choose to bid. It also uses company projections on lines and the flow plan. All of those are subject to change and error. But it does give an idea of trends and a way to visualize the pieces of the puzzle.
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Old 07-08-2019, 06:06 PM
  #20  
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Originally Posted by Crimson37Roger View Post
If it’s screwed up because it doesn’t take into consideration the fact that people above you bid reserve, shouldn’t it show reserve times later than possible and not sooner? If somebody at ORD bids reserve, that increases your chances of holding a line.
?

When people senior to you bid reserve, you will hold a line faster.
The interactive seniority list shows the worst possible case.
The number of hard lines also hasn't been updated.

That calculator really isn't worth much.
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