How is it not? What would the flow time be for a new hire?

Realistically, assuming no changes in the contract, 6.5-7.5 years.

Show the math, taking out the fact of attrition since after about two years here, it has very little effect on your seniority.

The majority of our attrition happens early in the list. If you are just “hoping” that it’s that time frame I would agree, however to state it so confidently requires you to prove the logic.

I am genuinely interested.

The 9.3 years assumes no non-flow attrition but also assumes American takes the max from Envoy every single month*. There are months from time to time where American doesn't hire anyone so no flow at all for those months so that needs to be considered. Some like to figure the non-flow attrition like it comes off the top of the list but it doesn't. Most of those are recent hires that either just need to get current to get hired elsewhere, or wash out, or decide this life isn't for them, or whatever. The reality is that most guys that need real time here to be competitive elsewhere mostly just wait for flow. The result is very little of the non-flow attrition will effect your projected flow day and is generally a wash when you figure it against the non-flow months.

There is a lot of speculation that hiring will pick up and more people will not simply wait for flow given how the flow time is getting longer now. However, that's speculation. I do think there's SOME truth to that and flow time will be less than the union projection for someone hired today but I don't think it will be by a lot. My GUESS is around 8 years. It's really difficult to make sensible math out if it and get it much below that though. The 6 year projection by the company comes off like a straight up lie.



*There was a recent LOA that increases the max flow for a small group of pilots per month which will effect everyone downhill from that group by about 3.5 months. The latest interactive seniority list didn't update that part of the union projection for some reason so the projection should be 9 years instead of 9.3.

Would be nice if they update the list to reflect the most recent agreement

What is everyone's beef, flow will be between 7-9 years if there is no outside attrition. The outside attrition is averaging 20 per month. Run the numbers yourself and stop beotching.
Or go complain to mgt and recruiting dept. Union is not required to show you your flow date, mgt is but they wont.

That is the whole beef. Envoy has, and continues to, advertise a 5 to 5 1/2 year flow. The union’s numbers are a best outside estimate based on language that comes from the contract and its amendments. Envoy’s numbers come from unicorns and pixie dust. In the absence of any supporting evidence, the numbers from Envoy are more unsubstantiated lies and propaganda.

They told the last INDOC class 6 years and historically their numbers have been spot on and the union had been “worst causing it”

Historically meaning the past <5 years? before that you were looking at a 18-30 year flow so that doesn't mean much

And that's why people keep coming here for flow. People will believe what they want to hear.