Attrition
 

Union is seeing a uptick in attrition!

Great Times!

Was there an email sent out?

From where in the seniority list though? Less than DECS #1500?

Seniority #1000 moved up 44 spots in the past 30 days. So yes.
New hire moved up 58 spots. Most attrition happens in the sub-1500 list.

PM sent to ya

Between the June update and the Dec update, I moved up just over 200#. So that is about 35/month. Mostly flows, but it is good to see people getting off at other exits.

I was actually surprised at my new number and I am not new to the airline. If it keeps at this rate the flow will blow ALPA's projections away.

This is what they’re counting on to make the flow stay under 6 years.

I said previously that based upon the increased big six and LCC hiring starting in 2020 that their projection - while inaccurate - probably won’t be far off.

I backed their claims in 2014-2015 of a 5.5-6 year flow because the math supported it. They just recently flowed the 2,000th pilot and it happened in under 6 years. I took a lot of heat from guys on here, talkairline and other places for being their “water boy” All I can say is I’ve always spoken the truth, even when it wasn’t always popular to do so. In my opinion, their claims of a 5.5-6 year flow won’t be that far off. Predicated upon no significant industry disasters, wars and such.

That said, I think the new metric that is going to make that flow rate attainable is a different metric than the one to date. Previously Envoy got 50% of all new hire slots. In practice it often got over 60%. Currently Envoy is getting 35% of all new hire slots. So, how can the flow possibly stay at 5.5-6 years?

The answer is obvious, the attrition will increase as flow becomes less and less important. Pilots putting the effort in to leave will be gone to a major/LCC/ACMI long long before ever waiting to flow. The pilot shortage attrition is what will keep the flow time short.

If you are looking at the DECS numbers, your actual number is lower than that.
DECS runs months behind, and there was some good attrition in November and so far in December.

Are you a line holding captain? There is still very little attrition besides flow once someone holds a line as captain. Most attrition is still FOs and non-line holding captains. In other words, the first two and a half to three years.

I am. Still was surprised how much my number went down.

This is what I'm seeing too... mostly just flow movement that is. It would be nice if we got another union seniority list update. It's much easier to see the what and the where with that than just looking how your own number moves in DECS.

44 people left in the last month with a 3-digit seniority number. So almost 1 pilot for each flow went elsewhere.
Don't look at the DECS number. It doesn't really mean a thing.

Anybody else can take over and update the alpa seniority list?

I know it has been discussed and several people have offered to do it but as far as I know it still sits idle.

Shame really as it was really useful.

That’s actually really surprising and good.

I not really sure how you can say DECS number means nothing. I agree it may not be a complete picture. What is your source for number of people that left and their seniority number?

I am just under 1000 in DECS and changed 32. Not a lot more than flow.

The whole list from that time hasn't flown over yet.... I think that claim was made in 2015-2016 still flowing 2011 hires.

Where does the author of the interactive seniority list get his data? Same source. It ain't hard.

DECS numbers don't mean much. Why would they? People who quit 2 months ago are still in DECS.

New hire moved up 58 spots in the past 30 days. #1000 seniority moved up 44 spots. #80 seniority moved up 3 spots.
That's your attrition Nov-Dec.

So if people who quit 2 months ago are still in DECs, then how many of those 58 spots can just be attributed to cleaning up the list? 44 numbers north of #1000 are almost all flow and retirement. I haven't been seeing flow announcements recently, so I don't know how many flowed in each class. Were there 2 or 3 flow classes captured in this 30 day seniority adjustment? I haven't heard of any major developments that increased it.

3 in the double digits were probably retirements. That just reminds me to raise a glass for those careers wasted at The Envoy.

So, between #1000 and the bottom of the list, there were 14 spots. I know a couple that went to bigger and better places. A couple more probably just went to other places. I also know a couple who were told not to come back.

I appreciate your enthusiasm. GTFO.

I understand what you mean about the DECS number being a bit inflated. But I was looking at the difference between my current number and my previous number. Assuming there was the same amount of bloat in each number (and if anything, there would be less bloat on the later figure), there wasn't that much more change than flow. Downside of advancing seniority, the movement gets slower the closer you get.

I'm not sure if you understand what I was saying.

In the past 30 days, 44 people left who were senior to seniority number 1000.

There were 2 retirements, and 1 flew west. This has nothing to do with DECS.

No. That's not how this works. DECS number is off by whatever. It does not mean a thing. Flow plan is accurate the day it is published.

Your last DECS run might have had 3 months of "ghosts", and this one only 2. DECS number means nothing.

Sooo, you're saying the amount that DECS is off from the previous number to the amount DECS is off from the current number is wildly different then?

Flow plan is the accurate source, not DECS.

DECS is whatever. Who cares about those numbers. Literally nothing is done based on them. Pay bands, flow dates etc are based on actual, not DECS, seniority numbers.

Hard fact:
From 15th of November to 13th of December, #1024 moved to #980. That is 44 numbers, in just under a month.

Cool. I m senior to that. Probably why I m seeing smaller difference.

Very likely. If you tell me your seniority number-ish, I'd be happy to tell you how much you moved this time round.

That date range should include an AA class on November 18th and December 2nd. How many flows were in those two classes? The flows are not always equally divided between classes.

Attrition needs to be averaged over a greater timeframe to give a better trend.

Just curious, how many of you folks on this thread are recruiters?

Classes are full (yes 20-30 is what they want, remember the 2016-2017 hiring wave with classes of 30-60, training was backed up, people sat in no mans land on RSV for months, new FO’s were having to get extensions because they couldn’t even consolidate their 100 hours), recruiters aren’t wasting their time on APC... They’re too busy flying the 175 into Riddle, Purdue, etc. That’s where recruitment happens, not here.

Here the actual attrition numbers:

Lets compare flow plan 19-13 dated OCT 15 2019 and flow plan 19-15 dated DEC 13 2019. Thats about 2 months between each.

Junior NFE went from 2389 to 2293
Junior DCL went from 1185 to 1108
A random pilot OCL sub 1000s went from 792 to 721.

A new hire moved up 96 numbers in 2 months.
A junior DCL moved up 77 numbers in 2 months
A senior OCL moved up 71 numbers in 2 months

the company sent to AA 58 pilots in 2 months via the flow.

Even the senior OCL had 13 people senior to him/her leave outside the flow in this 2 month period.

I'm guessing the two retirements mentioned earlier were lifers which had no effect on flow so it's really 11 over two months (and those two retirements mentioned were just for the one month, they're may be more to be considered), or about 5.5/mo over the two month period. I think that's pretty good but it will take nearly four straight months of that to effect the month you flow if you are past your first 3 years.

It remains to be seen if this will be sustained though. I have to wonder if the AIP fiasco over the summer caused a lot of lazy pilots to update their apps triggering interviews in the fall.

I think we will see a lot more attrition in the sub-1000 seniority list. They have been here for 2.5-3 years and are now starting to be competitive elsewhere.

I ran some rough numbers, and the most attrition seems to happen between 500 and 1200.

Sounds like company math. Invisible magic attrition. Dude above literally did the math to prove the opposite. Also, since I have been here about 3 years, how please enlighten me on how competitive I am. And not at Frontier, Atlas, etc. With less 2500TT, I can’t even put in an app at Southwest until the end of the month. If recruiting doesn’t have you on payroll yet then they are really missing out.

You're struggling with your reading comprehension. I said "starting to be competitive".
You're way below your peers with your flight time, just FYI.
And the dude above literally just proved what I said.
The new hire moved up 38 spots plus 58 for flow.
The 1000 seniority DCL went up 19 spots plus flow.
So you had the same number of pilots quit/leave with 0-1000 as 1000-2300. I'm not sure why you call this "invisible magic attrition", when that's exactly what numbers are telling you.

Not I.

10/char

I actually think Dera is spot on in this case. As for you not being able to get hired at United/Delta or southwest surely doesn’t mean everyone with apps out has them as their destination.

I know several people who are leaving for LCC’s and are happy to do it. Your idea of an endgame doesn’t mean that everyone’s will be the same.

What’s the seniority for a composite line on OCL and DCL right now?

5yr flow according to Pedro
 

Envoy Air, based in Irving, is the carrier’s largest subsidiary and will send more than 300 pilots to American this year. Envoy’s chief executive, Pedro Fábregas, is proud of the constant flow of pilots that come through his airline and make their way to American.

“Pilots come to work for me because in five years, they’re going to be pilots at American,” Fábregas told the Dallas Business Journal in October. “We hire the best of the best. And if American wants to hire the best of the best from me? That’s good. That’s the way it works.”

Despite the constant flow of pilots to the mainline carrier and other regional carriers feeling the pressure from the shortage, Fábregas said Envoy doesn’t have a pilot shortage. There was softness back in 2015 but for the last couple of years, “the classes are full,” he said.