Union is seeing a uptick in attrition!

Great Times!

 

Was there an email sent out?

 

From where in the seniority list though? Less than DECS #1500?

 

Seniority #1000 moved up 44 spots in the past 30 days. So yes.
New hire moved up 58 spots. Most attrition happens in the sub-1500 list.

 

PM sent to ya

 

Between the June update and the Dec update, I moved up just over 200#. So that is about 35/month. Mostly flows, but it is good to see people getting off at other exits.

 

I was actually surprised at my new number and I am not new to the airline. If it keeps at this rate the flow will blow ALPA's projections away.

 

This is what they’re counting on to make the flow stay under 6 years.

I said previously that based upon the increased big six and LCC hiring starting in 2020 that their projection - while inaccurate - probably won’t be far off.

I backed their claims in 2014-2015 of a 5.5-6 year flow because the math supported it. They just recently flowed the 2,000th pilot and it happened in under 6 years. I took a lot of heat from guys on here, talkairline and other places for being their “water boy” All I can say is I’ve always spoken the truth, even when it wasn’t always popular to do so. In my opinion, their claims of a 5.5-6 year flow won’t be that far off. Predicated upon no significant industry disasters, wars and such.

That said, I think the new metric that is going to make that flow rate attainable is a different metric than the one to date. Previously Envoy got 50% of all new hire slots. In practice it often got over 60%. Currently Envoy is getting 35% of all new hire slots. So, how can the flow possibly stay at 5.5-6 years?

The answer is obvious, the attrition will increase as flow becomes less and less important. Pilots putting the effort in to leave will be gone to a major/LCC/ACMI long long before ever waiting to flow. The pilot shortage attrition is what will keep the flow time short.

 

If you are looking at the DECS numbers, your actual number is lower than that.
DECS runs months behind, and there was some good attrition in November and so far in December.

 

Are you a line holding captain? There is still very little attrition besides flow once someone holds a line as captain. Most attrition is still FOs and non-line holding captains. In other words, the first two and a half to three years.