2020 Rumor Predictions
 

Prediction time: what do YOU think will happen at Envoy in 2020?

PBS
12 hour call out
long call
4:12 min day credit

Odds: likely if we implement PBS as this system has allowed other regionals to incorporate such rules.


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Mass hiring just like we had in late 2016 and 2017 since all of those folks on the 145 will be upgrading along side with attrition. Forced upgrades again...

AAG acquires Compass from under TSH and adds them to the list of wholly owneds. With that comes flow based on longevity, and Frontier flow rights are grandfathered in for current CPZ pilots on property.


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No
 

Unfortunately your guess is a bit too optimistic. AAG is not interested in adding other regionals at this time from what I have heard. At the most I would expect CP pilots to be stabled onto Gojet or TSA. Some will say AA is in the works of brining CP 175 back in house however, not necessarily an LAX base though.

I think 2020 is going to be the year that is going to blow the lid off of the hiring uptick at the majors. We may get a look at how exposed and vulnerable the regionals are. If you go look at what all the U.S. major carriers are publicly putting out for recruiting goals in 2020, there’s easily north of 6,000 pilots getting hired this upcoming year.

That said, I think Envoy is going to see some crazy attrition. There’s a few captains are ‘AA or die,’ but most are vying for UAL & DAL — even those close to their flow dates. UAL+DAL are hiring 2,500ish in 2020. You have quite a few that are hoping for Southwest, FedEx, or UPS. There are captains with 2 or more years from flow leaving for Spirit and JetBlue. Senior FOs and junior captains are going to Frontier and Allegiant. You even have the fabled ‘flow jumpers’ making it to AA. All these companies are hiring and the regionals are about to take a hit to staffing. The regionals have lifers and unhireables, the military can only export so many competitively qualified pilots, not all corporate guys want the airlines, and U/LCC pilots with a decent seniority number aren’t going anywhere...

There’s what, roughly 20,000 regional pilots?
Let’s say roughly half are captains, we’ll guesstimate 10% of which (~1,000) are lifers. That leaves 9,000 captains. It’s pure speculation as to how many are unhireable at the majors (DUIs, criminal records, significant training failures, no college degree, notable lack of professionalism, etc.) or have a weak application ... the pool starts thinning out. 2020 is going to be an interesting year for hiring.

https://i.imgflip.com/3kt72p.jpg



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Here’s a crazy thought: if just 500 Envoy captains had applications in with the majors and all of them were hired, that would account for only 8% or less of the pilots at the majors needed in 2020. Crazy.

That’s probably true, but even if we did get Compass’ 175s, how are we going to staff them? If attrition goes up like some are predicting, they might have some major issues.

I’d guess they wouldn’t hesitate to park 145s as needed to bring them on.

Good thought. I’m surprised Envoy isn’t more aggressive in obtaining new hires right now, I think there is an illusion of safety. Parking 145s in favor of 175s seems probable, but even without an increased need for staffing added planes to the fleet, I suspect attrition is going to be high in 2020.

These are times the industry hasn't faced before and as history tells, Envoy is not proactive when it comes to change or anything for that matter.

Envoy will be more than prepared with their long list of highly qualified pipeline candidates.

Pipeline as in flight instructors pipeline?

Yep. The number of guys either in a qualified academy or trying to get in that are all vying for that Envoy slot are incredible.

Dacuj, is that you.

Yup
Filler

The last new 175s will be delivered by June-ish. How has Envoy been staffing all the new ones? No more CRJs and 5 140s just went to the desert. Envoy will eventually become all 175s. Do the math, two a month. It will just take a long time. Everyone currently on property that has plans to be elsewhere will be by the time it happens.

What is actually happening is more mainline flying going to 175. Flow is going to go down slightly. Regionals will now going to hit 70 to 75% of all AAG flying.

As much as the airlines would love to be able to pay that percentage of pilots what they do, you know that scope prevents that. There would have to be a whole lot more change in the model to get that much scope relief.

He's talking about daily departures, and he's accurate. Mainline is 3k~ a day, Eagle system is 4k~.

Measuring by daily departures isn’t the best way to compare work loads. You can do three TYR turns for one transcontinental flight.

So are you saying that one departure and one arrival, with a 3 hour cruise segment in the middle is MORE work load than three quick turns/flight segments in the same time frame?

Depends, it’s not black and white. Of course eagle will have more departures due to flying shorter segments on average and mainline relying on eagle to feed the hubs and longer haul stuff.

Um. Yeah I know how that works. That’s not the point I was making.

More Envoy flying is good. Even quicker upgrades and that many more in the flow pipeline. I say that having flowed.

Pipeline patrol operators quaking with fear of losing their pipeline patrol pilots.

Prediction: dera hired UAL. On the other hand, deraa remains for 5 more years.

You astound me. More regional flying is absolutely the worst thing to happen. Adding more regional flying is nearly as bad as scope relief. We dont want to fly at the regional level, we want to move on. More flying at mainline means more pilots needed at mainline.

Granted, there is a balance as we need people moving at the regional level to keep the flow going and we certainly dont want to hamstring Envoy, but really more isnt better. I actually feel we struck a good balance with the PP flow rate. Even a steady 25 a month would be great so long as it was guaranteed.

More Envoy flying at the expense of mainline is good??? And you say that as someone that has supposedly flowed??? You expose yourself even more as the troll you are.

So if there are 7000 departures a day, by my math, that is 43% mainline, 57% eagle. Of course, my math may be bad.

Quicker than Day 1? They are force upgrading everyone who qualifies.

So, supposedly as an AA pilot, you think it’s good if YOUR flying gets given to someone making half of what you make?

Are they going to send me a CJO, or do I have to send them an application first?

Hiring has gotten so hot, many airlines resorting to offering CJOs after reading posts on APC. Make sure your spelling and grammar are decent.

You have to take the bogan test first

Maybe he means more of The Envoy’s flying is good going to Envoy rather than Republic or Skywest?

Read the original post. The troll’s comment was in response to mainline flying going to regionals.

I did and I’m not sure if he’s referring to just Envoy or the entire American Eagle system. If he’s referring to the entire system than that’s messed up, there should be more mainline flying than regionals


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Definitely and while I agree what regional flying there is should be shifted to the WOs, to the extent that it can be done at mainline, it should. Some routes will never support mainline flying. Delta is working towards eliminating 50 seat aircraft and if AA doesn’t do the same, they will see further erosion of product.

Yes, that is correct. AA's overall goal is to shrink the regional portfolio and put more flying on the WO. More flying at the Voy is always good.