Where is Charlie Bucket?
 

Where is my golden ticket idol today?

This is a good question.

Also, What is the shortest flow so far? 9 years?

I think he was a few months from flowing but China F’ed him real good.

Gotta watch out for those Oompa Loompas

Who is Charlie Bucket?

In about 5 years, he’ll be a 10 year EGL CA telling his shiny new FO that the company told him in Indoc he’d be at AA in 5 years too.

Every 10 years the flow adds 5 years. If you can make it before 2030 you are in, if not you are looking at 2035

He was supposed to flow in September. That aint happening anymore.

You guys are twisting the facts. Yes, I agree the flow has temporarily halted but this nonsense of 10 year flows is just blatantly false information. This fall as things swing back toward normal and furloughs aren't happening at AA/Envoy, then you'll see things stabilize and the flow restart just as it is supposed to work. Maybe add 6 months tops to the 5.5 or 6 year number you are talking about here and that will be your new flow time.

Has anyone ever flowed in 5.5 to 6 years? Nope. Time stop talking about something that doesn't exist.

Here's a fact. Not one pilot that envoy has hired has ever flowed to AA. None. Zero. Zip. Zilch. Your five and a half year flow will never happen for any pilots on property. You are a liar. A seller of false truths and a charlatan. More than likely you the even more worthless brother of former Chicago minion AL who spouts as many lies as you do.

Well after aa's September vacancy bid there training department will be clogged for at least til april.

From Piedmont and PSA...yes. From Envoy...no.

That hurts man...that hurts.

I'm an outsider, but curious about this; then who has been flowing all these years? No one?

"On January 14, 2014, American Airlines Group officially announced the rebranding of its American Eagle subsidiary as Envoy."

Everyone that has ever flowed to AA was hired by Eagle (or possibly an airline before Eagle). Envoy didn't start, in name at least, until Jan 2014. No Envoy hires have flowed yet.

a useless, albeit fun, fact.

As long as it ****es off THKooj, it’s worth posting.

Why are you interested in ****ing me off? This doesn't. All it does is make me shake my head wondering why you would be against your own company. You won't find anybody more pro-Envoy than me. I maintain a presence here to keep the viewpoint positive and to provide inside information when I can. I decided years ago that I was going to be overwhelmingly positive and I've not strayed from that viewpoint. It's only solidified my view of the company as one that is strongly established with worldwide recognition and one that is positioned to be wildly successful. Try being positive for a change. It can change your whole outlook.

We are positive.

Positive that you have swallowed so much KoolAid that you don’t have a REALISTIC view of what happens at Envoy.

Worldwide recognition??? Wildly successful???

That just goes to show how much you inflate things.

Even if that was true, which, again, your use of superlatives negates, Envoy will choose the option that either helps employees the least or flat out hurts them.

If Envoy was the end all, NO ONE would ever leave. Even you left!

Pre-bankruptcy hires. 2015/2016 EVY were set to move up this year but ya know, COVID.

what about guys hired in 2014? None of them have flowed? Just curious.

I actually have a friend hired in 2015, he was suppose to flow in August, now he has no idea if or when he'll flow.

The issue is you say things that are demonstrably false.

The flow time dropped to 7 years for the last guy to get hired pre-Corona.

This argument about flow times starts off with easy math, then gets clouded up by a bunch of estimates that nobody can accurately predict.

First the easy math. There are just over 2200 people in line to flow at Envoy. Flow has a cap of 20 pilots per month. The most junior guy on list, Mike Teavee, (and the next pilot hired) starts off looking at a flow date 9 years 2 months after AA starts hiring.

To improve that time, the flow requires attrition. To get to 5 years, the number of people flowing ahead of Mike needs to drop from 2200 to 1200. 1000 people ahead of him (nearly half) need to get out of the way in some fashion in the next 60 months.

The first year has the most movement, as there will be several who either don't pass training, get hired someplace else, or just plain quit Envoy because it sucks. The people getting hired someplace else are generally the more experienced ones, or they hold a real golden ticket. After the second year, attrition slows to a trickle.

Some will argue that the flow is only one way to AA and you can still get hired at AA through the normal application process. True, but being at Envoy does not seem to help those chances. In the last year, less than 1 pilot per month from Envoy has been a non-flow hire at AA.

Working against the flow, well, we are seeing that now. Flow is tied to AA monthly hiring and limited to 20 per month, with no backlog. Ideally for Mike, AA will only hire 60 pilots per month, every month, until he flows. However, if AA hires 120 in August, but 0 in September, Envoy will only flow 20 for the 2 months. If AA hires 120 again in October, Envoy only flows 20 pilots, September is a lost month for flow purposes.

Pre-corona, AA was looking at hiring 100+ per month. This is bad for Mike because that means every month, 40 extra guys are placed on the AA seniority list ahead of him from outside sources. After 5 years assuming everything else works out for Mike, he'll have an additional 2,400 pilots ahead of him on the seniority list compared to if AA only hired 60 per month.

Historically, attrition has been more dependable, but I doubt that attrition will continue in the future. Right now, 2/3s of the pilots on the list have been on property less than 3 years. Most are not competitive at other places because they are still either FOs or they are newly minted CA's without 1000 hours TPIC.

All of this could change if AA/Envoy decides to either increase flow rates or start hiring from Envoy through the application process. The primary reason for flow is to keep Envoy staffed while paying lower salaries. I don't see the flow cap getting raised until Envoy finds it difficult to recruit for new hire classes again.

The only other way I could see it happening is if someone starts a class action lawsuit and wins because Envoy advertised 5 year flow times that they never delivered on.

So I am slowing coming to terms with you in my head lol. There are three types of people on here, the sky will never fall group which you clearly belong too, the overly pessimistic group, which I can sometimes fall into and the lurkers that just want some information.

I am not knocking your enthusiasm at all, I may question its motive but none of us want the company to fail. I however, as do others it seems, do want accurate information out there and you tend to post over the top, clearly false or unverified information. That is the problem. If you want to cheerlead for Envoy/AA fine, but do so on facts. There are several truths that cant be argued.
1. AA is taking a huge gamble with its approach to the whole Covid situation. If it works, great more power to all of us, however if it fails it will leave them in a position that I dont feel they can easily recover from.

2. Envoy flows 20 a month when AA hires. You can throw sunshine and glitter all over the topic to try and make it a pretty picture, but that's what it is. If you do the math, its 9+ years for a recent new hire. You can talk about attrition and the like, but that is unverified and cant be counted on. Envoy advertised and told everyone a few years ago they would have a 5 year flow. They haven't nor will they be able to do that, so why believe much else.

3. Envoy management does nothing unless it benefits them. Anything they have given us was because they needed it, simple as that. I understand that companies need to make money, but you can still make money and treat your employees well, just because you want to treat them well.

4. The flow sucks. I would argue at this point it has done more harm then good as we give up so much for it. Until it becomes what it should have been back during BK when the pilot group foulishly voted against it, its nothing more than smoke and mirrors.

Good on you for being so positive, I will admit I need to work on that, but please stop the ra ra ra stuff and post hard numbers, facts and data that can be backed up in your support for the companies so that your point will get across instead of being buried.
I would agree with most all of this.
This is accurate as well. 1000 TPIC won't even get you looked at by AA. God help you if you haven't finished a degree or have some training mark, DUI or other blemish.

Seems like the degree, volunteer work, letters of recommendation and job fairs are the golden way in. They know you know how to fly an airplane, so time really isn’t that important compared to some other things mentioned. I know a guy who got a job offer with a few checkride failures and only 1000 pic due to the things mentioned above. But again that’s pre COVID.

It's difficult to get an exact read on what the off-the-street criteria actually are. You hear a lot of encouraging anecdotes, but then later it turns out that the applicant was female or otherwise demographically challenged.

Off-the-street at any top-tier (or second tier) major will require the degree with very few, very rare, very exceptional exceptions. If you don't have one, now might be the time to get one while things are quiet.

Those other whole-person factors are important too.

And it's obviously going to be a pretty tough market for a while once hiring resumes.

I have a buddy who got on OTS from a non-WO regional. His #1 goal was AA (retirement math), he had a lot of friends and acquaintances at AA, and he lobbied and networked hard. No affirmative action, but he did have some whole-person credentials. He's the only OTS civilian I know, not counting a handful who got on with Airways while they were hiring.

Well, this thread was fun for a minute.

Is this supposed to be a refutation? Diversity is one of AA's top priorities in recruitment, they openly state this at job fairs.

your entire persona is to **** people off. Pretty pathetic really.

Yep, it's a refutation. Last I checked, for every one black and/or female mainline pilot I see, I see seven or eight 29-year-old white guys, never mind all of the older white guys.
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Normally I don't respond to these type of posts but you in particular have been very consistent in going after me regarding everything I post. And I noticed that YOU DON'T EVEN WORK HERE! How should anyone take you seriously if you left?

I decided to respond because I have several YEARS of post history on TA and have been VERY consistent there, just as I have been in here with all of my posts.

So what? Why are you checking and why do you care?

I don’t think any of us really know (or can even guess) what will be a competitive application once the majors start hiring again.

It will likely be years before any of them hire again. UAL and DAL are threatening furloughs of up to 3000 pilots. That is, of course, a worst case scenario, but a furlough like that means they won’t hire new pilots for 5-10 years. AA seems better off on that count, but they still seem to be on the edge of furloughing or not. That means they are looking 18-24 months out and seeing themselves still likely over staffed. Even without a furlough they likely won’t hire for a year or two.

I’ll concede the caveat that COVID happened really fast. It could disappear just as fast. It could also get worse (or just stay bad). In all likelihood though, there will be no Legacy hiring for over a year, and it could be closer to a decade before we see the hiring environment we had 6 months ago.

We've got to play with the cards we've been dealt. Remember, it was my/our choice to accept employment with Envoy. This great country actually allows us to determine where we want to work. Imagine that!!
As it's been stated, zero "Envoy" pilots have flowed. While that comment is factual, it's also misleading in that Eagle pilots have flowed. The flow is what it is. 5.5 years or 9+. It's not happening until AA starts hiring again. WHEN they do, the "flow" will have significant merritt. Someone here mentioned that there are 2 airlines worth of pilots that are on the street, fully qualified and hungry for a job. Having a flow will at least mean that we have a path to move on. We have a job, while others have been not just furloughed, but fired due to their airline dissolving. While it may be trendy to bit*h on this site, I'm going to try and stay on the positive side. Covid threw something at us that we didn't see coming...and couldn't. We need to adapt. What was a reality 4 months ago, now isn't. Speaking for myself, I'm happy to still have a job.

Thanks, Tyrion, for a well reasoned fact based post.

Only thing I would add is a few years ago the Envoy “flow” was 25 years or so. (Yes, I recognize it was not technically a flow, but that is about how long pilots were at Envoy / Eagle before getting hired at AA.)

I really don’t know why people ******* on the flow. It should be a backup plan, and if the flow were to be 8-9 years, I would rather be stuck at envoy as opposed to another regional for 9 years and wondering “well if I had a flow I could be at a major airline right now...”