Envoy Flow Rate to AA rest of 2015-2016
 

Flow is expected to remain at 18 pilots a month through 2015 and only increase to 20 pilots a month for all of 2016. The low flow through numbers for 2016 are attributed to the amount of recalls returning. The flow-through is expected to get to June 2001 hires by the end of 2016 and the remainder of the 824 group will end approximately with October/November 2004 hires estimated by August 2017.

Instead of 2.5/5, it's still 8/16 through the end of 16. Goes to a 13 year flow at the end of 2017. Not sure about the upgrade at the end of 17. Let's call it 6/13.

Understandable provided there are no unforeseen situations that would slow that. That's 2 years to get through the present 824 group mandated to get X percentages of classes via arbitration. By then though a whole new paradigm could be in place that includes the consolidation of some carriers diluting flow projections for present non-824 Envoy pilots. It simply to far of a stretch to predict with any accuracy when a non-824 pilot will flow, let alone an Envoy new-hire of today.

I understand the desire to make a WAG "projection" look attractive to lure in pilots, but that is the primary point of such a WAG projection.

RJ Pilot in 3.....2.....1....good luck!

According to the great one Cujo, the flow is working as planned. So...Nothing to see here.


Good Luck!

PSA and Piedmont are going to merge, you heard it here first. A plan is in motion.

I'd bet pdt and envoy the second the last dash is parked, and expect that sooner than later. But hey what do I know.

Also for the upgrade you need to factor in that envoy is about to obtain more flying and block hours, especially comparing now to 2016. Also our attrition is spiking again as the entire freakin industry is hiring.

So are you saying the 100 CA vac bid that you guys were touting was a hoax?

Good Luck!

Recalls only have until March 2016 to make a decision. After that they lose their ability to return to AA. So your predictions for 2016 are not correct.

The rest of the post is pure conjecture. This reeks of a "flight attendant rumor" or "gate agent rumor" or "someone who knows someone who knows someone else said....."

Can you verify that, someone said in another thread that march was just when the company would start calling in reverse seniority order to force them to sht or get off the pot.

also if I remember correctly the 824 and pref hire agreement at envoy can not be diluted by a merger, has a life of its own. does not mean aag will not screw with it.

I don't believe thats how it works. According to my source, its MAY and thats when they will call the 800+ that are still out to make the final and irrevocable decision to come back. Your savior Cuj should explain it better.

What.... like 400 or so will return?

Good Luck!

Can you explain your fractions please? (Student)

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6yrs to upgrade/13 to flow. But in reality is 10/16.


Good Luck!

2.5/5 is what the company is saying for upgrade and flow. 2.5 from new hire to upgrade. 5 years from new hire to flow. In actuality, it's currently 8 years (or more) to upgrade and 16 to flow. So 8/16. I'm sure Cuj will be on here shortly saying that unless somebody discovers the fountain of youth, then it has to drop.

But facts are what they are. Right now, today, it's a min of 8 years to upgrade and 16 to flow.

Careful now, you can't tell them facts.

You my friend are a troll.

Good Luck!

Understood. A month ago I attended a meet and greet. I was told 3/6. The Envoy FO that was there is about to take his chances with Emirates at approximately 4500TT.

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That's because right now, today we are flowing the backlogged pilots who didn't flow in the decade after 9/11.

But that is just "facts" and isn't as cool of a soundbite as "16 year flow!!" Doesn't change the fact that pilots hired today will flow in 6 to 7 years at our minimum flow rate. The only thing that could affect that is if all hiring at AA stops and/or Envoy ceases to exist. Neither one is likely to happen. But keep pushing those cute soundbites you learned online.

The recalled pilots are returning as we speak. In most moths AA has ZERO street hires so that they can run classes made up entirely of Envoy pilots and recalls. In March 2016 the recalls end. That will free up additional class dates for either street hires and/or more Envoy flow throughs.

Another point to consider is this. Currently AA is running very small classes when compared to Delta and United. That won't last for long. Once they get their full cadre of instructors and check airmen up and running their class sizes WILL increase. Current class numbers are the absolute minimum for AA and their training department is playing catch up. Once they do catch up, class sizes will increase as will the amount of Envoy flow throughs.

LOL'd and thats the worst thing you can do now. Emirates. There is a reason pilots are quitting there like gangbusters and just recently, they lowered their mins. The big E isn't what it was 5-10yrs ago.

Might as well ride the envoy wave!

Good Luck!

AA is downsizing the fleet (40+ planes this year alone) and the increased efficiencies in the new contract will put a damper on hiring. Already has on the LUS side.

Hello PBS! Same thing will happen at envoy.


Good Luck!

RJ, I'm a student, not a child. Truth is, I just returned from the middle east. I'm sure there is attrition. But there is growth as well. If you go be ready to adapt.

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Aircraft on the way out is just one part of the story. The other part pertains to aircraft on the way in. The MD-80s are being retired as everyone should know. The 757-200s are also being retired.

But what about the aircraft orders? Have you taken a look at those numbers at all? The 757s are being replaced by A321s and the MD-80s by 737s among other aircraft such as the A319. This doesn't take into account new aircraft types such as the 787 or new variants such as the 777-300ER.

Long story short, AA's fleet continues to grow and be robust. Yes, older less efficient aircraft are being replaced by newer models. But the aircraft arriving are more than just replacements. The last aircraft order was for 460 narrow bodies from Boeing and Airbus. 460 more than replaces all MD-80s and 757s. It adds to the fleet numbers as well.

I can't remember the exact number off the top of my head, but the current fleet of MD-80s is around 100 and should be completely retired by 2017. There are also another 50 or so 757s that will be retired. A few older America West A320s will also be retired.

All totaled that is 150 to 200 aircraft retired in the next few years. The current aircraft order for AA more than eclipses that number. There's another 150 A320s alone due to arrive, not to mention the 737 orders, 787s, remaining 777s, and the A350 which should begin to arrive in 2017.

And in the midst of all that is an unprecedented amount of retirements at the combined AA. There is no getting around age 65. Like I said before, AA's class sizes WILL increase and will probably be larger than anything Delta or United is currently running. Larger class sizes = more Envoy flow throughs since Envoy's flow is a percentage of each class and not a hard number.

They are deferring deliveries. For 2014 or 2015 (can't remember) we are -43 mainline.

So no, the fleet does not continue to "grow", unless by grow you really mean shrink.

Oh, but we are up a lot of RJs.

I'm not disputing that. I'm looking beyond 2015. And you have to follow the bouncing ball here. They are deferring deliveries for the exact reason I mentioned in earlier posts:

The training department is playing catch up. That is why current classes are so relatively small. Once instructors, check airmen, sims, and other resources are in full gear the class sizes will increase and the aircraft deliveries will resume as normal.

Right now AA's training department can't handle all the deliveries and by extension all the required new hires. Hence the small classes when compared to Delta and Untied.

don't forget the 762 leaving and the 763 delayed for now

I believe this is incorrect. My understanding is the recalls have until May 2016 to accept recall or forfeit their employment at AA. However, they will be recalled in reverse seniority order, so the more senior could net get a call to accept or resign for many months depending on how many junior to them accept. The present belief is that most will not return, but that could mean perhaps 200 or more do (out of about 1000), so that alone could take the 2nd half of 2016 off the grid for flows. If half come back (unlikely, but possible) that could take a year or more.

Actually, based on your inaccurate assumptions above, that result is far better then just a Ferris Bueller 31-flavors rumor and it is your claim of 'conjecture" that is indeed itself conjecture. :cool:

For someone who doesn't work at Eagle and drives trucks and flies GVs, you sure know a lot about Eagle and spend a lot of time online typing about Eagle. Why don't you apply? We're offering 5 grand new hire bonus and you'll upgrade eventually ;)

What is the DOH for the Eagle flows as of this month.

Most jr to flow in the Aug 5th class was a 5/99 Doh. Most jr awarded and waiting for class is a 7/99. There are roughly 415 guys between 7/99 and 1/04. Only 142 people hired in 04. Will all those guys wait around to flow? Will all of those that do wait around choose to flow? So those numbers will decrease causing flow time to drop even more. I'd say in the next 16-24 months the flow will drop from 16 to 12 years.

Not Conjecture Skyvector...
 

This information was taken directly from the DFW LEC Treasurer after attending a union meeting regarding the flow-through to AA. In other news...there was a surprisingly large interview class this week at envoy...around 20 applicants. I have no idea what lies they are telling applicants to garner that kind of interest...

Come to envoy we're not republic?

I'll tell you why?

- E-175 arriving (SJs for new hires). Heck they might even be able to hold line in the 175 while the 145 guys still on reserve.
- The flow will keep the movement, if we can keep getting new hires
- 7/6/5 yr FOs would be able to upgrade in the next 1.5yr. Meaning upgrade will go down. Once it pass 2008hires will go down 2 years. Once it gets to the 2011 hires...it will go Dow very quickly.
- anyone hire here will basically reserve a spot into AA, while trying to move to other places.

It's not all doom and gloom. Not because our last 3 years sucked, means the next 3 have to suck. If we don't get new guys, guess what? You will stay stuck where you are.

I don't sell lies. Yes, the upgrade is 8yrs, the flow will keep going down as the old guys leave. So in reality anyone hired now should be in a good position whitin the next 5-8 years. Yes, it's not a fast upgrade, but still if you go to PSA/Mesa it will take you about the same amount of time to get hired elsewhere. That's assuming a brand new 0 time P121 hire.

Exactly, we passed the Bk and getting in trouble stage already.

Good Luck with ya'lls new members of the MEC.

The Cuj will keep milking that cow till she dies! But from the bottom of my heart, Good Luck! I really mean it.

Good Luck!

How's the Gv treating ya?




LOL

Good! OGG tomm!

Good Luck!

Lol...


Yeah, I left eagle to fly the Concorde at British airways. So glad to have gotten out of there too!!

We believe you! We mean that completely !

We believe you !