Rumor from on high is here is an announcement coming regarding envoys 175. Heard directly from the big kahuna there

Big announcement Friday, right?

Who are you referring to as the "big kahuna"? Pedro? Pool?

News of the 175s. Good or bad?

Yay, PBS. 😐

Can you say what the rumor is or do you even know?

So kind to drop that gem with no further info.

Even if you really did hear that, why make this post? What is the purpose?

Firsties! I know something you don't!

I think it's a guarantee that envoy gets some options of the 175, if for no other reason then the 41st 175 triggers a vote on PBS.

Isn't RW in ORD today...
 

Isn't RW in Chicago doing today doing a base visit? I'm sure you probably just asked him...

Can't say when, but soon.
Can't say who
Good.

You're such a tease.

...and he lied right to your face again.

From my connections GOOD news :D

GOOD news only comes in the form of pay raises and contract improvements. We already know they are accelerating the 175 program. We also know they are going to do the 90 options. Announcing we are getting the 175s that went to compass that was promised to American Eagle isn't good news. Or getting the 175s republic has parked is not good news. So I'm not holding my breath on this announcement.

This, exactly. I don't want more planes at the regional level, I want more planes (and therefore pilots) at mainline. Second best is higher pay here. Third best is the public shaming or firing of certain middle and upper managers

I heard 40 more E-175's, but that was weeks ago, not 90. The AA S80's are staying a bit longer to cover WO and non-WO "can't do" type stuff, but they will be gone within a couple of years and the mainline fleet size is expected to continue to shrink modestly by losing that fleet along with the 190's, so that may crimp total RJ counts at WO's making the 90 option highly questionable.

It should be of no surprise that Envoy will get more E175's, but total fleet (and pilot) count WILL decline unless they can muster in 35-40 new-hires in every month consistently for 5+ years for F/O Bucket to have a chance at looking inside the AA chocolate factory.

And our QOL just went further down the.....

http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016...ce9b1adb36.jpg

So we vote no

Thats an AA toilet, not an envoy toilet.

According to AAG's announced fleet plan for this year, ENY's MEC says they are set to exceed scope limitations in the number of RJ's by the end of this year. Unless APA grants scope relief (which I doubt) there's no way those 90 options will ever be exercised. Embraer is also going to be transitioning to the E2 version, which has a MTOW outside scope limitations as well.

We might see some of the Compass and Republic planes come to Envoy to replace 140/145's, but won't see any of the options unless something drastic occurs.

True, but the Alaska/Virgin merger will inflate codeshare ability and this area has some potential for serious exploitation. I have some uneasy concerns about this situation and so should anyone already at AA or planning on coming here and being junior in the future.

Just a thought.........

That would definitely be an option, but so is management failing ENY again.

Not a peep out of eaglefly about the flow until he flowed, then it was doomed to fail. Now everything is OK if you are already at AA but anyone else, doom and gloom. Anyone else see this trend with eaglefly's predictions? It's like a "I'm on board, pull up the ladder" psychosis.

Ummm.....no.

EagleFly has consistently said he hopes the flow works as advertised and wishes the best for everyone at Envoy while stating well-placed reservations about DP's flow scheme (and rational reasons for same), to which you and a few other Envoy zealots have taken great exception and repeatedly attempted to gang rape him for daring to be skeptical about DP promises. You have consistently and repeatedly attempted to smear him and misrepresent both his motives and his arguments while doing so.

You should be ashamed of yourself FlameNSky and I'm embarrassed for you.

Whether you agree with eaglefly or not, you have certainly fueled his fire by paying him so much attention.

I think aircraft will be shuffled. Seems to be DP's motis operandi.

Embracing revisionist history is about all that's left with him. Obviously few, if any fall for it outside the circle. I'm still waiting for him to back-up his claims I said it would take Chocolate Charlie or present new-hires to flow to AA.in 10 years. I'm also still waiting for someone to do us all a favor and post Envoy ALPA's recent official statement of Flows transitioning during Letter T return.

You never get that stuff, only this kind of stuff. I think they've passed the point of diminishing returns and actually HURT Envoy recruitment now, but their egos won't let them stop.

Oh well, onward and downward......

It's Friday!!! Let's hear some good news.

So says a SkyWest Pilot who comes to envoy threads to trash a company he doesn't work for. Considering its source, your embarrassment is laughable. I would rather be the guy with the sports car (big truck, airplane, boat) than the awkward kid from across the street that always stares at it and runs across the street to constantly talk about it. Let us not forget, eaglefly is only at AA because of the flow "scheme". If I am shameful, you are pathetic. Good Luck in your job search. Let me know if you need a personal recommendation. ;)

This probably fits in better over here and builds on some of the numbers going forward

As it currently stands AAG is allowed a regional fleet of 75% of its mainline narrowbody fleet. In addition, from 2016 onward 40% of AAG mainline narrowbody fleet may include RJ's from 66-76 seats with total count of all RJ's including small and large RJ's must fit within that 75% total.

Assuming the MD-80 fleet is parked, the 757 is reduced down to roughly 25 internationally configured models and all A321 and B738 deliveries are taken plus the 20 E190s in limbo at the end of 2017 you finish with a mainline narrowbody fleet of
A319: 125
A320: 50ish (some early models have been retired)
A321: 220
B738: 305
B757: 25
E190: 20
Total: 720

Taking that final number multiplied by 75% you get an allowed total RJ count of 540 with 288 of those allowed to be between 66-76 seats. Today's RJ count with outstanding orders accounted for include

165: E70 E75 operated between Compass, RAH and Envoy
118: CR9 operated between Mesa and PSA
69: CR7 operated by SKW, PSA and ENY (22 currently count as large RJ)
118: EMB 145 operated by ExpressJet, TSA and ENY
132: CR2 operated by SKW, ExpressJet, Air Wisconsin and PSA
11: DH8-300 operated by PDT (only 300's count toward total)

283 large RJ's if 22 CR7s are reconfigured and 613 total RJs. While I agree that the large RJ fleet is growing there is going to be some serious pain among small RJ operators as AAG removes small RJs to stay within total RJ fleet count. I'll let everyone else speculate where those 60-80 removals come from. AAG's plan is no different than Delta or United in regards to RJs they're just a few years behind.

How the A320NEO and B737MAX play into those numbers or if CR7 and E70 eventually get removed to allow more E75 or CR9 options to be executed is speculation at this point

Good info. I don't see Parker violating APA scope, so that will mean small RJ reductions. I think some operators will cease to exist, but that depends on feed contractual issues and the individual carriers ability to attract and retain the primary commodity that is most critical, that being pilots. Ceasing to exist for many may simply mean consolidation as that is the best way to retain that critical commodity vs. kicking them loose only to lose pilots that have no interest in starting at the bottom of another regional, especially an AAG one and most especially if they were captains.

IMO, consolidation requires compromise to achieve effective harmony and those who want to play will have to be WILLING to play. For the AA flow, I think that means once the 824 are finished, the flow essentially becomes a contractual issue more easily modifiable. At present, when considering the size of each of the three WO's, the percentage of flow slots isn't that far off from being equal and I think that will be a component of the future. It will mean compromise though, but if done correctly, will actually provide more predictability for pilots even if the timeline for some may slow to accommodate others. That's what occurred in the past with BizEx and I see a strong probably of history repeating itself. This is speculation though.

The 20 E190 are going away according to Parker.

Yes. Delta and United have chosen to rebuild their mainline ops (although a significant stable of large RJ's will remain), whereas Parker continues his romance with the RJ. It's a gamble and if the regional pilot shortage throws a bucket of cold water on that romance, it could put AA in a very tenuous competitive disadvantage in the future.

Do you honestly think he'll consolidate wholly owneds before bringing others in first? I think an air wisconsin acquisition is more likely in the near future than what you described. It makes more sense for him to try to drive all the other regionals out of business, or simply to a weaker point where they can be acquired for cheap. It builds up his wholly owned model, supports his flow baby, and helps insure that AAG has control over the very last of the available regional lift going into the years ahead.

Re: 'the math" and facts.
Fact are historical not projections. With all the collective wisdom here I'm surprised this fact has not been addressed.
Further, verification of projections can ONLY be surmised from the fidelity to past covenants and agreements. AAG is or is not honoring those to date.
If yes then valid projections can be made with the caveat that events may force alteration of planned flow.
If AAG is not giving attention to those agreements when there is a surplus then the projections are no better than the agreements themselves.
What say you?

Management's treatment of current flow agreements isn't an accurate predictor of what will happen in the future if it is the sole variable being evaluated.

Where have I stated one will occur before the other ? "Consolidation" has many forms and paths and outside acquisition is but one method. As for Parker driving "all" the other regionals out of business (or thinking he can) and/or of the belief he can "acquire them for cheap", Delta just proved they are willing to pony up the ca$h to block any monopoly in that respect and you can be sure UAL will too. If you think Parker has all the aces in the deck and can play them at his leisure, you are terribly misguided IMO.

The dynamics of this industry don't cater themselves to any one player and all too frequently all of the players are controlled by the dynamics of the situation, not the other way around. Timing and uncontrollable factors usually dictate each situation and no one has a crystal ball in that respect, including Parker so assuming and planning your future on that is a Fool's errand.

Let's face it, Parker is better at REacting then he is at being PROactive anyway.

Then what is........optimistic assumption with no foundation ?

Not once did I say he "had all the aces" or whatever other verbiage you want to use. I said it would make sense to try.

To put it in your words: try not to get carried away.

Why put words in my mouth?

You should be agreeing with that statement since it is how those "salesmen" were justifying their projections. "He's different than AMR, new management keeps their word, etc..."

It seems you're more concerned with attacking anything I say regards of what it actually is.