lots of MD11 pilots on property waiting to change seats.

With how we do system bids and with the foot coming off the hiring accelerator I’m surprised anyone in this class took a 757 spot over a WB. Anyone coming on property now into that fleet may be stuck on it for a LONG time.

Also there is still a big backlog of folks from the MD/757/Airbus waiting to go to the 777/767 fleet so they are gonna have to get backfilled. Would still expect to see NH in those fleets.

It kinda depends on your definition of “LONG” while there may not be as much movement as the last 3-5 years. There still will be a fair amount of movement due just to retirements.

I heard hiring 50 a month this year still.

There are 757 FOs who bid 777 in December of 2020 who will not train until next summer. I would consider 2.5 years to train into an award an insanely long time especially given the record amount of hiring we have done.

Hard to say what the future holds, but if our next bid is still a year out and is much smaller than the last one, we may be looking at a similar timeline. I hope not, but who knows.

Realignment bid coming soon

Curious where you heard this from? I assume you meant 2023. They put out at RTAG that they’re back to 200-250 a year starting next year, and a recent email went out to those waiting in pool they’re projected to hire 1,900 in the next 10 years.

Could be way off base, but I believe that 1,900 number that has been bandied about is a minimum. As in the minimum required to cover forecasted retirements as well as growth from newly delivered aircraft.

Gotcha, thanks! Hope that’s true

599 2022 and 618 2021…… +/-

Even if this were true, it would be a while until it had any effect. As stated before, there are still a lot of pilots who had awards from 2020 and 2021 who are still waiting for training. All of those pilots would have to train before any realignment bid trained. Unless, of course, they cancelled those other bids, but that would open up a whole new set of problems since the company has trained new hires in seats ahead of pilots on the property who had those awards.

With these numbers, FedEx only needs 1000 more to completely cover retirements through 2032 based off numbers on APC FedEx profile.


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Not sure I’m following your logic here.

According to our ALPA page we have 1682 mandatory retirements through 2031. If they intend on staying the exact same size as we are at this moment, then we still need to hire at least that many in that timeframe.

We also still have additional airframe deliveries through 2025 to the tune of ~25 767s and ~7 777s depending on how many they have taken since September which will require another 400 pilots.

We currently have just under 6000 pilots on property. Worst case is needing to replace roughly 1/3 of that number in the next 8 years.

NICE TRY! you are only allowed to post negative comments or emphasize doom and gloom on APC.

The expected 1900 pilots retiring was mandatory retirement number and current rate has been roughly 2x the mandatory rate. 30-40% of pilot group will be retiring in next 10 years assuming no growth. I’m sure it will be a moving target over time but safe to say a lot of hiring just for attrition.

If we park all of the MD-11s we end up net negative on airplanes even with the new deliveries.

As an outsider I was just going of the information that was available to me on a basic math level. Your analysis seems much more accurate. Which I appreciate!


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Yeah and if my aunt had a d!ck she’d be my uncle.

Why would we make an assumption that all of the MDs would be parked without any replacements? Has there been any guidance to support that position?

That class brings us just over 6000 pilots on the seniority list 🥳

Hate to burst your party bubble, but not yet. Seniority numbers only update in June, so with retirements since then, we are still at about 5920. Then we will have pilots retiring on Dec 31 which will probably bring us below 5900.

Class drops..
 

It’s actually 34 767s. So at current staffing rate for those fleets, it’s probably closer to 600 pilots needed. As you said, those deliveries are currently scheduled to be done by June 2025. With the current rate of retirements and early retirements, that’s another 800 pilots. For a total of about 1400 needed in the next 30 months. That’s for a net gain of 32 aircraft, not staying at current size.

Yes you are correct. I was mistakenly subtracting the 10 767s scheduled to be delivered in FY 2023 from the earnings report.

Where do you find deliveries and options outstanding? I can't find anything on FRIS or PFC.

Page 17 of the 10-Q on the investor relations page.

The economy taking a ******* would be a solid reason to park the MDs without replacements. Even if we park half the MD fleet and half the airbus fleet (both relatively small fleets) we end up net negative on airplanes. It won't take much for us to shrink, honestly.

Technically he's right. We currently have over 6000 pilots on the seniority list.... first time in FedEx history. He did not say "active pilots."

Class drops..
 

If we have a soft landing on the economy, no airplanes get parked. If there is a worse pandemic then what. If the Ukraine was escalates to WW3, then we are all ******. If if if…we can if to infinity.

By the way, we have more airbuses than we do 777. So I guess the triple is also a relatively small fleet? Maybe if then half the triples get parked?

Yeah, that's what he meant and what matters. SMH:rolleyes: I bet you would argue that a $1 and hour pay raise would technically be a pay raise and the first time in our history that we were over $336 per hour.

So in June, we will technically lose pilots from the seniority list and our seniority list would technically be shrinking.

When other airlines discuss the size of their seniority list they discuss it with all the pilots on it, active or not. They use the term "active pilots" to describe pilots who actively fly for the company. It really is that simple, and yes that's probably what he meant.

Yeah, because a pilot on the seniority list is either active, or retired, not. Point is, we have less than 6000 pilots on property. We have even less than 5920 active pilots. It really is that simple, and not what is implied by stating we have over 6000 plots on the seniority list.

New guy here…. What is the reason the new guys show up immediately but retirees only drop off in June?

The company only updates seniority numbers in June. They go through the seniority list then and remove all of the retired pilots or pilots that have left for other reasons and re-assign seniority numbers based on the pilots on the list at that time. New hires have to be put on the list and given a number, so they simply add numbers to the list, even though there could have been pilots who have left. Could they do it monthly, I guess. Does it really matter, not in my opinion. The only thing that should matter is where you are bidding in your seat, which is updated immediately.

Thanks pinseeker

In simpler terms, They only update the Seniority List once a year (July 1).