Buying up lines to meet the spread, that's section 4.a.2.c.vi.

Of note
-777 lines make up 27% of all lines.
-SAM in January was 69.3, in February, ~70.5.
-777 Memphis lines stayed constant for both months.

Here's your scenario...

Even if A300/757/MD11/767 domestic BLG averages all went down to 60CHs, and 767O/777A were 68CH, and 777M were 78 (what its been the last two bid periods). We'd still only have a SAM ~65CH

So let's go further...

The A300/757/MD11/767 Domestic BLGs would have to fall to 58CHs before we'd enter 4a2c territory with a SAM ~63.75CH.

Assuming 777M stays constant at 78CH...78 - 58, equals a 20CH gap. They could enter 4a2c and reduce BLGs buy closing the gap, but they'd have to buy up the lines to an average of 65CHs.

This would satisfy 4a2c.ii/iii, but most pilots would only be taking a 3CH hit to their min BLG. Still saves company money, but it wouldn't be a 'huge' hit to the pilots.


But now lets go further into sectoin 4a2 with regards to furlough.


Pat D. was fear mongering that ~29 domestic cities would lose day service. Dont think* that'd drive SAM from ~70 to less than 64CH....

60 domestic flights a day doesn't seem equivalent to an 8.5% reduction in flying/CHs with regards to SAM.

But running with that scenario. The company has made their way to 4a2c.vi with the buy-up values enabling them to lower min BLGs (4a2c)

But then there's 4a2c.vii....They need to publish a bid to re-balance flying/manning, effectively bringing that split closer together. This last bid is in no way solving the manning issue and the spread will remain.

It's basically keeping M777 Captains at status quo (when factoring in retirements/etc), and M777 FO's from ~720 to ~800. And I'd argue we'd have to have another bid with a true excess for an 8.5% overall reduction of flying.

Adding more pilots to the 777 fleet and diluting those lines would seem to make the bid pack highly innefficient. You're talking ALOT of deadheads.

Now, whats cheaper? Paying for business class deadheads or buying up lines?? Dont know, can't do that math.

Continuing on with furlough scenario...

The SAM still has to fall below 56CHs, section 4.A.2.c.x.
That's a 20% decrease from the current ~70.5CH SAM.

But after all that, with SAMs below 56CHs, the company can finally implement section 23.A.1.a, which states, "no furlough shall occur pror to the application of Sections 4.A.2.b. and c."

----
So we lose postal contract starting October 2024. We need 2 months of the SAM <64CHs to emplement 4a2c.

Oh, but wait, Peak starts November. And that'll likely keep us above 64CHs to close out 2024.

So the 2 month clock starts in January 2025. We also need a system bid. Then we also need the SAM to drop below 54CH. Which to get there from 70CH, is an additional 12.5% of reduced flying on top of the lost postal contract (8.5% plus 12.5% equals 20%).

And this all assumes no retirements. How many people are retiring between now and March 2025?
At least 156 through end of 2024.

---
So are furloughs possible? They're always possible.
Likely? No.

Hence my original statement, Pat's fantastical story about 4a2b by February, 4a2c by May, and furloughs by October (postal contract)....

Well written. Thank you.

That audio clip was likely just management attempting a direct negotiation with the pilot group by spreading FUD in a way that some might actually believe it. It is likely that the info shared was scripted intentionally for that conversation. And of course the flight test guys who were there, they likely believe it because they think that and are being told that they are in the "inner circle of management pilots" despite that being far from the truth, they're likely being used as pawns used to spread FUD.

I'm sure someone at the company has been tasked with finding out whether it's cheaper to hack up 777 trips to lower SAM, even with the increased DH cost. They have that number, somewhere.

As I said, I don't think there will be a furlough. However, thinking that it is impossible if the company wants it is naive.

Looking at past SIG notes and bidpacks, the percentage of reserve lines in each bidpack is very similar. It is also similar to the percentage during the height of COVID when we were flying a ton. As I said in my previous post, like in the past 4a2b, the company could decide to move those reserve pilots to regular lines, diluting the BLG for regular lines and the bidpacks.

Once the SAM drops below 64 hours for 2 consecutive bid months, we could be in 4a2c. Yes, the company must publish a bid, but that doesn't mean that they have to train it out before there is a furlough or that the bid must be published before entering 4a2c. They could publish that bid knowing the SAM will put us in 4a2c.

Yes, there can't be a furlough until the application of 4a2b/c, but what does application mean? There is nothing in the contract that says the SAM must fall to 56 hours for the application of 4a2c to be satisfied. Entering 4a2c would satisfy that requirement.

I will state again, I don't think this will happen. However, the company controls most of the cards in this game.

Higher probability that we furlough than you posting anything in favor of the pilot group. 😡

Neither is going to happen.

He's the same company shill who has been posting on here under different names since negotiations began, seems he finally figured out how to not get banned.

He tries to find ways to rationalize how us getting a subpar contract is really in our best interest. Whatever he posts - it is not in favor of our pilot group. I find it best to ignore him.

No one uses information from these forums alone to make important decisions (I hope?!). That said, I usually take what Stan446 and Justin post and believe the exact opposite. It works out well.

Success! My job is done!

So providing what the contract actually says is anti-pilot?

Who is advocating for a sub-par contract? What I see is if anyone attempts to discuss the pro's and con's of a particular subject, if they mention anything other than the "perfect" ideas you propose, they are a company shill and have multiple user names. That seems to go on a lot here.

I heard on the line this week that FedEx May have just signed/renewed the postal contract. Managers at ramps have also seen things that point to this being true. Crossing fingers.....

Of course it is being renewed. The talk about it not is all hot air and tactics. USPS really has no where else to go to partner up with. And the relatiuonship is 40 years on now. About to be 50 years.