The real question is - when we're these captains with tricks up their sleeve hired? My point is anyone with the seniority to be making 300K+ would not have considered jumping ship for a pax carrier ie: they were hired around 1994 - 1995 timeframe or sooner. :eek:

duplicate post

Hey Albie --- is that second value the number hitting age 65 in the "next 365 days" or "by Dec 31 in that year"..??

If it's the former then that means only 2 more guys are hitting 65 from Dec 21, 2014 until Dec 21, 2015

Really??

Perhaps just that first value in the second column is off

There must be some reason Flight Mgmt is cleared to hire 200 pilots next year

???

Well there were 2004 hires making $300k plus - until they excessed all the HKG Airbus CA's on paper anyhow. It was a good 4 year ride while it lasted... 50% seniority in the right seat making WB CA pay!


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Yeah Albie,
I didn't check the ALPA website, just went off what BM told me last week while he was on the JS.
But I'm betting with early and medical retirements we will see over 2000 in the next 10 yrs easily.

The second column is the change during the previous year. On 12/21/2015 his seniority would have changed by the 85 guys that hit their 65th birthday since 12/21/2014. I can't speak to the 2. Everytime I look at that calculator that first change number is strange. It is referencing some unknown date.

Lot's of Whining over here. How about after 20 years at UPS and being on the Bottom 5% of every Left Seat Aircraft. Except ANC. So the Worst trips/Reserve for another 10 years. And not Hiring one Pilot for 7 years. It Blows.

A 20 year guy at FDX, is probably Half way up the list of the Wide-body Seats? Or Higher-

All true. The slope of the curve picks up in 3-4 years, but for the next couple its about 100/year. It is definitely getting better EVERYWHERE. It will be interesting to see what shakes out on the calculator or ALPA positive rate re: retirement numbers in January. Not every retiring pilot leaves an FCIF. In fact, it seems most don't. How many really bailed this year? We will know in a month or so...

And for the record, I feel blessed to work here, and I am grateful to have gotten hired here when I did. When I point our numbers and trends, its not a complaint about my situation, but simply an analysis of what is going to happen the NEXT 10 years. I am one of those lucky guys Hoya mentioned, and hit the WB pay rate at year 7. I'll find out tomorrow if I go back on the rate sometime in 2015. I like the crews I fly with, love the international flying, and I've had a blast here. If I could "snap" my fingers and take a new hire along my career slope I think they'd be thrilled. My concern is guys like my old Squadron CC who is here on the bottom of the 757 sitting A reserve. What will life be like for a guy hired here in 2015? How quickly will he/she have options? Looking at the 10 year numbers it may be a little better than I originally thought, but it will not be the 94-96 hiring wave nor the postal wave type advancement. And with the DC-10 and 727 gone, if you hate hub turning there aren't many places to run and hide from that kind of flying anymore. You can (perhaps) join me in HKG as a new hire, but otherwise it looks like 1.5 hour callout on A reserve for a while on the 757. For some folks--that's great. Some guys LIKE the hub turns, especially if you can hold a hometown line. But ANC MD-11, DC-10 or 727 SO day trips, etc are not an escape anymore.

I understand what you are saying. And yes, its probably better at FedEx. But a 20yr WB captain at FX isn't halfway up the seniority list. Probably about 80%.

I just went over 19 years here. I'm an MEM MD-11 CAP and I'm probably sitting around 64% in the left seat. Until recently, I would have been around 55% in the left seat in ANC. The last excess and vacancy bid have made ANC more senior. YMMV.